Michigan 2016 GOP Senate Primary Poll

[liberty2012]

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[tsai3904]

It was posted here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...an-Republican-Senate-Primary-Poll-Amash-at-18

Romney has already declined so it would be interesting to see new poll numbers.

 

[Anti-Neocon]

Amash doesn't have a solid chance of winning the general. Running would be a disaster which is why nobody else is thinking of doing it.

 

[Brett85]

Amash doesn't have a solid chance of winning the general. Running would be a disaster which is why nobody else is thinking of doing it.

That isn't true. There was a poll that showed the head to head matchups in the general, and none of the Democratic candidates even got to 40% against the Republican candidates, including Amash.

 

[itshappening]

Justin should study the polls more carefully and figure out the likely Dem contenders before he makes his mind up.

He also needs to do his own polling and hold focus groups in Michigan from all parts of the state and along demographic breakdown lines with likely general election voters to explore their attitudes in order to discern if he really has a shot at this because he'll be giving up his House seat.

When he is armed with this data then he can make an informed decision. I'm not sure whether he should do it but ultimately whether he can win or not is going to be up to the voters so he has to find out whether he has a shot and whether they'd be open to him.

 

[itshappening]

That isn't true. There was a poll that showed the head to head matchups in the general, and none of the Democratic candidates even got to 40% against the Republican candidates, including Amash.

The problem with the heads 2 heads is that it will all change when they spend tens of millions promoting whoever the Dem candidate is and demagoging Justin day and night.

This is why they're essentially worthless; he may start out with some sort of chance but he's going to get beat up pretty hard and the Dem candidate's name recognition will improve dramatically by the time polling day rolls around.

Don't let them fool you. Focus groups within the State will tell him what chance he has.

My gut feeling is that it's not a good idea.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

I've been hearing around here that Dr. Rob Steele is thinking about running for the GOP US Senate nomination since Levin is retiring. He formerly ran against my current Rep Dingle back in 2010 and nearly knocked him off. Steele was able to get national money from being on Hannity among other shows and he's very well known throughout the entire MIGOP as he was recently one of our nominees for UM Board of Regents and received the super majority of the votes at our state convention back in August. He's a major anti-Obamacare advocate and helped Bentivolio get elected. Amash would lose some support to this guy since he's more well known in the party as a true conservative. One of the local conservative hosts here was originally supporting Amash but says if Steele runs he'll support him. I'd say Amash should stay home if this guy runs since I believe he'll smash Rogers who is the main competition and unite all conservatives and be able to mount a statewide campaign just as well as Amash would. I've talked with Dr. Steele numerous times and he's very nice and personable, he's also a top notch cardiologist.

 

[EBounding]

I've been hearing around here that Dr. Rob Steele is thinking about running for the GOP US Senate nomination since Levin is retiring. He formerly ran against my current Rep Dingle back in 2010 and nearly knocked him off. Steele was able to get national money from being on Hannity among other shows and he's very well known throughout the entire MIGOP as he was recently one of our nominees for UM Board of Regents and received the super majority of the votes at our state convention back in August. He's a major anti-Obamacare advocate and helped Bentivolio get elected. Amash would lose some support to this guy since he's more well known in the party as a true conservative. One of the local conservative hosts here was originally supporting Amash but says if Steele runs he'll support him. I'd say Amash should stay home if this guy runs since I believe he'll smash Rogers who is the main competition and unite all conservatives and be able to mount a statewide campaign just as well as Amash would. I've talked with Dr. Steele numerous times and he's very nice and personable, he's also a top notch cardiologist.

I agree.

If Steele won, he'd be one of Rand's strongest allies and Amash (most likely) would still have his House seat. Steele can also be the canary in the mine for future elections -- can strong conservatives win the votes of an entire state like Michigan?

 

[FSP-Rebel]

I agree.

If Steele won, he'd be one of Rand's strongest allies and Amash (most likely) would still have his House seat. Steele can also be the canary in the mine for future elections -- can strong conservatives win the votes of an entire state like Michigan?

itshappening will be along shortly to say that they can not. The chances sure are a lot better now that Levin is out & the dems are starting from scratch. Steele will attract big money and is way more solid than Rogers-the-neocon. If it's a GOP year like I think, then we'll be in good shape. JAmash should just chill and the MIGOP should put no one up in a primary and leave it to Steele.

 

[misean]

That isn't true. There was a poll that showed the head to head matchups in the general, and none of the Democratic candidates even got to 40% against the Republican candidates, including Amash.

If Amash ran, I think he would have less than a 15% chance of winning. He would be 50/50 at best to win the Republican primary and would be probably be 30% to win the general election.

It may be worth it for him to run, but I would prefer he establish himself in the house for another 10 years or so in House. He's extremely young to be considering a Senate bid. And if he loses his House seat, I think he would face a challenge to win it back against an incumbent. Only Ron Paul beats incumbents.

 

[Brett85]

If Amash ran, I think he would have less than a 15% chance of winning. He would be 50/50 at best to win the Republican primary and would be probably be 30% to win the general election.

It may be worth it for him to run, but I would prefer he establish himself in the house for another 10 years or so in House. He's extremely young to be considering a Senate bid. And if he loses his House seat, I think he would face a challenge to win it back against an incumbent. Only Ron Paul beats incumbents.

I think you're underestimating how much Obamacare is going to hurt the Democrats in 2014.