Media value of the Blimp

TL, great research. I plan on looking up all of the references. Thank you for posting them all.

Thanks, Cyclone. The Blimp team has started posting new additions on the blimp blog (I send them a zip file periodically to use or not use as they see fit), so there are some other ones there.

The specific values for things are admittedly pretty rough guesses, but hopefully reasonable ones. My logic went like this:

- For print media, we know a full-page newspaper ad in USA Today in the front-but-not-really-front section cost $85k, from that gentleman who bought one. That's a national publication with a very broad reach, so most ad space should cost less. Some papers are local or regional, some give you big articles with lots of photos and some give you just a sentence or two in a minor part or a writeup in their online version. It's a lot of moderate or low-value stuff with occasional very high-value pieces that skew the whole thing. The Blimp is photogenic so people tend to put pictures in articles, and those take up page space and are worth something too, so sometimes even a couple sentences comes with a good photo. So I figured if you averaged them all together that the average mainstream print media mention has to be worth at least $2500. It's hard to buy a newspaper ad of any sort that costs too much less than that, so that seemed like a pretty safe number (it could be really low, but it's one I figured was pretty defendable).

- For TV, there's the cost to make an ad and the cost to air it. When you hear big numbers like "$200,000 ad buy", a big chunk (arguably most) of the ad cost is making it. I just discounted that and looked at the actual air time. I found some references on that through google searching, here's one:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpa...ness/Small Business/Marketing and Advertising
They say:
Fox's 30-second commercial spots cost $3,000 to $4,000 during the day and up to $20,000 in prime time, and that CNN's cost $6,000 to $7,000 during the day and up to $30,000 in prime time.

Looking back at that, we may be way low on TV (we're using $2400/30secs for prime time and $600/30secs for non-prime time or local TV). I guess I thought we would get a lot more coverage on local TV or non-banner-channels. In reality almost all our coverage has been CNN, with some FOX and a little local [it's hard to find the local, unless someone TIVOs it and uploads it somewhere, there's a lot we probably miss there]. Note that you can buy spots as low as $30 or so, but those are on scrappy cable channels at weird hours.

- For internet media & blogs I just valued an article of any sort at $100. Again, that's probably low; sometimes it's just a sentence or two but we tend to get pretty decent actual articles in internet media and people do see it a lot. I figured, again, what does a blog ad cost? Very high profile internet media (AOL) I score as mainstream media (it's basically Time Warner now). Internet media owned by mainstream media (ex. Boston Globe blogs) gets folded in as mainstream media. So every time Wonkette writes a hit piece on us, we credit ourselves $100 'cause that's about all they're worth ;)

And obviously this is just the stuff we catch. Google is pretty good at print media and internet media but it doesn't get everything. TV and some other stuff I see posted here I add manually as I see it. I figure the real total value (not counting the ad impressions of people seeing the Blimp itself) is something between the total number posted here and twice that, since I aimed to hit a solid defendable floor number. But that part's getting into guesswork.
 
Thanks, Cyclone. The Blimp team has started posting new additions on the blimp blog (I send them a zip file periodically to use or not use as they see fit), so there are some other ones there.

The specific values for things are admittedly pretty rough guesses, but hopefully reasonable ones. My logic went like this:

- For print media, we know a full-page newspaper ad in USA Today in the front-but-not-really-front section cost $85k, from that gentleman who bought one. That's a national publication with a very broad reach, so most ad space should cost less. Some papers are local or regional, some give you big articles with lots of photos and some give you just a sentence or two in a minor part or a writeup in their online version. It's a lot of moderate or low-value stuff with occasional very high-value pieces that skew the whole thing. The Blimp is photogenic so people tend to put pictures in articles, and those take up page space and are worth something too, so sometimes even a couple sentences comes with a good photo. So I figured if you averaged them all together that the average mainstream print media mention has to be worth at least $2500. It's hard to buy a newspaper ad of any sort that costs too much less than that, so that seemed like a pretty safe number (it could be really low, but it's one I figured was pretty defendable).

- For TV, there's the cost to make an ad and the cost to air it. When you hear big numbers like "$200,000 ad buy", a big chunk (arguably most) of the ad cost is making it. I just discounted that and looked at the actual air time. I found some references on that through google searching, here's one:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpa...ness/Small Business/Marketing and Advertising
They say:


Looking back at that, we may be way low on TV (we're using $2400/30secs for prime time and $600/30secs for non-prime time or local TV). I guess I thought we would get a lot more coverage on local TV or non-banner-channels. In reality almost all our coverage has been CNN, with some FOX and a little local [it's hard to find the local, unless someone TIVOs it and uploads it somewhere, there's a lot we probably miss there]. Note that you can buy spots as low as $30 or so, but those are on scrappy cable channels at weird hours.

- For internet media & blogs I just valued an article of any sort at $100. Again, that's probably low; sometimes it's just a sentence or two but we tend to get pretty decent actual articles in internet media and people do see it a lot. I figured, again, what does a blog ad cost? Very high profile internet media (AOL) I score as mainstream media (it's basically Time Warner now). Internet media owned by mainstream media (ex. Boston Globe blogs) gets folded in as mainstream media. So every time Wonkette writes a hit piece on us, we credit ourselves $100 'cause that's about all they're worth ;)

And obviously this is just the stuff we catch. Google is pretty good at print media and internet media but it doesn't get everything. TV and some other stuff I see posted here I add manually as I see it. I figure the real total value (not counting the ad impressions of people seeing the Blimp itself) is something between the total number posted here and twice that, since I aimed to hit a solid defendable floor number. But that part's getting into guesswork.


Can you IMAGINE the publicity if a media outlet were to interview the candidate from the blimp while AIRBORNE? That could happen if Dr. Paul and the blimp can meet up in South Carolina after the NH primary...of course; the blimp needs to be flying at that point. $40,000 would make it so.
 
The specific values for things are admittedly pretty rough guesses, but hopefully reasonable ones. My logic went like this:

While the values you assign look reasonable, the final numbers for the total media value of the blimp are quite exaggerated. Reason being is that you are taking into account all tiny mentions of the blimp in articles and spots about Ron Paul that would have been published anyway. When coming up with total media value numbers marketing and PR firms take only into consideration those articles and TV spots which are a direct result of the PR/Marketing activity undertaken or where "significant" coverage is added to slated articles. A quick review of the MSM links that have been provided in this thread shows that only a small portion of the articles and spots qualify as direct-result coverage or significant.

To just cite one of the many examples, using your schematic this tiny (one word) mention in an International Herald Tribune article is worth $2,500: "He [Paul] said he encouraged supporters to dream up other creative ideas such as blimps and tea parties to get his message across." Because these minor, inconsequential mentions so far outway the significant, direct-coverage articles and spots, the averaging technique used to come up with your figures is invalid--this is why professional marketing firms never rely simply on using a Google search to come up with media value, as it looks to their clients like they are cooking the books. It would only take a few hours to survey those links to separate the wheat from the chaffe, and come up with a more accurate figure.
 
Nah, I don't think that washes for a number of reasons, all addressed before.

First, there's no such thing as "would have been published anyway". Ron Paul has to fight for every line of coverage and every mention in any sort of mainstream media. You could say the same thing about the money bomb - most articles mention just a few words about "raised a record 6 million dollars in a day". But there's no way that article would have gotten written at all without a reason to write about him, and that's what the money bomb provided. Having the money bomb and the Blimp together provided two reasons at once, and having two reasons at once overcame a lot of reluctance on the part of editors, and as a result you could clearly see a huge uptick in media mentions of Ron Paul. The point to this exercise is to get media for Ron Paul. If the blimp gets a reporter to write an article about Ron Paul's foreign policy and he spends 600 words on policy and 2 words on the blimp, that's fine. In fact, that's arguably better.

Second, we're doing massive averaging here between articles that are extensive discussions of the blimp and those that are brief mentions on it, which is why we only value a major newspaper mention as $2500 (which, if you look at real newspaper ad rates, is a joke). We could, for example, only count articles that discuss the blimp extensively, but then I'd want to count the full $85,000/page ad rate for a national article, divided by actual column space, for that. Since there's no good way to count printed column inches, that strategy is impractical, and for the reason above I don't really think it's valid anyway.

And third, the Blimp is photogenic and tends to end up as the newspaper photo they attach to the article. If we really wanted to count column inches, we'd need to count the photo space too, which there's no good way to get from internet newsfeeds, so it's not worth it.

As of today, the Blimp has been featured in 14 TV segments, most of which were national headline prime-time news (and with TV we actually count the number of seconds they talk about the Blimp) and cited in 186 mainstream media publications. That's a lot of media, and valuing at a half million dollars is arguably way too low. The TV ad rates, for example, turned out to be much higher when we got good numbers on them and we'll probably have to raise the estimation on that. Furthermore, it generated 139 internet media mentions, some of which are quick quotes, but most of which are full articles about the Blimp or topics spun off it (like several ongoing humor threads), that get valued a whopping $100 each. And those actually get seen by a lot of people. There's no way you could buy blog ads to get that same amount of internet media real estate for the sub-$14,000 we valued it as. Any way you look at it, the Blimp is a media home run, it's generating a ton of real media, and there is no way whatsoever that if you walked into a PR agency and said "I have $400,000 to spend" you'd end up with anything like that kind of coverage on an straight ad buy.
 
Media total for 12/30/07

---- Media Reports ----
339 total media reports
Of those,
14 were TV
186 were non-TV major media
139 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
166 total separate media sources
Of those,
6 were TV
112 were non-TV major media
48 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of $2400 for a 30 second prime-time ad
($600 for non-prime-time)
Estimated TV media value: $62340
Estimated non-TV major media value: $465000
Estimated blog media value: $13900
Estimated total media value: $541240
 
Media total for 1/1/07

This was one delayed because I changed the calculation to update the TV ad revenue numbers. According to a New York Times article I located, we were too low in our rates; since it gave the actual rates for CNN and FOX, which up until recently have been most of our coverage, we use those specific rates for those two; the rest all use the old rate. The new number jumps up a bit to $633086.

---- Media Reports ----
345 total media reports
Of those,
15 were TV
187 were non-TV major media
142 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
170 total separate media sources
Of those,
7 were TV
113 were non-TV major media
50 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $151386
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $15420)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 0 primetime, 771 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $467500
Estimated blog media value: $14200
Estimated total media value: $633086
 
Media total for 1/3/07

[Note that adding the $350k direct advertising value of the Blimp itself, the Blimp is now certain to pass more than $1M media value earned on $400k spent this month :)]
---- Media Reports ----
361 total media reports
Of those,
16 were TV
195 were non-TV major media
150 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
176 total separate media sources
Of those,
8 were TV
115 were non-TV major media
53 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $153266
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $17300)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 0 primetime, 865 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $487500
Estimated blog media value: $15000
Estimated total media value: $655766
 
Media total for 1/8/07

[doesn't include the Daily Buzz TV; I still need to know how long the segment was]

---- Media Reports ----
370 total media reports
Of those,
16 were TV
201 were non-TV major media
153 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
180 total separate media sources
Of those,
8 were TV
119 were non-TV major media
53 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $153266
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $17300)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 0 primetime, 865 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $502500
Estimated blog media value: $15300
Estimated total media value: $671066
 
Media total for 1/10/07

[Still does not include Daily Buzz numbers. We're getting a big bump in local media (print & TV) lately and flying over the debates is definitely gonna help! :) ]
---- Media Reports ----
386 total media reports
Of those,
18 were TV
209 were non-TV major media
159 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
187 total separate media sources
Of those,
10 were TV
123 were non-TV major media
54 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $158966
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $23000)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 0 primetime, 1150 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $522500
Estimated blog media value: $15900
Estimated total media value: $697366
 
Media total for 1/13/08

Wow, almost $700K and that doesn't include yesterday or today!

Make that $720k+ with more still rolling in because of the Blimp's South Carolina debate appearance. And that still doesn't include the Daily Buzz segment, which will add a bunch because it's across lots of markets; apparently no one YouTubed it so I had to contact them to hopefully order a copy. That makes at least 20 TV segments!
---- Media Reports ----
401 total media reports
Of those,
19 were TV
217 were non-TV major media
165 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
194 total separate media sources
Of those,
11 were TV
129 were non-TV major media
54 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $161266
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $25300)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 0 primetime, 1265 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $542500
Estimated blog media value: $16500
Estimated total media value: $720266
 
Media total for 1/15/08

Includes the Daily Buzz, finally! :)
---- Media Reports ----
404 total media reports
Of those,
20 were TV
218 were non-TV major media
166 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
195 total separate media sources
Of those,
12 were TV
129 were non-TV major media
54 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $190066
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $54100)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 360 primetime, 1265 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $545000
Estimated blog media value: $16600
Estimated total media value: $751666
 
Media total for 1/18/07

Tons of new media! Does not include most recent CNN clip yet.

---- Media Reports ----
428 total media reports
Of those,
22 were TV
232 were non-TV major media
174 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
200 total separate media sources
Of those,
13 were TV
133 were non-TV major media
54 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $216446
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $80480)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 656 primetime, 1400 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $580000
Estimated blog media value: $17400
Estimated total media value: $813846
 
Tons of new media! Does not include most recent CNN clip yet.

---- Media Reports ----
428 total media reports
Of those,
22 were TV
232 were non-TV major media
174 were blogs or internet mentions

---- Sources ----
200 total separate media sources
Of those,
13 were TV
133 were non-TV major media
54 were blogs or internet sources

---- Estimated Value ----
Using an estimated average major media value of $2500
and an estimated blog mention value of $100,
and an estimated cost of:
$20000 for a 30 second prime-time FOX TV ad ($3500 non-prime-time)
$30000 for a 30 second prime-time CNN TV ad ($6500 non-prime-time)
$2400 for a 30 second general prime-time TV ad ($600 non-prime-time)
(reference: NY Times, see http://tinyurl.com/2zb9lx)
Estimated TV media value: $216446
(CNN: $122633, Fox: $13333, other: $80480)
[CNN airtime secs: 0 primetime, 566 non-prime-time]
[FOX airtime secs: 20 primetime, 0 non-prime-time]
[Other airtime secs: 656 primetime, 1400 non-prime-time]
Estimated non-TV major media value: $580000
Estimated blog media value: $17400
Estimated total media value: $813846


I knew we were doing well with SC media but it ias fun to see it laid out this way!!
 
I am bumping this again for all the people who don't understand how much media the blimp gets.
 
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