This is the last stand for the ‘Never Trump’ movement. Here’s what might happen.
CLEVELAND — This is the last stand for the "Never Trump" movement.
Just days before formally nominating Donald Trump as its presidential candidate, the Republican Party must first sort out exactly how that will happen and put down an insurrection among delegates still upset with what's poised to transpire.
The forum will be the rules committee of the Republican National Convention — a 112-member body composed of two representatives from 56 states and territories. The group includes two lawmakers, one Senate spouse, dozens of grass-roots activists and 42 members of the Republican National Committee — a separate body that acts as the party's board of directors but takes its cues from RNC Chairman Reince Priebus.
In most years, the committee's work is little-noticed, because the party's presidential nominee is a sure thing and any changes enacted by the panel usually don't apply until the next presidential election.
But this year, a coalition of anti-Trump groups, working under the umbrella name Free the Delegates, is planning to introduce a series of changes that could spark genuine drama on the floor of the convention next week. Or the group will be quickly exposed as an unorganized band severely outgunned by Trump supporters and the party's ruling intelligentsia.
By next week, Trump will be on the cusp of formally accepting the Republican nomination for president. He is poised to be formally nominated by the convention Monday and scheduled to accept the nod next Thursday night.
The political situation here in Cleveland is fluid and will be influenced by outside forces, including Trump's choice of a running mate. But here's a general sense of what to expect in the coming days:
SCENARIO 1: DONALD TRUMP EASILY SAILS TO THE NOMINATION
Likelihood: Better than most.
This happens if the “Never Trump” forces fail to secure the votes needed on the rules committee to change the rules — and fail to get even the 28 votes that are needed to introduce their proposal as a "minority report" to the full Republican National Convention. (More on that below.)
Under this scenario, just one potentially semi-related embarrassing scenario remains: Do delegates upset with Trump's nomination start leaving Cleveland before Thursday night?
With so many top Republicans already skipping the convention, there is some fear among top GOP leaders that rank-and-file delegates might also come up with excuses — the city's strict security procedures, a long-scheduled root canal — and flee as soon as they've completed their official duties. That would force the Trump campaign to scramble to fill empty seats in the arena. The likelihood of this won't be known until Tuesday or Wednesday.
[In GOP platform fight, Donald Trump is a distant presence]
SCENARIO 2: DELEGATES BECOME 'UNBOUND'
Likelihood: Depends on how things go in the committee meeting.
The future of the "Never Trump" movement now rests on this scenario.
Kendal Unruh, a rules committee member from Colorado, is attending her eighth GOP convention this year. A longtime supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), she's the face of Free the Delegates and the one leading the charge on the panel to change how the convention nominates Trump. She's joined in her campaign by Curly Haugland, a committee member from North Dakota.
The pair plan to introduce a proposal that would formally "unbind" delegates from the results of the contests held in the states and territories. Under this scenario, delegates would be allowed to "vote their conscience" — meaning that a delegate from a state that voted for Trump could opt to vote for Cruz, or another person.
Priebus and the RNC are opposed to such moves, saying that current party rules require delegates to be bound to the results of contests. But Haugland, whose involvement in GOP politics dates back decades, has been trying for years to reset the rules to a process used long before the party relied on caucuses and primaries to pick a candidate.
Keep an eye on two key swing votes: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), and his wife, Sharon Lee. They're representing Utah on the committee and haven't signaled how they would vote. Given Lee's loyal following in conservative and tea party circles, some other delegates may see his support for the proposal as political air cover.
If Unruh can win over the Lees, "It's easy street for us," she said.
She believes that her proposal has the support of at least 30 committee members. If Lee comes aboard, the number could climb higher than 30, she said. That's still far short of the 56 needed for a rules change to pass, but it's more than the 28 needed to file a "minority report."
Under convention rules, minority reports issued by a committee can be introduced to the full convention after it formally convenes Monday. Once the formalities are dispensed with, the convention chairman will instruct the convention committees on credentials, platform and rules to quickly meet again off the floor to wrap up unfinished business.
That's when Unruh, Haugland and their like-minded colleagues will signal whether they still have the votes needed to file a minority report. If they succeed, the proposal will be presented to the full convention for a vote.
If it's rejected, it's game over. If it's approved, tune in for the first convention-floor fight of the 21st century.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ive-guide-to-the-rnc-rules-committee-meeting/
