Massie talks probability of hard drive failure with IRS head

[CaseyJones]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/gop-rep-massie-burns-irs-head-with-mit-quip/

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie got into a bit of a back-and-forth with IRS Commissioner John Koskinen tonight during the hearing over Lois Lerner‘s hard drive crashing, and Massie had a snappy one-liner ready when Koskinen challenged him on a matter of probability.

Massie brought up the statistic that there’s a 3-5 percent chance that a hard drive would fail on a regular basis, but factoring in the 10 days it took between an inquiry for Lerner’s emails and for it to turn out that her hard drive crashed, Massie said that’s a probability of 1 in 1000.

Koskinen said, “That’s actually not how probability works.”

Massie shot back, “You don’t have to explain probability to me. I took the class at MIT.”

video at link

 

[Matt Collins]

lolz....

the bad thing is that this dude does have a physics degree from an Ivy League so he does have some credibility on the issue.... but most people wont know that, so at least Thomas got that one over on him

 

[tsai3904]

Here's the full exchange:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4501730/rep-massie

 

[devil21]

Massie was good. Of course he was at the end of the hearing.

 

[amy31416]

lolz....

the bad thing is that this dude does have a physics degree from an Ivy League so he does have some credibility on the issue.... but most people wont know that, so at least Thomas got that one over on him

Duke isn't an Ivy League school.

 

[Matt Collins]

Duke isn't an Ivy League school.

Good catch

 

[LibertyEagle]

Good catch

What's odd, is that you would be claiming that it was, as some kind of apparent attempt to lend credibility to the clear lies being told by the IRS.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

Duke isn't an Ivy League school.

Top notch medical school though.

 

[amy31416]

Top notch medical school though.

You won't get any argument from me on that.

 

[Matt Collins]

What's odd, is that you would be claiming that it was, as some kind of apparent attempt to lend credibility to the clear lies being told by the IRS.

Well I was going to discredit the guy by pointing out that he is just an attorney or bureaucrat or something... so I looked him up and he sure enough has a physics degree

 

[TonySutton]

lolz....

the bad thing is that this dude does have a physics degree from an Ivy League so he does have some credibility on the issue.... but most people wont know that, so at least Thomas got that one over on him

Per Wikipedia

Koskinen graduated Magna Cum Laude with a BA in physics from Duke University in 1961, where he was a Member of the Sigma Chi Fraternity and Phi Beta Kappa; graduated with an LLB, cum laude, (JD) from Yale University School of Law in 1964; and did post graduate work in Cambridge University, Cambridge, England from 1964 to 1965

 

[Natural Citizen]

Well I was going to discredit the guy by pointing out that he is just an attorney or bureaucrat or something... so I looked him up and he sure enough has a physics degree

Doesn't matter. Physicists are over rated in the credibility department anyhow. Everyone just assumes that they are qualified across the board because they are a physicist and it simply isn't the case. I don't personally put a whole lot of weight into a MIT degree either but that's another debate, I suppose.

 

[amy31416]

MIT's pretty freaking awesome for tech programs, I don't care what anyone says.

 

[specsaregood]

MIT's pretty freaking awesome for tech programs, I don't care what anyone says.

I once copulated with a woman with a writing degree from MIT and she was no dummy.

 

[thoughtomator]

I've studied a ton of physics and you really don't need to know much about probability to get a degree in the field. If his degree was in statistics or mathematics that would be another story, but a mere B.A. in Physics probably requires zero education in the mathematics of probability at all.

 

[Natural Citizen]

MIT's pretty freaking awesome for tech programs, I don't care what anyone says.

Yes but they generally run a flunkout program that is designed to accommodate foreign students who have actually benefitted from a well established education platform. Something that American students simply don't enjoy the luxury of having. And the politicians want to keep it that way with their little H1-B gag. I assume that this political phenomenon is derived from a misguided position that Americans should, in their mind, remain consumers of goods as opposed to producers of goods. It's another area of foreign policy that they get a free pass on because nobody questions them. When we hear the term foreign policy it's always in context with Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran and whatever circus is going on in Iraq. That's it...

 

[Brian4Liberty]

I've studied a ton of physics and you really don't need to know much about probability to get a degree in the field. If his degree was in statistics or mathematics that would be another story, but a mere B.A. in Physics probably requires zero education in the mathematics of probability at all.

Agree. A physics degree would not require taking an actual class in Probability. I do have a Minor in Mathematics, and Advanced Probability is no cakewalk. Massie was right from a probability calculation perspective, Koskinen was wrong.

Of course Calculus would not exist without Physics...

 

[specsaregood]

Agree. A physics degree would not require taking an actual class in Probability. I do have a Minor in Mathematics, and Advanced Probability is no cakewalk. Massie was right from a probability calculation perspective, Koskinen was wrong.

Thanks for the perspective, by comparison Koskinen sounded correct from an Intro to Statistics 101 perspective.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Thanks for the perspective, by comparison Koskinen sounded correct from an Intro to Statistics 101 perspective.

Yeah, Koskinen was misapplying one of the most basic rules. Koskinen cited the accurate premise that each flip of a coin has a 50/50 chance. But the statistics in question were over time-frames, such as multiple flips of the coin. Each flip has a 50/50 chance. The probability of coming up heads every day for a year is not 50/50. Then you have in the added complexity of multiple devices failing. Permutations and combinations. I don't even want to think about it...

 

[JasonC]

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electric...-applied-probability-fall-2010/lecture-notes/

MIT probability course lecture notes..