Stocks: Market Crash Looming

Just informed: No merit increases for the second year in a row.

My takehome is lower today than it was 5 years ago due to health insurance premiums increasing. This is NOT adjusting for inflation, I am saying the number is smaller than it was 5 years ago.

At least I have a job, I suppose.
 
Hi Sarge - everything's good, I just decided to cut the posting after the guy that runs the board moved a post I made on a WSJ unemployment article to "hot topics" for no good reason (basically censorship). After that move the board seemed more like "The Politically Correct Rainbow Coalition Barry Soetoro Socialist Forum" than "Liberty Forest".

You and Hollywood are doing a great job. ;)

BTW you might find the wsj unemployment article I posted interesting:

------------------------------------------------------------------
One of every five men 25 to 54 isn't working

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703322204575226003417489846.html

..."Even more alarming, the jobs that many of these men, or those like them, once had in construction, factories and offices aren't coming back. "A good guess…is that when the economy recovers five years from now, one in six men who are 25 to 54 will not be working," Lawrence Summers, the president's economic adviser, said the other day. "...

Let's do some simple math -

US population = 300 MM
Workforce population = 150 MM
Male Workforce = 150 MM * .6 = 90 MM
One fifth male workforce = 18 MM

Approx. Illegal Mexicans in US = 20 MM

---------------------------------------------------------------

So you can see with some rough math that it's very un-PC to mention that illegals might have taken jobs from low skilled US citizens even if anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoe size should have a clue by now.

I may be checking in occasionally, but posting? Not so much.








CL,

I hope you are OK. No word for awhile.
 
Hi Sarge - everything's good, I just decided to cut the posting after the guy that runs the board moved a post I made on a WSJ unemployment article to "hot topics" for no good reason (basically censorship). After that move the board seemed more like "The Politically Correct Rainbow Coalition Barry Soetoro Socialist Forum" than "Liberty Forest".

You and Hollywood are doing a great job. ;)

BTW you might find the wsj unemployment article I posted interesting:

------------------------------------------------------------------
One of every five men 25 to 54 isn't working

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703322204575226003417489846.html

..."Even more alarming, the jobs that many of these men, or those like them, once had in construction, factories and offices aren't coming back. "A good guess…is that when the economy recovers five years from now, one in six men who are 25 to 54 will not be working," Lawrence Summers, the president's economic adviser, said the other day. "...

Let's do some simple math -

US population = 300 MM
Workforce population = 150 MM
Male Workforce = 150 MM * .6 = 90 MM
One fifth male workforce = 18 MM

Approx. Illegal Mexicans in US = 20 MM

---------------------------------------------------------------

So you can see with some rough math that it's very un-PC to mention that illegals might have taken jobs from low skilled US citizens even if anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoe size should have a clue by now.

I may be checking in occasionally, but posting? Not so much.

Perhaps to those with economic illiteracy. Sorry, but the 19th Century Laissez-Faire liberals busted this tired response. More reading Cobden, Bright, Bastiat, Molinari, Rau, Castillon, etc.

You want to know whos taking jobs away from Americans? The Government. Not illegals. Not anyone else. Their laws are the direct cause of all unemployment.

It's so nice and easy choosing a scapegoat to villify isn't it? It's much harder when you have to go against the guns, than be the spokesman for them, right? Buck up, and fight the good fight.
 
CL,

I read you.

Good luck. Our government, who saw fit to give money to the IMF to bail out Italy, gets this in the face.

"Italy’s interest payments on debt subject to great uncertainty – Bank of Italy"

Now BO is giving 400M to Palestine. They all better wake up fast, because the 50 who are paying taxes are getting pissed.

Unemployment is likely going to grow big time over the next three months. The States have no other choice with falling revenues.

Notice how the Fed never told us what the secret meeting was about last week?

CA warn site shows a bunch more job losses coming down the pike.
 
OK it feels like I am one of 50 lately. Wait at the rate it is going it might happen.

50 Percent that are paying taxes. Smile.
 
NY playing catch up.

"In the past four months, lenders have warned more than 57,000 New York homeowners that they’re getting close to foreclosure."

This means they are already past 90 days late. Going to get interesting there shortly.

And on another front "Italy’s interest payments on debt subject to great uncertainty – Bank of Italy." Now who would have thought that. Surely not our Government who gives our tax money to the IMF to loan money to Italy.
 
California State Controller Johnny Chaing Tells Unions to Lobby Washington DC for $$$

H,

Take a look at the May Treasury Tax Receipt report and tear it apart please. The actual tax receipts net were around 50,000M.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0510.pdf

I think they are in deep doo doo. June figures is likely their last gasp. If June quarterly tax receipts are down they are going to have a hard time covering it up any longer.

Here is May 2009 to compare it with.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0509.pdf


S,

Okay... I will... a little later... busy getting everyone's farms going.

LOOK... at what California COMPTROLLER JOHNNY CHIANG told the UNIONS to DO... LOBBY WASHINGTON DC for a BAILOUT!

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/06/10/2811946/controller-suggests-feds-help.html#mi_rss=State Politics

Controller suggests feds help fight off minimum wage for state workers

#scsharelink { background: url(http://media.sacbee.com/static/sacconnect/images/share-icon.png) no-repeat left center; padding-left: 20px; } Share

By Jon Ortiz
[email protected]
Published: Thursday, Jun. 10, 2010 - 12:00 am | Page 1A
Last Modified: Thursday, Jun. 10, 2010 - 9:56 am

Hoping to head off an order to drastically reduce state worker pay if budget talks stall, Controller John Chiang's office sent a message to employee unionsHilda Solis. this week suggesting they reach out to a friend – U.S. Labor Secretary

Although the three-page plain-paper memo acquired by The Bee is unsigned, the controller's office confirmed that Chiang Chief of Staff Collin Wong-Martinusen wrote the document circulated to labor leaders on Monday.

"Seek Solis' immediate intervention on an unprecedented pay practice that, if allowed to proceed in California could become the new norm for all state and municipal governments that have late budgets or face fiscal distress," Wong-Martinusen wrote.

Aaron McLear, spokesman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, blasted the idea.
"It's totally inappropriate for the controller to seek federal cover to get around implementing the law," McLear said Wednesday afternoon.
California's Supreme Court in 2003 said state worker pay may be temporarily withheld to the federal minimum – currently $7.25 per hour – when lawmakers fail to pass a budget that appropriates money for payroll. Once a budget is passed, the withheld pay is issued.

A minimum wage order would hit roughly 241,000 state workers and another 73,000 California State University employees, the controller estimates.
Schwarzenegger tried to invoke the 2003 decision two years ago when budget talks dragged past the June 30 fiscal year-end. The administration told Chiang to reduce paychecks to the then-federal minimum of $6.25 per hour until the Legislature and the governor agreed on a deal.

Chiang refused, citing concerns that complying would violate labor law. Restoring pay also would be an enormous challenge for the controller's Vietnam-era payroll system. Controller payroll specialists estimated it could take up to six months to issue all the back pay withheld once a budget is signed. That would expose the state to another round of labor lawsuits.
While Schwarzenegger says the wage reduction is a matter of law, not choice, union officials believe the minimum wage talk is designed to press his political opponents to make budget concessions. The governor has said he won't raise taxes to deal with the state's $19 billion budget gap.
"Maybe the governor thinks this will put pressure on the Legislature to give in to his proposals," said California School Employees Association lobbyist Dave Low, noting that withholding employee pay doesn't save the state money – and may put it in legal peril.
Schwarzenegger's Department of Personnel Administration last year sued to force Chiang to comply and won. Chiang appealed the decision, even though the budget crisis was over.

Oral arguments in the case are set for June 21 in Sacramento's 3rd District Court of Appeal, nine days before the end of the current fiscal year. After that, Schwarzenegger can opt to invoke the minimum wage law.
The timing of the court hearing suggests it could quickly decide the matter to have an impact on this year's budget cycle, Wong-Martinusen wrote.
"Given the 3rd DCA's right-leaning composition and its past history of adverse rulings relating to labor interests, we should prepare for a ruling which affirms the trial court's decision," the memo says. "If this occurs, the Controller may be ordered to pay minimum wage as early as the July payroll, which is scheduled to be paid on August 1st."

Chiang spokesman Jacob Roper said the controller still believes in the legal merit of the appeal and that the memo was simply acknowledging a worst-case scenario.
"This is about identifying risk," Roper said. "It's not that we're expecting an adverse court ruling."
With a threat of state worker minimum wage looming, Wong-Martinusen suggested reaching out to Solis, whose Labor Department enforces federal labor law.
"When she was still a member of Congress, Secretary Solis joined Controller Chiang in publicly opposing the Governor's minimum wage order," he wrote.
Labor Department spokesman Joseph De Wolk declined to comment on the legality of reducing state worker pay because the matter is in the courts.
The minimum-wage issue is on the agenda for today's meeting of the Labor Coalition, which includes legislative and political representatives from public employee unions.
Wong-Martinusen will join the group to lay out the issues, the controller's office said.
The meeting and the minimum wage memo aren't out of the ordinary, Roper said, noting that the controller's office recently met with administration officials and shared the same information.
"This shows that (Chiang) is working with stakeholders who would be affected by the governor's politically driven wage order," Roper said.
 
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Top of drudge now

NY may shut next week, chaos,anarchy

Article says they are totally at the breaking point and the whole state is about to shut down due to massive debt.
 
Retail sales in May plunge by largest amount in 8 months, raising worries about recovery
Ruh Roh!

Retail sales drop 1.2 percent in May
Retail sales in May plunge by largest amount in 8 months, raising worries about recovery
Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, On Friday June 11, 2010, 8:54 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retail sales plunged in May by the largest amount in eight months as consumers slashed spending on everything from cars to clothing. The big drop raises new worries about the durability of the economic recovery.

The Commerce Department says that spending fell 1.2 percent last month. Auto sales were down 1.7 percent but there was weakness in a number of areas. Excluding autos, sales fell 1.1 percent.

The big decline cast new doubts about the strength of the economic recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity. Economists are concerned that households will start trimming outlays as they continued to be battered by high unemployment and a swoon in stock prices.

Investors have sold off stocks for more than a month because of concerns that Europe's sovereign debt crisis will slow a worldwide economic rebound. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 7.9 percent last month, the worst May for the blue chip index since 1940.

The 1.2 percent decline in May sales was the largest decline since sales had fallen 2.2 percent in September. Analysts had been forecasting sales would be weak but remain in positive territory.

For May, the 1.7 percent drop in auto sales followed a 0.6 percent increase in April sales and was the poorest showing in this category since a 2.5 percent February decline.

Sales at hardware stores plunged 9.3 percent. That could reflect an impact from the end of the homebuyer tax credit, which had spurred home sales earlier in the spring.

Department store sales fell 1.8 percent while sales in the broader category of general merchandise stores, which includes big retailers such as Wal-Mart, fell 1.1 percent.

Gasoline stations sales were down 3.3 percent, a drop that reflected in part lower gasoline pump prices during the month.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that households' net worth rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, but since then stock prices have been tumbling. Economists say it may not be until 2012 or 2013 at best before Americans' wealth returns to its pre-recession levels.

Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported that its index for revenue at stores open at least a year posted a 2.6 percent rise in May compared to sales in May 2009. That followed a 0.8 percent April increase and a 9 percent surge in March.

Target Corp. posted a small gain in May that was below internal forecasts while department store chain J.C. Penney Co. and many teen merchants including Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. reported declines in revenue at stores open at least a year.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 3 percent in the first three months of this year with much of that growth reflecting a 3.5 percent expansion in consumer spending, the best showing for this category in three years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-sales-drop-12-percent-apf-2718221856.html/print?x=0
 
Moody's downgrades Greece bonds to junk status.

Spain and England next?

Friends tried to get some bids on tile work.

With the tough economy, they could not believe how outrageous the bids were. They went to Home Depot bought a saw and are going to try and do the time job themselves. Some without jobs, who know how to lay tile, might survive right now by giving a fair shake tile work offer.

It is not that they can not afford it, they just don't like getting ripped off. They own a big cabin and a major size house and are not cheap people. They would both rather not have to do the work but, decided to try doing it due to the very high bids.

They likely saw their place, and thought they would just try and rip them off, so now, they get no job.

Moral to the story is, even people that are well off are watching pennies.
 
Anybody watch the NASCAR races this weekend?

@ least 25% empty seats... knucklehead Keynesian Kooks don't get that BAILING OUT Government and the Banks, plus letting corporations to write off losses against previous gains, is not an economic recovery.

well over 50% of the economy is government intravention and the Debt/Deficit keep climbing.

Looking at FY2010 May's US TREASURY's report... there's a 6.1% drop in Personal Income Taxes collected ($46.2 Billion Less). Remember now, last year (May 2009) was a disaster. Still dropping while debt climbs.

Hey we're still paying the $3.344 Billion a year for the Savings & Loan Scandal from 20 years ago! FSLIC RESOLUTION FUND 3,344

next US Treasury assuming more Student Loans, up to: $173.45 BILLION

Temporary Student Loan Purchase authority rises from $56.8 Billion to $95.6 Billion.

DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY: INTEREST ON TREASURY DEBT SECURITIES - INCREASES 13.8%

May 2010: $23,787 Billion
2010 FYTD: $248,201 Billion
2009 FYTD: $214,039 Billion

FY2010 Projected Interest on Debt total: $425.13 Billion


The Conspirators and Counterfeiters = G20 Klan

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This thread reminds me of the old Lyndon Larouche joke...

That he predicted that the economy would collapse in '77, '78, '79', 80',81,'82,'83',84'85, '86, '87, '88, '89, '90, etc.

It's just right around the corner isn't it guys?
 
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Chart of the Day:

Government Spending on DOD and Government Pension totals over the past 50 years:

GOV_Defense_and_Pensions.png
 
H,

Right you are. Zero Hedge has a blurb today that the Treasury is down to 4B cash.

I was checking their daily tax receipts through June 11th 60,000M net. If by the 15th it has not picked up a bunch they are in deep trouble over last year June. Quarterly payments are made by June 15th and it is not looking good right now.
 
This thread reminds me of the old Lyndon Larouche joke...

That he predicted that the economy would collapse in '77, '78, '79', 80',81,'82,'83',84'85, '86, '87, '88, '89, '90, etc.

It's just right around the corner isn't it guys?

The market has crashed several times since this thread started. It is now an ongoing thread keeping track of the continuously deteriorating economy.

If you think the economy is fine and dandy, I would suggest you go all in on SPX. Of course, you will have all of your purchasing power robbed from you by the HFT algos and/or the continuous currency debasement which is now far outpacing the rise of the stock market.

Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?
 
The market has crashed several times since this thread started.
No, it absolutely has not "crashed"...

As of this writing, the market is slightly higher than it was in oct 2009 (roughly the time the thread started).. and that's not even counting dividends...

Had a few corrections? sure, but that is exceedingly normal and NOT a 'crash'...
 
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