Maybe this atrocity could win Ron the Florida voters:

[wgadget]

I'm guessing it's the big military that's we're losing to. And sorry, the loss should be even bigger with Obama cutting the military (and Ron agreeing with him).

Sad, but.

I guess the issue comes down to Social "Security" vs. military "security" vs. personal liberties. The election in a nutshell.

 

[JohnGalt23g]

pay special attention to the chart at the bottom. Notice all the WTA and Conditional WTA? In a two man race, Conditional WTA means basically winner take all.

Most of them are WTA/CD, which means by Congressional District. Which means that in a two man race, it does not automatically become winner take all.

Jesus Christ, I swear sometimes...

 

[newbitech]

What proof do I have? How about polling?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

Please find me a poll... any poll... that has RP polling above double digits in FLA, or even one that has him approaching his national average.

How about 2008 performance?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Republican_primary,_2008

A whole 3% of the vote. We damn near lost to Fred Thompson, who dropped out of the race prior to the vote.

3%, in case you missed it the first time.

Now, can you provide evidence... any evidence... that RP is competitive in FLA? Besides of course "I was talking to people the other day..." Because the polls disagree with you.

Please think about what the hell you are saying. Seriously.

 

[newbitech]

Most of them are WTA/CD, which means by Congressional District. Which means that in a two man race, it does not automatically become winner take all.

Jesus Christ, I swear sometimes...

you should probably pay closer attention to what you are reading and saying.

 

[JohnGalt23g]

Please think about what the hell you are saying. Seriously.

Apparently you missed it on the first go-round. So I'll say it again...

Now, can you provide evidence... any evidence... that RP is competitive in FLA? Besides of course "I was talking to people the other day..." Because the polls disagree with you.

 

[newbitech]

Apparently you missed it on the first go-round. So I'll say it again...

Now, can you provide evidence... any evidence... that RP is competitive in FLA? Besides of course "I was talking to people the other day..." Because the polls disagree with you.

I think you have lost track of what this discussion has been about. The polls don't disagree with me, since I am not the one making claims about what "Florida" likes or doesn't like.

You made the claim, I asked for proof. You give me a pre-christmas poll and the results from 2008, as if I was ignorant of such things. Thanks for the proof. Now based on the logic in your proof, is it safe for me to assume that you believe that there isn't a single state in this country that likes Ron Paul, and the country as a whole does not like him?

Is that what you believe?

 

[floridasun1983]

JohnGalt23g, without trying to sound inflammatory, I'm having trouble following your logic. You're suggesting that polls are the only source of truth? They have been wrong before, they have been rigged before, etc. Just for the sake of disclosure, I am a PoliSci graduate who has taken courses in statistics and polling, I know how it works, I have designed (and massaged) some of my own. They are a good indicator and tool, but they are by no means foolproof and the final word.

As best I can tell, by your logic, since Ron Paul isn't leading in the naitonal polls, he has no support and should fold up his tent? What is your strategy to win? I mean, if you make no investment, you'll get no return. Its not going to surprise anybody if he gets killed in a state he spent nothing on and no time in. That's common sense. I don't really understand what your strategy is. Its like sitting on top of a vast oil field, and not being willing to drill for it because you don't "see" it.

 

[Sublyminal]

Right. Show your papers to vote. & then maybe take an IQ test to get those papers. Throw in a psychiatric evaluation. Can't forget a drug test. What the hell, invite DHS to supervise the whole thing. You know, make sure it's "fair"? Lay off the old folks, they can teach you a thing or two.

They do teach us a thing or two, that thing being that 90% of them are fools, that believe everything the MSM tells them. Don't get me wrong, there are some old folks out there that actually do their research. But, then you have those that fall for the same BS every four years. It gets old. Really old. I have the utmost respect for my elders, I just believe that they shouldn't be allowed to vote after a certain age.

 

[newbitech]

JohnGalt23g, without trying to sound inflammatory, I'm having trouble following your logic. You're suggesting that polls are the only source of truth? They have been wrong before, they have been rigged before, etc. Just for the sake of disclosure, I am a PoliSci graduate who has taken courses in statistics and polling, I know how it works, I have designed (and massaged) some of my own. They are a good indicator and tool, but they are by no means foolproof and the final word.

As best I can tell, by your logic, since Ron Paul isn't leading in the naitonal polls, he has no support and should fold up his tent? What is your strategy to win? I mean, if you make no investment, you'll get no return. Its not going to surprise anybody if he gets killed in a state he spent nothing on and no time in. That's common sense. I don't really understand what your strategy is. Its like sitting on top of a vast oil field, and not being willing to drill for it because you don't "see" it.

I think that is the strategy to be honest. Of course all of us can swallow that, but then the campaign will have to be on the defensive. Florida Local Media is going to eviscerate the campaign on this topic. And there are two national debates leading up to the primary.

I am not even asking for a huge ad buy to be honest. How about some radio buys? How about a campaign office or 3? Just saying, letting the grassroots in Florida fend for themselves on trying to get support for an invisible candidate is a huge mistake. We already see how that misdirected enthusiam can cause problems. What is so wrong with making an all out effort to win Florida?

Assuming Ron Paul wins the rep nod with this strategy... Is he then going to ignore Florida in the general as well? I mean come on...

 

[JohnGalt23g]

JohnGalt23g, without trying to sound inflammatory, I'm having trouble following your logic. You're suggesting that polls are the only source of truth? They have been wrong before, they have been rigged before, etc. Just for the sake of disclosure, I am a PoliSci graduate who has taken courses in statistics and polling, I know how it works, I have designed (and massaged) some of my own. They are a good indicator and tool, but they are by no means foolproof and the final word.

As best I can tell, by your logic, since Ron Paul isn't leading in the naitonal polls, he has no support and should fold up his tent? What is your strategy to win? I mean, if you make no investment, you'll get no return. Its not going to surprise anybody if he gets killed in a state he spent nothing on and no time in. That's common sense. I don't really understand what your strategy is. Its like sitting on top of a vast oil field, and not being willing to drill for it because you don't "see" it.

The strategy to win is compete in races where you actually have a shot to do some damage, in contests where we can actually afford to run a campaign.

And there is no oil in FLA. Every poll shows us getting creamed there.

Every

Single

One.

We have a history of not just underperforming in FLA, but badly underperforming. Largely because the FLA GOP is populated largely with groups of people who hold views not just other than Ron Paul's, but antithetical to Ron Paul's. Ron stands for free trade with Cuba. Boom!! Every anti-Castro vote in FLA (And yeah, there are a lot of them in the FLA GOP) is lost to you. Because you could be Jesus Christ himself, but if you are willing to trade with Castro, then fuck you. Senior citizens. Evangelical Christians. Crop-subsidy farmers. The list goes on.

And once again, in a state so large and with so many major broadcast centers that, to run an effective ad campaign, would cost what it would take to fund ad campaigns in NV, ID, CO, MT and WA... places, by the way, where we actually stand a chance of doing some damage, of actually getting some delegates.

That's how you win... not some gung-ho, superiority-laden 50-state strategy, which is doomed to (expletive deleted) failure, especially in places like FLA.

 

[AlphaD]

Hi Everyone,

Looks like I picked a good time to stop in. I am a US citizen, currently serving our country (USNR), and live in Florida. Some of the aggression and tone here is probably not the best thing for our common cause, of which we all care about or we wouldn't be here in the first place.

Moving on, this seems to be the main Florida area right now. I'm looking for more info on the appeal against WTA. The primary has been moved up considerably, it shouldn't be WTA. Other than that, I am looking for info on how to get involved in the delegate process locally (REC?), any other forums on this board we might be rallying around, and anything else I can do to help out locally.

Personally, I agree RP is pretty hard up here, but his policies, if explained well to the often stubborn locals, should encourage them. I understand both points that RP can't sink a ton of money here, but also agree that complete abandoning of the state is not a good move. As others pointed out, not only do a lot of supporters come out of here, but so does a lot of support money.

Thank you all for your support of liberty. I'll likely attend the debate watching party in Delray Beach if anyone is local.

 

[JohnGalt23g]

I think that is the strategy to be honest. Of course all of us can swallow that, but then the campaign will have to be on the defensive. Florida Local Media is going to eviscerate the campaign on this topic. And there are two national debates leading up to the primary.

I am not even asking for a huge ad buy to be honest. How about some radio buys? How about a campaign office or 3? Just saying, letting the grassroots in Florida fend for themselves on trying to get support for an invisible candidate is a huge mistake. We already see how that misdirected enthusiam can cause problems. What is so wrong with making an all out effort to win Florida?

Assuming Ron Paul wins the rep nod with this strategy... Is he then going to ignore Florida in the general as well? I mean come on...

In the general, Indy's and Dems can vote for him. Not so in the primary.

 

[newbitech]

In the general, Indy's and Dems can vote for him. Not so in the primary.

Sorry, that is not an answer. We expected that cross-over appeal in Iowa, didn't happen. IF it did happen, then you would have to believe that just as many baseline republicans stayed home. That does not bode well for either the inevitability that seems to be Romney OR the idea that the 2012 general will feature a growing of the Republican base due to Ron Paul attracting cross over voters.

Besides, would also have us believe that the campaign allowed Florida's deadline for voter registration to sneak up on them? I don't think so. The campaign flat ignored it. So it's pretty obvious that either the campaign doesn't have a Florida general election strategy in place yet, OR that strategy to get there has nothing to do with cross over voters.

They are ignoring Florida for reasons I cannot fathom, and that you have offered no real insite on other than the obvious complaints of, Ron Paul's message isn't winning people over (narrow but deep support) and Ron Paul doesn't have the funding. We all knew this coming in, and it is no different in Florida than in any other state, or the nation as a whole.

To me, it is a calculated move, but a miscalculated move. It is a move that there is still time to reverse course on as well. And of course, as I speak, the mailman delivers a Romney flyer targetting early voters. I just signed up for early vote on Tuesday, and the Romney campaign wasted no time in identifying me and putting a very simple clean (anti Paul) message in my box. How much did that cost them?

 

[newbitech]

Hi Everyone,

Looks like I picked a good time to stop in. I am a US citizen, currently serving our country (USNR), and live in Florida. Some of the aggression and tone here is probably not the best thing for our common cause, of which we all care about or we wouldn't be here in the first place.

Moving on, this seems to be the main Florida area right now. I'm looking for more info on the appeal against WTA. The primary has been moved up considerably, it shouldn't be WTA. Other than that, I am looking for info on how to get involved in the delegate process locally (REC?), any other forums on this board we might be rallying around, and anything else I can do to help out locally.

Personally, I agree RP is pretty hard up here, but his policies, if explained well to the often stubborn locals, should encourage them. I understand both points that RP can't sink a ton of money here, but also agree that complete abandoning of the state is not a good move. As others pointed out, not only do a lot of supporters come out of here, but so does a lot of support money.

Thank you all for your support of liberty. I'll likely attend the debate watching party in Delray Beach if anyone is local.

Send me a PM.

 

[libertygrl]

Papers PLEASE !

Personally, I think we should capitalize on this recent news report in FL. There's got to be a way to reach seniors with this and show them
how Ron Paul has spoken out against this over the years. Why not a major ad in Senior news magazine? Or a video? You could start off with this classic scene and then show news reports of actual events that have occured:

 

[JohnGalt23g]

Sorry, that is not an answer. We expected that cross-over appeal in Iowa, didn't happen. IF it did happen, then you would have to believe that just as many baseline republicans stayed home. That does not bode well for either the inevitability that seems to be Romney OR the idea that the 2012 general will feature a growing of the Republican base due to Ron Paul attracting cross over voters.

Besides, would also have us believe that the campaign allowed Florida's deadline for voter registration to sneak up on them? I don't think so. The campaign flat ignored it. So it's pretty obvious that either the campaign doesn't have a Florida general election strategy in place yet, OR that strategy to get there has nothing to do with cross over voters.

They are ignoring Florida for reasons I cannot fathom, and that you have offered no real insite on other than the obvious complaints of, Ron Paul's message isn't winning people over (narrow but deep support) and Ron Paul doesn't have the funding. We all knew this coming in, and it is no different in Florida than in any other state, or the nation as a whole.

To me, it is a calculated move, but a miscalculated move. It is a move that there is still time to reverse course on as well. And of course, as I speak, the mailman delivers a Romney flyer targetting early voters. I just signed up for early vote on Tuesday, and the Romney campaign wasted no time in identifying me and putting a very simple clean (anti Paul) message in my box. How much did that cost them?

What world are you living on?

The only reason we were as close as we were was because of the Indy/Dem vote in the caucuses.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

We took 43% of the indy vote in IA, which constituted 23% of the overall vote. Without it, we are at 14%, in Gingrich/Perry territory.

Seriously. Try thinking the numbers and the political realities through.

 

[newbitech]

What world are you living on?

The only reason we were as close as we were was because of the Indy/Dem vote in the caucuses.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

We took 43% of the indy vote in IA, which constituted 23% of the overall vote. Without it, we are at 14%, in Gingrich/Perry territory.

Seriously. Try thinking the numbers and the political realities through.

whew man, you are really trying hard to convince me of something. Not sure what though.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#IAREP

Notice in 2008 that there were 10% less people identifying as independant right? So that number increased this time, but where did they come from?

Also notice, in the 2012 entrance poll, nearly 40% of the people said that they haven't participated in a caucus before. Where did those people come from?

See now, you are going to tell me that Ron Paul increased the base. To which I reply, "not unless the base shrunk almost equally from the other side".

You see friend, the 2012 turn out was only a few thousand votes more than the 2008 turnout. The base did not increase, it shifted. Or I could believe what you believe that Ron Paul actually did increase the base, but at the same time, something else decreased the base.

Like I asked, do you want me to believe that the Republican base sat this one out to the tune of 10-15%? Or do you want to realize that the base is shifting? Cause you can't have it both ways.

If the base is indeed shifting, as I have laid out, then relying on independants to win the General isn't going to be a good strategy, because? The old Republican base just flat won't turn out. As evidence by Iowa if that is the thinking.

You need to explain why the base didn't turn out in Iowa. My explanation is the air of inevitibility that is Romney. As you can see, that was officially challenged by Ron Paul. If the trend is allowed to continue unchallenged, and the sentiment that Romney is going to win is allowed to gain foothold without challenge, then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Of course, challenging that sentiment will be important and actually getting the base to expand will become a reality. Without expanding the base, Republicans cannot defeat Obama. Without turning out Indies AND Base Reps, even Ron Paul won't win.

You need to remember WHO sent Obama to the WH in 2008. It was the indies and the youth. The same people that Ron Paul is after. That is all fine and good, but not playing to the Base Reps has the effect of simply shifting the base, not expanding it.

Please, stop trying so hard to convince yourself and others, especially me, that ignoring Florida for any reason is a good idea. It is just not.