Stocks: Market Crash Looming

Yeah, I would say the bad blips of the last few months are not crashes like late 2008. And just look how quickly it recovers from these losses--it has already made up almost half of what it lost in the past two months.

A 2008 style crash will only happen again in the near future if the whole financial system starts seizing up. Realistically, the Dow could be back to 11,000 by July and slowly cruising back to pre-Meltdown territory by the end of the year.
 
No, it absolutely has not "crashed"...

As of this writing, the market is slightly higher than it was in oct 2009 (roughly the time the thread started).. and that's not even counting dividends...

Had a few corrections? sure, but that is exceedingly normal and NOT a 'crash'...

Factor in the vast increase in money supply and see where that leaves you.
 
Factor in the vast increase in money supply and see where that leaves you.

With the exact same statement I made previously, i.e that the notion that the market has "crashed" several times since the start of this thread (roughly oct 2009) is baloney...

Bringing out the money supply argument is an abject non sequitur.. If you want to "factor" that in (even though it makes no sense) then the gold price too has "crashed" given that its still within a breath of its Nov-09 high value, and it pays no dividend...

Could it crash in the future? Yep, sure, anything is possible, but the fact remains that if you are looking at a the life of this thread, the equity market has held up well as an asset class. We don't get to warp facts around our worldview....
 
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I won't argue that Dforkus has some valid points, but the bottom line is, regardless of the market valuation of stocks or anything else, I don't think anyone can deny that we are witnessing the unraveling of the very fabric of our economy.

I just ahd my second annual review with no raise, the year before that I got a whopping $500. This is not done because the company I work for is struggling (it isn;t at all) and it isn't because I am not a good employee (Last year my numbers were second on a team of 15 people, this fiscal year just completed they were about 5th). No it was done primarily for two reasons.

1. The company feels it can do whatever it wants to regarding its employees as in the current economy they have no viable options.

2. I think the corporate bigwigs know that the writing is on the wall and they are willing to suck the life blood out of the company to line their own pockets before the whole thing goes to hell.

I personally hope that when things do go to hell, that people not only hold the politicians responsible (as we are beginning to this election cycle it seems) but also the corporate bigwigs and the financial interests that have repeatedly shaken down the American people, shipped out jobs and our wealth overseas, and have done their best to enslave us.
 
With the exact same statement I made previously, i.e that the notion that the market has "crashed" several times since the start of this thread (roughly oct 2009) is baloney...

Bringing out the money supply argument is an abject non sequitur.. If you want to "factor" that in (even though it makes no sense) then the gold price too has "crashed" given that its still within a breath of its Nov-09 high value, and it pays no dividend...

Could it crash in the future? Yep, sure, anything is possible, but the fact remains that if you are looking at a the life of this thread, the equity market has held up well as an asset class. We don't get to warp facts around our worldview....

Right, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that printed money always finds its way into the stock market FIRST.

But fine, feel free to GTFO if you don't like it.
 
Chart of the Day:

Government Spending on DOD and Government Pension totals over the past 50 years:

GOV_Defense_and_Pensions.png

<delurk>
Reverse the colors, and you've got your two-party corporatist system right there... ;)
</delurk>
 
This thread reminds me of the old Lyndon Larouche joke...

That he predicted that the economy would collapse in '77, '78, '79', 80',81,'82,'83',84'85, '86, '87, '88, '89, '90, etc.

It's just right around the corner isn't it guys?

Whither or not the collapse is "just right around the corner" is difficult to determine. In order to know exactly when it will crash, one would have to be a major player in a central bank. In order to know that it is going to crash, all one has to understand is that the masters and overlords in charge of the financial markets are fallible people, not saints. The current fiat money system will collapse and something else will have to take its place.

You don't have any delusions that our markets are free markets, do you? If our markets were free, then I would be in agreement with you. But knowing that the major players in the markets today have a printing press, and we don't, should give everyone pause at what they are up to in the markets. Keeping an eye on this developing situation could actually save your life someday if you heed the warnings.
 
Man look at this dismal report on housing... talk about falling through the Government propped-Up floor...

Single family homes starts Down 17.2%
Privately owned housing starts Down 10%
Housing completions Down 15.4%

http://www.businessinsider.com/may-housing-starts-2010-6

http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN MAY 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential
construction statistics for May 2010:

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 5.9
percent (±2.2%) below the revised April rate of 610,000
, but is 4.4 percent (±2.6%) above the May 2009 estimate of 550,000.
Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 438,000; this is 9.9 percent (±2.1%) below the revised April figure of 486,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 117,000 in May.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000. This is 10.0 percent (±10.3%)* below the

U.S. Census Bureau News Joint Release
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20233
10.3%) revised April estimate of 659,000, but is 7.8 percent (±9.7%)* above the May 2009 rate of 550,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 468,000; this is 17.2 percent (±7.9%) below the revised April figure of 565,000.
The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 112,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 687,000. This is 7.4 percent (±9.7%)* below
the revised April estimate of 742,000 and is 15.4 percent (±13.2%) below the May 2009 rate of 812,000.
Single-family housing completions in May were at a rate of 507,000; this is 7.8 percent (±9.5%)* below the revised April rate of
550,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 175,000.
 
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I heard something about a housing shortage earlier - anyone know where that prediction is coming from?
 
I heard something about a housing shortage earlier - anyone know where that prediction is coming from?

No clue, go for a drive around orange county,CA and count the for sale signs on homes, now times that by 10 for commercial properties.
Im sure its like that all around the country, some areas worse than others.

Or how bout Detroit, where they cant even give the houses away. $5 for a 3 bedroom house ? NO DEAL!
 
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week after three straight declines, another sign that the pace of layoffs has not slowed.

Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 472,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the highest level in a month and overshadowed a report that consumer prices remain essentially flat.

First-time jobless claims have hovered near 450,000 since the beginning of the year after falling steadily in the second half of 2009. That has raised concerns that hiring is lackluster and could slow the recovery."

read the rest:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-c...0.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
 
This makes no sense to me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDfVms.k1aIM&pos=1



If may's index number was 21.4 , and if this chart is current for June http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=OUTFGAF:IND

Then this is fucking horrible news, am i right? -62.617% sound pretty fucking bad to me.





Edit***

I hate bloomberg!!

This was the original article ...




May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in May for a ninth straight month, another sign factories are leading the recovery.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 21.4 during the month from 20.2 in April. Readings above zero signal growth.

A surge in exports, increased business investment and inventory rebuilding are sources of strength for manufacturing. Deere & Co. is among producers reporting stronger sales as the global economy rebounds from the deepest recession since the end of World War II.

“Manufacturing is still growing at a fairly robust pace,” Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. While inventory replenishment helped lead the recovery, “now you’re also seeing improved demand from consumers and businesses,” Price said.

Economists forecast the index would rise to 21.3, according to the median of 57 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 15 to 25.

The figures follow a report from the Labor Department today that showed more Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Conference Board today said its index of leading economic indicators declined in April, a sign the expansion may slow in the second half. The 0.1 percent decrease in measure of the outlook for three to six months followed a 1.3 percent gain. It was the first drop in the index in a year.

Stocks Slump

Stocks fell and the dollar rose on concern Europe’s debt crisis is getting worse. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 3.3 percent to 1,078.7 at 10:27 a.m. in New York. The euro weakened to $1.2309 from $1.2415 late yesterday.

The Philadelphia Fed’s shipments gauge increased to 15.8 in May, the highest in three months, from 5.6. The new orders measure decreased to 6.1 from 13.9 in April.

The employment index fell to 3.2 from 7.3 in March. Factories nationally have added 101,000 workers to their payrolls this year, according to Labor Department data.

The Philadelphia Fed’s index of prices paid decreased to 35.5 from 42.7 in April. Prices received rose to 3.5 from 1.

The inventory index dropped to minus 7.9 from 2, signaling factories are reducing stockpiles.

Sentiment Gauge

The overall Philadelphia Fed index isn’t composed of the individual measures, so some economists consider it a gauge of sentiment among manufacturers.

The report runs counter to another regional factory survey released earlier this week. Figures from the New York Fed showed factories in that region expanded in May at a slower rate than the previous month. The so-called Empire State Index fell to 19.1 from 31.9. While measures of new orders and shipments decreased, the gauge of employment was the highest in six years.

Economists monitor the New York and Philadelphia Fed factory reports for clues about the Institute for Supply Management figures on U.S. manufacturing during the month. That report will be released June 1.

Manufacturing in April

The ISM’s manufacturing gauge rose to 60.4 in April, the highest in almost six years.

Economists this month boosted their projections for consumer spending and overall growth this year, according to median forecasts in a Bloomberg monthly survey. Fed officials raised their growth estimates for this year, according to minutes, released yesterday, of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 27-28.

The economy will grow in a range of 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent this year, the central bank said. In January, policy makers forecast 2010 growth of 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent.

Gross domestic product rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Consumer spending increased by the most in three years and business investment on new equipment advanced at a 13 percent pace.

Growing demand for machinery such as tractors and combines allowed Deere to raise earnings and sales forecasts yesterday for a second time this year. The world’s largest farm equipment maker said sales of its signature green-and-yellow equipment will jump 11 percent to 13 percent in fiscal 2010, up from a February forecast of 6 percent to 8 percent.

“We’re seeing a very sharp recovery in 2010,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said May 5 in an interview in Washington. “Exports by the end of the year will be close to record levels.”
 
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I heard something about a housing shortage earlier - anyone know where that prediction is coming from?

Yeah, there's a shortage... the Commercial Banks are sitting on foreclosure properties.

Additional note, the Corporate Welfare granted by their prostitutes in CONgress allows the banks to sit on these properties and ride it out as they write off losses against their gains. So losses incurred now, can be written off against gains as far back as 5 years ago. How would you like that tax privileged?

Baltic Dry Index Down

It's a majority FED/Central Bank economy now...
 
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Pennsylvania Governor Warns of Possible Layoffs
18. June 2010

Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania said Thursday that without $850 million in federal aid, he would have to lay off hundreds or thousands of state and local government employees. The only possible source of that funding, a massive $120 billion jobs bill, is currently mired in stalemate in the US Senate, where Democrats are [...]

Sacramento County to Lay Off up to 1,000

18. June 2010

The Sacramento County Board of Commissioners has voted to approve a new $1.94 billion budget that will see between five and eight percent of the county workforce laid off. Included in the layoffs are some 140 employees of the sheriff’s office. Sheriff John McGinness, however, said that he considered cutting jobs to be [...]

More Jobs, Money Cut From Missouri Budget

18. June 2010


The Kansas City Business Journal reported yesterday that an additional $301 million as well as more than 250 state jobs would be slashed from the Missouri state budget. The cuts were announced by governor Jay Nixon and are in addition to the $650 million and 1,000 jobs already trimmed from the 2011 budget. All cuts [...]

Lone Star State Adds Over 40,000 Jobs In May

18. June 2010


The Dallas Morning News: Texas’ jobs market star is on the rise. Showing the largest gain in more than 3 years, Texas employers posted big increases in the jobs sector last month, adding some 43,600 jobs. Although the overall unemployment rate stayed the same at 8.3 percent, employers in nine of the eleven employment categories [...]

Jobs Bill Defeated in Senate

17. June 2010


A $120 billion jobs bill could not muster the votes to avoid a filibuster in the US Senate late Thursday. The bill included an extension of unemployment benefits and a $24 billion state aid package that would have prevented up to 300,000 layoffs. Most of the jobs that would have been saved belong [...]

Massive Layoffs Likely in Newark

17. June 2010


In the face of a massive $180 million budget deficit for 2010, Newark Mayor Cory Booker has proposed equally massive municipal layoffs. Up to 2,000 city workers may be out of a job by September in what Booker called a “massive change in the way we do government.” “What we have to do right now,” [...]

Layoffs Back in Force in Detroit

17. June 2010


Two weeks after he rescinded about 700 temporary layoffs in what he described as a goodwill gesture towards AFSCME union members, Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano has reinstated the cuts. Ficano has been in negotiations with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees since the beginning of the year in an ongoing [...]

Hospital Jobs Cut in Massachusetts

17. June 2010


Holyoke, Massachusetts — Health care has been generally resistant to the current recession but the Sisters of Providence Health System announced 135 layoffs on Tuesday, citing financial trouble. The organization’s flagship hospital, Mercy Medical Center, is running a $14 million deficit for 2010. “There were people crying,” said Patient Care Tech Erica Noga. “They were [...]

Census Bureau Set to Begin Layoffs
17. June 2010


Over the past several months, the US Census Bureau has hired over half a million people for its decennial counting of the masses. The temporary jobs created have helped prop up a still-sluggish jobs market, but the Bureau will begin laying off temporary census employees at the end of June. The first round of census [...]

Will Chicago Teachers Accept Pay Freeze to Save Jobs?

16. June 2010


In a story that’s becoming all too familiar across the country, the Chicago School District is facing a $400 million budget deficit with no easy way out. Unless district teachers accept a pay freeze, and maybe even if they do, the district will forced to lay off hundreds or thousands of teachers. Such a move [...]

 
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FormFactor Lays Off 70

16. June 2010



Bay Area semiconductor testing-equipment maker FormFactor announced today that it will eliminate 70 jobs. The cuts amount to about 8 percent of its total workforce. The company expects to spend about $5 million to implement the layoffs. The layoffs mark a continuation of what has been a turbulent few months for FormFactor, which saw [...]


Wynn Cuts 261 Jobs, Restores Wages

16. June 2010

Steve Wynn is perhaps the biggest name in Las Vegas, but even this famous casino mogul is not immune to the recession. Wynn resorts announced on Tuesday that it was laying off 261 workers rather than further cut employee hours and wages. Both hours and wages were cut in 2009, a year which [...]


Oakland Laying Off 200 Police

16. June 2010

It’s official. After toying with the idea for several months, the Oakland City Council has decided to send layoff notices to 200 police officers. Oakland, facing a $42 million budget deficit for the coming year, seems to have few choices but the layoffs are expected to be widely unpopular in a city that [...]


Los Angeles Public Libraries to Cut 150 Jobs

16. June 2010

The most recent version of the Los Angeles budget, which was just approved by the city council, includes a 15% cut in the operating budget of the Los Angeles Public Library system. This equates to a 28% cut, about 150 people, in LAPL’s staff. Overall, some 328 full-time-equivalent positions will be eliminated: 100 through layoffs, [...]


L.A. Unified Avoids Most Layoffs

16. June 2010

Over 3,000 Los Angeles Unified School District teachers and employees received layoff notices on March 15th of this year. Only 682 of those are still slated to lose their jobs at the end of June. The biggest cost-cutting measure (totaling some $140 million) is an agreement by the teachers’ union to twelve unpaid [...]


Yonkers, NY Cutting Services Amid Layoffs

11. June 2010

The office of Yonkers Mayor Phil Amicone announced on Friday municipal service cuts including trash removal services, which would be cut to one day per week. The move is the latest in a long line of measures attempting to balance the city’s budget. The service cutbacks begin on June 28th and on July [...]


Select Medical to Lay Off 66 Workers

11. June 2010

A notice filed this week with the Missouri Department of Economic Development revealed Select Medical Corp. is closing a facility in Manchester, Mo. and laying off 66 workers. The closure will come Aug. 12, according to the filing. Based in Mechanicsburg, Pa., Select Medical provides long-term acute care along with inpatient and outpatient medical rehabilitation. Bloomberg [...]


International Paper Closing Arkansas Plant; 86 Jobs Lost

11. June 2010

International Paper Co. said it will be eliminating 86 jobs through the closure of its corrugate container plant in Jonesboro, Ark. The plant is slated to close permanently in the next several weeks and most of its business will be moved to the company’s plant in Olive Branch, Miss. About 20 jobs will be added to [...]


NASA Funding Shortfall Could Cost Jobs in Utah

11. June 2010

As many as 2,000 workers in Utah may soon be unemployed because of the pending shutdown of the NASA Constellation moon rocket program, the Salt Lake Tribune reports. NASA this week notified Congress that it will begin shutting down the Constellation program because of a $991 million funding shortfall for the program. The funding gap is [...]
 
ERCI Index approaching "guaranteed recession" levels

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ec...-just-43-away-guaranteed-double-dip-territory

The ECRI weekly leading index is continuing its accelerating dive, and is now well into negative territory, hitting -5.7 for the past week: a 2.2 decline from the prior week. Here is why, as David Rosenberg, this is a critical indicator, and why we may have just 4.3 more points to go before the critical -10 threshold: "It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." At this rate of decline -10 will be taken out in the first week of July.

And some more recent observations on ECRI from Rosie:

Suffice it to say, when the ECRI was drifting lower in 2007, it got to -3.5%, where are we are now, in November and unbeknownst to the consensus at the time that a recession was only one month away. Remember that the economics community did not call for recession until after Lehman collapsed — nine months after it started; and go back to 2001, and the consensus did not call for recession until after 9/11 and again the economy had been in recession for a good six months).

Updated ECRI:

ECRI%201%206.18.jpg
 
Nevada #1 in Nation for Unemployment! 14%

animated-number-1-award-for-blog.jpg


State overtakes Michigan after 100's of thousands of unemployed abandon Michigan, reducing the unemployed there.

Nevada Jobless Rate Leads Nation And Hits All Time State High In May

By Sean Whaley | 4:59 pm June 18th, 2010
CARSON CITY – Nevada’s nation-leading 14 percent May unemployment rate announced today shows job losses are beginning to affect local governments after months of avoiding layoffs during a more than two-year long economic slowdown.
Nevada local governments have shed 5,600 jobs as of May this year compared to May 2009, a 5.3 percent reduction that far exceeds the 2.8 percent loss for all employment sectors over the same period, the Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation (DETR) reported.
A total of 300 local government jobs were lost from April to May. State government employment remained unchanged from April, and was up 400 jobs over the year.
Federal government employment has expanded due to the hiring of census workers, but those jobs are only expected to last for a few months.
Bill Anderson, chief economist for DETR, said he expects to see the local government job losses continue. Once programs have been reduced and other cutbacks implemented, the last option for cost savings is personnel, he said.
Nevada’s 14 percent jobless rate was a new all-time high for the state and put it in first place nationally. The rate was a three-tenths of a percentage point increase over April’s number.
Nevada surpassed the former No. 1 state Michigan, which had been leading the nation in unemployment for 50 consecutive months.
“In just three years, Nevada’s economy has fallen from one of the strongest performing to possibly the weakest,” Anderson said.



Nearly One Million US Workers Cut Off Unemployment Benefits

http://www.themarketfinancial.com/nearly-one-million-us-workers-cut-off-unemployment-benefits/4205

I think that these three excerpts really say it all…

“In the two and a half weeks since June 1, when the last extension expired, some 903,000 workers have seen their benefits cut off. By June 26, that number will top 1.2 million. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that the number of new claims for unemployment compensation jumped to 472,000 last week, the highest figure in several months.
The result is that a Congress that rushed through a $700 billion bailout of Wall Street in October 2008 in a matter of days, and authorized a further financial windfall to the banks and speculators five months later, cannot bring itself to support even the most meager subsistence for the unemployed workers who are the victims, not the perpetrators, of the economic crisis.”
_____
“According to press reports, leading Senate Democrats are seeking to win votes from the bill’s opponents by eliminating a $25 a week increase in jobless benefits that was part of the 2009 stimulus package. In other words, either all 10 million jobless workers would see a $25 cut in benefits, from checks averaging $309 a week, or benefits for the 5.7 million long-term unemployed would be cut off completely. Either way, those deprived of work by the economic crisis of capitalism, the most vulnerable section of the working class, will be made to pay.”

http://www.nevadanewsbureau.com/201...s-nation-and-hits-all-time-state-high-in-may/


 
I hear that Carson City has a very high rate of illegal aliens.

I'm pretty sure our government has found ways to set them up with some sort of benefits.

It seems that since the money is borrowed from the Federal Reserve that we end up with a disproportionate of politicians the will back that sort of thing.

And even print up the instructions in foreign languages.

Supersingle640x537.jpg
 
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