Mish vs. Peter Schiff

[juggle]

After the stock market tanked beginning in September, I started reading about Peter Schiff. I read both his books cover to cover and felt like I'd be missing a huge opportunity if I didn't invest through him right away.

I finally invested in late October.

Then I found out about Mish through this forum:
His blog is located at:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

After following Mish for a couple of months now, I am convinced that his predictions are better than Schiff. Furthermore, Mish calls Schiff dangerous because Schiff is charasmatic and is right on "SOME" things. But overall, he thinks Peter is wrong short term (1-2 years) and that hyperinflation won't happen.

Mish has been predicting deflation (which we are in right now) while Schiff was predicting inflation and hyperinflation (wrong).

Now here is the problem. I've invested with Schiff.
Mish is predicting a technical rally until possibly March. I think Schiff's portfolio will do okay until then. But I will probably sell my positions afterwards.

What do you guys think? Mish or Schiff? Who is correct?

 

[silverlinkx2]

I'm by no means an economic expert, but what schiff said is that while we are technically in (possibly were now) in a deflationary period, it is temporary in nature and a byproduct of so many people hoarding cash, so many companies deleveraging and selling assets to get cash, so many people saving instead of spending and investors having no trust in investing in anything so they're resorting to cash as well. However, the dollar has started to lose a ton of its value recently, and the size of the monetary base has exploded, which means that inflation is bound to happen sooner or later.

 

[danfinance2008]

the only way wall st is going higher is because the govt said it would do anything and print anything to keep them up.

no one predicted this

our goverment selling out the people of the usa to keep the rich rich

over 2/3 our economy is retail and people are to dam scared to spend. they have had 1/2 there life savings wiped out on wall st, they seen gas hit 4.00 a gallon, they have seen the greed of our govt and the list goes on.

i cannot see how anyone can predict this was coming

yes the financial crisis was predicted and the sub prime

 

[clb09]

But who will be right by June 2009.

I am not so much interested in who WAS right.

The next 6 months will most likely be far more volatile than the last 6.

To wit:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081221160957.e5z1c9vr&show_article=1

The IMF has called for global fiscal stimulus of about two percent of GDP, equivalent to some 1.2 trillion dollars. "Our forecasts are already very dark but they will be even darker if not enough fiscal stimulus is implemented," Dominique Strauss-Kahn told BBC radio.

and this:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081221154025.lrwl34xi&show_article=1

"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.

"There is an almost total paralysis from which no-one is escaping," he said, adding that any recovery -- pencilled in by optimists for the end of 2009 and the start of 2010 -- could be delayed if confidence is not restored.

The INTERNATIONALISTS want to make sure that Central Banks Worldwide print up HUGE SUMS OF INSTANT MONEY.

NOTHING LIKE THIS HAS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE WITHOUT THE BACKING OF A HARD ASSET LIKE GOLD OR SILVER.

Actually it has happened before...but deflation was never the result.

Now, what is the opposite of deflation? Hmmmmmm.

 

[Conza88]

Schiff has been saying hyperinflation long term... which is what WILL happen...

The elites know this... so I believe they will convert to a new world currency or amero style, BEFORE US hyperinflation takes place.

They'll shift before all the "pain" starts to take place.

 

[Paulitician]

Late October? Did you luckily manage to start investing right after the stock market crash? Because if so, I'd stay with Peter Schiff's advice. I think it will pay off in 3 to 5 to 7 years. I do think the dollar will collapse, but it could take half a year or year yet (and the dollar could rally to 90 until then). Ergo, dividend paying foreign stocks would be a good investment--that's all Peter Schiffs company, EuroPac, does as well as store gold at the Perth Mint, but it's not the only things he's suggesting. His investment advice is more diversified than that. That said, it wouldn't hurt to take some of Mish's advice, because out of all the Austrian bear crowd, he's the one who's been the most accurate with his calls. The only way Peter Schiff's investment advice totally fails is if we have a prologed deflationary great depression. So pick and choose between the two of them, is my answer.

 

[The_Orlonater]

Schiff has been saying hyperinflation long term... which is what WILL happen...

The elites know this... so I believe they will convert to a new world currency or amero style, BEFORE US hyperinflation takes place.

They'll shift before all the "pain" starts to take place.

+1

 

[jonahtrainer]

What do you guys think? Mish or Schiff? Who is correct?

I pay attention to both of them. They are both correct on a lot of things and are both very intelligent. I think Schiff has a bigger picture view and a longer time horizon than Mish. Mish actually seems conflicted in some of his writings and does not seem to fully understand the monetary role of gold. His in-depth gold posts are written by someone else. Mish and I actually 'violently disagree' often it seems. At least he is professional about it.

If you are going to have other people manage your money then I would at least have some diversification. Usually people manage other people's money because they are not very good at managing their own. Why keep 2% when you can keep 100%?

I have my own theory that we are in a deflationary credit contraction. The FRN$ system does not so much collapse as evaporate. The FRN$ will be the last layer, after Euro, GBP, etc., to evaporate through hyperinflation. The evaporation could take years .... I think the US tentacles are deeper and more pervasive than either Mish or Schiff give credit.

 

[Gideon]

Hyperinflation will usher in the "Amero"

Schiff has been saying hyperinflation long term... which is what WILL happen...

The elites know this... so I believe they will convert to a new world currency or amero style, BEFORE US hyperinflation takes place.

They'll shift before all the "pain" starts to take place.

I agree that we are destined for hyperinflation, as that is the only trick remaining for the banksters (remember that $700 Billion - read $4 Trillion they have yet to trickle into the economy?) BUT I think that any new currency will be introduced AFTER hyperinflation catalyzes a clamor for "change" from the sheople.

Cash infusion will also greatly assist in pacifying the masses, thus maintaining the charismatic popularity for Barry Soetero, aka the new POTUS.

 

[raiha]

I'm reading Crashproof right now and you gotta hand it to Schiff, he was uncannily prescient. Amazing. Amazing. All the other dipsticks who are running things do not even seem to know how to apply common sense...and all the other Central Banks follow suit like lemmings over the cliff.
I like both of these guys hugely. Mish and Schiff, they feel like part of the family.

 

[aravoth]

I don't think Schiff has ever been a "short term" guy. You know the ol' saying "currents events predict future trends". I think Schiff is right, But Then I also know that his analysis is a 2-5 year window. Just like everything else he has ever said. Mish is also right, but he is more of a short term person, and when I say short term I mean anything from 2 months to 2 years.

Personally, I don't think either of them are wrong.

 

[Fox McCloud]

this is my take, though I am by no means an expert--I think the dollar is deleveraging right now--people are selling commodities and such to get as much dollar as they can to settle their dollar-denominated debt....this creates additional demand on the dollar and forces the USD Index up, which makes it seem as though it has greater value.

Of course, in this situation, it only lasts so long, then the dollar just tanks, tanks, tanks, and if the nozzles were on full blast, the dollar will just...well, it won't be pretty.

 

[TruthisTreason]

Both makes some good points, but I believe we are in an inflation of the money supply. We may have some deflation on certain items, but I'm not seeing it at the grocery store. I'm still having to pay a 20% fuel surcharge for electricity, as well.

I sense we are seeing a global interest rate cut war. Our Fed and government hope to devalue our dollar in order to help correct our trade policy. Make our exports cheaper and our imports higher.

 

[Chase]

Inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon. So is deflation. Do you see the government burning piles of money? No? See them printing piles of money? Yes?

We have price deflation (as a result of a bubble collapsing) and we do have a reduction in the inflation rate, but the chances of seeing real deflation are very low.

 

[lodge939]

the dollar index hit 78 on thursday - if it continues on this trend these falling consumer prices will soon reverse upwards

 

[jon_perez]

Japan has been on quantitative easing for ten years plus, not only did it *NOT* suffer hyperinflation, it's currency has appreciated heavily.

Why do the people who say that the dollar will weaken because of all the "money printing" (e.g. low interest rates) - people like Jim Rogers - why are they buying yen when the BoJ has been doing for the last ten plus years what the Fed is only now doing?

 

[lodge939]

Japan has been on quantitative easing for ten years plus, not only did it not suffer hyperinflation, it's currency has appreciated heavily.

Why do the people who say that the dollar will weaken because of all the "money printing" (e.g. low interest rates) - people like Jim Rogers - why are they buying yen when the BoJ has been doing for the last ten plus years what the Fed is only now doing?

currency strength is also a verdict on a country's economy by the international community.

 

[tropicangela]

Schiff says in the interviews I've seen that he isn't predicting short term.

 

[ArchPaul]

Schiff says in the interviews I've seen that he isn't predicting short term.

Right. He's a strategic thinker.. at least* 2 years ahead, and usually 5-10 and longer. Also in terms of what is logical, and economically sustainable for everyone.

 

[Conza88]

Right. He's a strategic thinker.. at least* 2 years ahead, and usually 5-10 and longer. Also in terms of what is logical, and economically sustainable for everyone.

Anything less than the number of years you stipulated.... is not investment, but in fact speculation!

Schiff doesn't speculate