Jobless Claims Consensus was for 480K. ACTUAL 500K.
Yep, It sure is getting better. Not.
Unexpectedly, again, & again, & again...
CBO FORECAST UPDATE PROJECTION
FY2010 $1.34 Trillion
Deficit as of yesterday...
$1.46 Trillion
So I presume the US Treasury is looking for a major surplus over the next 41 days?
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp1144.htm
The
Federal Reserve might need to commence a program of moderate purchases of
U.S. Treasury bonds if inflation continues to fall...FED president.
Jim-May Geithner lying to Americans... Nooooooooooooooooo?
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2010/08/07/did-the-treasury-secretary-lie-to-us/
More Propaganda and Money Manipulations pushed down the road from the US Treasury
U.S. Treasury Lowers July-September Borrowing Need by 7% to $350 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ember-borrowing-need-by-7-to-350-billion.html
The outlook Treasury released today, combined with borrowing so far in the fiscal year that started Oct. 1, means net borrowing for this year will be $1.44 trillion, compared with a previous forecast of $1.46 trillion in May. That’s less than the record $1.79 trillion last year.
This GEM:
http://imarketnews.com/node/17477
This quarter the Treasury is offering $74 billion of securities to refund approximately $33 billion of privately-held securities that will mature on August 15, 2010. This will raise approximately $41 billion. The securities will be a 3-year note, in the amount of $34 billion, a 10-year note in the amount of $24 billion, and a 30-year bond in the amount of $16 billion.
The balance of Treasury financing requirements will be met through bill issuance and monthly 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes,
additional auctions will be held through the August 30-year TIPS reopening, the September 10-year TIPS reopening and the October 5-year TIPS reopening.
In recent months Treasury has reduced coupon offering sizes, particularly in the front to intermediate sectors of the yield curve. Based on current forecasts, Treasury expects to continue to decrease coupon auction sizes at a gradual pace.
As we have said the ultimate magnitude of offering size reductions will depend on the pace and the extent of recovery. Treasury will continue to monitor projected financing needs and will make appropriate adjustments as necessary.
Illustrating our commitment to the TIPS program Treasury has taken step to improve the liquidity for these securities over the past year.
This has included increasing overall TIPS issuance as well as replacing 20-year TIPS with 30-year TIPS. Based on investor feedback Treasury also believes increasing the frequency of TIP auctions will improve liquidity in the product.
Going forward
Treasury is considering additional reopenings of TIPS offerings, adding the second reopening to the 10-year TIPS at the May refunding was the first step in this process.
Additional information on the 2011 TIPS auction calendar will be provided at the November 2010 quarterly refunding, any decision will be made after extensive consultation with market participants.
As always please do not hesitate to provide comments or suggestion to the debt management email address, we welcome and value your feedback. I'm going to stop here now, and we would be happy to answer any questions that you may have.
QUESTION: Can you tell us a little bit now when you expect now to reach the debt ceiling?
MILLER: At this moment at time we expect that will probably occur sometime in the first to second quarter of 2011. I am going to ask Matt Rutherford if he has anything further to share on that.
RUTHERFORD: No, I think we are still quite a bit of a ways away from that, so the forecasts are obviously it's difficult to predict exactly when we will do so.
Q: In the first or second quarter next year? You will need to have the increase, that is your projection now?
MILLER: That is our current thinking, We don't have any precise projection on the date
Q: What you would do about the Supplementary Financing Program if the debt limit comes up again, will it be trumped back down to a place holder, is there plans to phase it out at some point?
MILLER: There isn't any specific plan today on the SFP, but it's clearly a tool that we could exercise if needed to in a debt ceiling process.
Q: Is there any talk of continuing to increase 4-week bill sizes, and perhaps phasing out stuff that is perhaps six months, a year, in order to accomodate the money market funds or is there any sort of effort to shift supply earlier because of the new rules there.
MILLER: Well, you are asking an excellent question, its something that we have been exploring in the debt management office to try and understand the markets needs for Treasury bills and in what tenor.
We have not made in any adjustment to size the auctions in light of the 2a-7 rules for money market funds but we are solicitating information from a wide variety of market participants to understand the needs for T-bills and it's beyond money market funds, there are lots of investors in T-bills
RUTHERFORD: I would add that it is true that there is a lot of demand in the front end of the curve from the money market reform process, but we should not lose sight that the longer end of the bills curve attracts investors from a different class and its very well supported, so we have no intention to making adjustments.
Q: You talk about risks to the recovery can you comment on how a further weakening in the recovery will change how you would respond?
MILLER: I think we have been clear since May that we need to be very flexible as we make adjustments in debt offerings obviously a year ago there was far less certainty about the path of the economy.
We have now had four quarters of positive growth, we have said repeatedly that we want to make sure that we are aligning our borrowing needs with our fiscal results and I think we have done that quite clearly and successfully.
If we took the amount of cuts we have made from the prior quarter to today and annualized that, we are borrowing about $230 billion less than we were at the run rate in April, so we made quite significant adjustments in the annual borrowing needs and I think what we have said repeatedly is we want to remain flexible, and thinking about how much we need to borrow and to make sure we are paying a lot of attention to the pace and extent of economic recovery and we that are right sizing are borrowing accordingly
Q: Fed minutes discussed the shift in Fed's holdings to shorter term maturities what will that mean for you and what kind coordination is possible and you are expecting?
RUTHERFORD: I think that you know that we read in the minutes just like you did what the Fed discussed and we don't have any real insight into what there thinking is. However, I would say that if they were to pursue a strategy of reinvesting in securities with maturities of three years and in, it would not impact our debt management strategy it would not change the amount or composition held publicly or the amount that the amount and composition that we offering in any given month.
We think about our rollover risk to the Fed differently than we do to the market place and as a result as long as the Fed is rolling over its securities we are indifferent
Nope, there's this little reserve funds that the US TREASURY / FEDERAL RESERVE uses to manipulate the debt ceiling:
