Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[MsDoodahs]

So....

Where's Sarge?

 

[Lafayette]

So....

Where's Sarge?

Yeah i hope he is ok, hasn't posted in a while.

 

[Cowlesy]

So....

Where's Sarge?

No idea -- he seems like a big vacationer worldwide, so hopefully he's enjoying some vacay somewhere.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Getting his last "Dibs" on Kolokithia Greece/Crete before the collapse.

 

[Mini-Me]

A "pull" by Obama and associates? I'm not sure how one can immediately draw such a conclusion, other than the "well, I wouldn't be surprised if its true" type of pseudologic...

"What does it all mean"- heck if I know, but I do know better than to try assess reality, in the absence or any real data, from a bunch of real, implied and/or imagined motivations of folks in circles of power far removed from my daily orbit...

Here's the problem: By the time empirical evidence mounts up and makes it obvious to everyone on Earth what is going on, there may not be any time left to do much about it. You're right that all the unknown variables involved preclude certainty; they don't preclude making very good guesses though.

(I should mention that I'm not a 100% metal bug or anything; I think going "all in" on any one asset class is foolish, and you need to diversify, especially during chaotic times like this.)

Not a psychiatrist, but delusions of grandeur, is a defined psychiatric symptom.
The undercurrent of
When I'm right - " How could those fools have missed this!"
When I'm wrong - "Wharrbl!!! manIPuLATIon!!!!!!" is a form of delusion of grandeur, with a dash of outright parnoia...

When you have people doing this, assessing secret motivations of people they've never met, inventing an endless stream of conspiracies in lieu of EVER modifying their world-view to reflect reality, to reflect that they too are human beings that can be incredibly wrong about things, it's hard NOT to think some folks are a little funny in the head..

I think you're being too hasty to judge, but I'll refrain from speculatively psychoanalyzing your mindset. (Not a psychologist here anyway.)

Certainty that you're correct about every day in the market and every movement should probably be called delusions of grandeur, unless you're Goldman Sachs (Rimshot! ). However, making a [strong] educated guess that price manipulation is regularly throwing your initial assessments off is not the same...because if price manipulation is actually the case, it would be a valid reason not once, not twice, but many times. Granted, repeatedly making predictions that continually underestimate the power of large manipulators to upset them - while retroactively pointing at that manipulation when the predictions do fail - is a bit silly. However, "delusional" people have been saying for years that large banks connected to central banks have been suppressing the price of PM's, and now Andrew Maguire is finally emerging as a whistleblower to make specific civil and criminal cases against JP Morgan. Were people "delusional" for shouting about what was going on before Maguire spoke up? Is their vindication blind chance, or were they just better at reading the signs than you? (BTW, I'll say right now that I'm making no predictions about the actual trials; there are so many political interests involved that it really could be sheer dumb luck if the final verdicts - probably years out - match reality.)

You mentioned a lack of "real data" earlier, but it applies to your own comments as well: Simply put, you don't have the necessary real data to determine that all the people you're calling delusional, are in fact delusional.

In any case, I believe you're using the term "paranoia" incorrectly in the context of mental illnesses; psychologically, paranoia has to do with an unfounded feeling that something is out to get the paranoid person specifically. Belief in overarching conspiracies targeted at a broad range of people cannot really apply as such, as far as I know. For instance, someone saying, "Politicians are reptiles from outer space, and they're plotting an awful future for humanity!" is not strictly "paranoid" in the psychological sense, but firmly believing in it would still be delusional (unless the believer knows something I don't ). A person saying, "The NSA is illegally spying on pretty much everyone!" a few years ago was not paranoid either...and in fact, they were correct. Someone saying, "The government is spying on my wife and me! They have wiretaps on our phones and implants in our heads reading our thoughts, and they're going to kill me any day now!" would fall under the paranoid category (unless the person has legitimate reason to believe it's true), because it's a belief in a conspiracy targeted specifically at the believer.

 

[bobbyw24]

Dow to Tumble Near 4200-5000 by Mid-2011: Strategist

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate


Following Monday's market rally, stocks opened lower Tuesday as gold soared. Which way are stocks headed? John O’Donoghue, head of equities at Cowen; Kevin Cook, market analyst at Peak6 Investments; and John Lekas, chief executive and portfolio manager at Leader Capital, shared their outlooks.

“The sovereign debt crisis is not over—it’s going to continue for many years—but I don’t think it will derail the global recovery,” Cook told CNBC.

He sees the S&P trade in a range of 1,140 and 1,240 this summer, but expects the index near 1,300 by year-end.

“I’m definitely a buyer of the broad market and quality stocks on the pullbacks,” Cook advised. “We’re still in the early innings of a cyclical recovery.”


http://www.cnbc.com/id/37065807

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

1,000's more laid off this week

[URL="http://www.wpix.com/news/local/wpix-mta-more-layoffs,0,7467817.story"][URL="http://www.wpix.com/news/local/wpix-mta-more-layoffs,0,7467817.story"][url]http://www.wpix.com/news/local/wpix-mta-more-layoffs,0,7467817.story[/URL][/URL][/URL]
Government Public Employees sue NYC on 1,000 annouced in cuts

NEW YORK, NY (WPIX) - The MTA announced Thursday that it will lay off 1,000 employees one day after a judge halted the agency's original plan to let go of 475 station clerks.

The cash strapped agency is expecting to issue pink slips to New York City transit 750 employees, including cleaning crew.

Subway cars will now only be cleaned at one end of the route instead of both ends as it once was done since the late 1980s, according Transit President Thomas Prendergast.

On Thursday, station clerks were expected to hold a rally in Brooklyn after turning in their passes. But the early morning filing of an injunction to halt the layoffs was able to save their jobs. The MTA immediately countered with a release of a statement claiming their lawyers would "be in court this morning seeking to have the temporary restraining order lifted."

The agency is attempting to close $378 billion budget gap but so far was able to cut approximately $200 million. The new round of layoffs is expected to save the MTA another $150.


[URL="http://www.ktvu.com/news/23166811/detail.html"][URL="http://www.ktvu.com/news/23166811/detail.html"][url]http://www.ktvu.com/news/23166811/detail.html[/URL][/URL][/URL]
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- News thatSan Jose State University would lay off 76 employees came as no surprise to many of the staff and faculty on campus Thursday, but that did nothing to blunt the emotional impact of the announcement.

In addition to the layoffs, 56 vacant positions were eliminated in a cost-cutting move the university calls unprecedented.

[URL="http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=12448046"][URL="http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=12448046"][url]http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=12448046[/URL][/URL][/URL]
[h3]Lilly announces 200 layoffs[/h3]
Updated: May 07, 2010 2:37 PM PDT

Kevin Rader/Eyewitness News
Indianapolis - Eli Lilly carried out another round of layoffs Friday, dropping another 200 people from the payroll. About half of those laid off worked for the company in Indianapolis.

[URL="http://www.kcci.com/news/23490145/detail.html"][URL="http://www.kcci.com/news/23490145/detail.html"][url]http://www.kcci.com/news/23490145/detail.html[/URL][/URL][/URL]
IOWA Health and Human Services cuts 88 last Friday


[URL="http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/highereducation/entries/2010/05/10/ut_to_cut_more_jobs_to_trim_sp.html"][URL="http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/highereducation/entries/2010/05/10/ut_to_cut_more_jobs_to_trim_sp.html"][url]http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/highereducation/entries/2010/05/10/ut_to_cut_more_jobs_to_trim_sp.html[/URL][/URL][/URL]
Unniversity of Texas laysoff 122

UT announces plan to trim jobs, spending
By Ralph K.M. Haurwitz | Monday, May 10, 2010, 12:19 PM
The University of Texas has laid off 122 employees in the current fiscal year and will make more cuts next year as part of a plan to trim $14.6 million from annual spending, officials announced today.
“Because little or no budget growth is seen in our long-term forecast, we must reduce our expenditures and strategically reallocate our resources,” said UT President William Powers Jr.

[URL="http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x1381036858/Ameren-announces-more-cuts-in-rate-dispute"][URL="http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x1381036858/Ameren-announces-more-cuts-in-rate-dispute"][url]http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x1381036858/Ameren-announces-more-cuts-in-rate-dispute[/URL][/URL][/URL]
The State Journal-Register - Tim Landis
AMEREN announced last week it was laying off 75 workers at power plants and other facilities in Illinois and Missouri, but officials said then those layoffs

[URL="http://www.centraljersey.com/articles/2010/05/06/topstory/doc4be317693d9db385113536.txt"][URL="http://www.centraljersey.com/articles/2010/05/06/topstory/doc4be317693d9db385113536.txt"][url]http://www.centraljersey.com/articles/2010/05/06/topstory/doc4be317693d9db385113536.txt[/URL][/URL][/URL]
PRINCETON: Hospital announces layoffs and job cuts
Packet Online - John Saccenti - ‎May 6, 2010‎
PRINCETON — The University Medical Center at Princeton confirmed Thursday that is eliminating approximately 80 positions this ...

[URL="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011786296_apusoklahomanlayoffs.html?syndication=rss"][URL="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011786296_apusoklahomanlayoffs.html?syndication=rss"][url]http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011786296_apusoklahomanlayoffs.html?syndication=rss[/URL][/URL][/URL]
The Oklahoman says 7 percent of its employees will be laid off because of what it calls a struggling advertising environment.
Oklahoma's largest newspaper announced the layoffs Wednesday.
The cuts of 57 people are in all departments and include 19 in the newsroom. The staff reduction is about one-third the size of the last round of job cuts at The Oklahoman in October 2008

[URL="http://www.ainonline.com/ain-and-ainalerts/aviation-international-news/single-publication-story/browse/0/article/bell-announces-layoffs-15177/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Bstory_pointer%5D=6&tx_ttnews%5Bmode%5D=1"][URL="http://www.ainonline.com/ain-and-ainalerts/aviation-international-news/single-publication-story/browse/0/article/bell-announces-layoffs-15177/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Bstory_pointer%5D=6&tx_ttnews%5Bmode%5D=1"][url]http://www.ainonline.com/ain-and-ainalerts/aviation-international-news/single-publication-story/browse/0/article/bell-announces-layoffs-15177/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Bstory_pointer%5D=6&tx_ttnews%5Bmode%5D=1[/URL][/URL][/URL]
Bell Helicopter Textron announced plans to lay off 270 workers at its Fort Worth-area plants. The job cuts will affect both union-represented hourly workers and salaried employees. A spokesman for the rotorcraft builder said further cutbacks were possible as the company reevaluated its position in the slumping world helicopter market

[URL="http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/159071/"][url]http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/159071/[/URL][/URL]
Sanford Manufacturing Plant Announces 300 Layoffs
SANFORD, NC — Eaton Corporation
informed 300 employees at its Sanford plant Wednesday that production at the facility would be phased out during the fourth quarter, and that they will be laid off.

[URL="http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/news/local/93078634.html"][url]http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/news/local/93078634.html[/URL][/URL]
FORT WAYNE, Ind. (Indiana's NewsCenter) – Aunt Millie’s representatives recently announced that they would be laying off 33 employees at their Fort Wayne bakery.
The primary reason for the layoff is said to be overcapacity at the bakery operation. The current economy has made bread sales become sluggish and as a result the decision was made for the layoff. This layoff represents 2 shifts for an indefinite period of time. The layoff will be based on seniority.
Their last day on the job will be May 14th.

German Economy worsening... Daimler announces 18K temporary layoffs
Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:08:20 GMT

German auto group Daimler has said it will lay off some 18,000 workers at several of its truck plants for at least three months.

Daimler said in a Wednesday statement that the layoffs would take effect by Easter (April 12) or May at the latest and run until the end of summer vacation in late August.

Daimler, the world's leading heavy truck maker, has seen a sharp fall in orders due to weak demand, the statement said.

The auto group's workforce in the heavy truck division is estimated at around 30,000. Daimler has already implemented partial layoffs of around 50,000 workers in German auto production that would last until June, said a spokeswoman for the company.

 

[tmosley]

First off, I liked ChooseLiberty's post, so I quoted it and made a post based on what was happening this morning. It's called Humor, tmosley.

Secondly, there are people who are saying the house is on fire all the time on the forum. There's nothing wrong with that, and in fact I am glad people aggregate the data, on the potential of market manipulation in the metals markets. However, since this place started in 2007, we see the same claims over and over again. Perhaps someday something will happen, but there are some investors who are willing to take some risk that in fact tomorrow will not be the last day to earn gains on equities/fixed incomes.

Third, this thread is valuable because it aggregates lots of great stories about the real economy. Sarge has done yeoman's work on it. No one is complaining about that, however it is important to look at firings AND hirings. It's important to look at how credit spreads have contracted since September 2008. It's important to listen to conference calls were businesses are feeling bullish and looking to expand.

No one is stopping you for preparing for the apocalypse, but I also get a few complaints that Economics & Sound Money is turning into a metal-bug forum. Cashing in 401(K)s at huge penalties to turn around and buy PMs at their highest nominal value to date scares a lot of people. Fact of the matter is, people should not be taking advice from strangers on the internet (me or you or anyone else).

Perhaps I'm just hypersensitive, as I try to convince people on hostile forums and in real life. Having been called a lunatic on multiple occasions by people who refuse to put 2 and 2 together, I get a lot more incensed when I come here and encounter the same thing.

All I know is that this ship is sinking, and a lot of people are going to be hurt or killed when it slips beneath the waves. Every single economic indicator is pointing towards disaster, it just hasn't happened yet. Those who remain in the system are like those who held Enron stock, only an order of magnitude more reliant on the share price. One day, they are going to find their stock is worth NOTHING, and there won't be a thing they can do about it.

 

[georgiaboy]

The agency is attempting to close $378 billion budget gap but so far was able to cut approximately $200 million. The new round of layoffs is expected to save the MTA another $150.

:O

 

[Cowlesy]

:O

It was a typo in the article.

 

[Mini-Me]

It was a typo in the article.

The worst thing is, even after fixing the typo, the amount is still three orders of magnitude lower than it needs to be. At this rate, they might as well be making yearly cuts on the order of nickels and dimes.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

The worst thing is, even after fixing the typo, the amount is still three orders of magnitude lower than it needs to be. At this rate, they might as well be making yearly cuts on the order of nickels and dimes.

The Socking part of it all in that deficit/debt of MTA... look at the earmarks from Chuckie Schumer, Carolyn Maloney, Clintons, etc...
http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/

Here's a Clip of stolen money... this is just one bill... Maloney, Rangel, Schumer, and the Clintons, have funneled Billions more previously. Talk about a Black Hole of Earmarks for New York City

Two House Democrats with a hunger for transit money — Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York and Ed Perlmutter of Colorado — helped secure the extra $3 billion, pushing total transit funding in the House bill to $12 billion. Nadler touted it as a boon for commuters that would help New York City’s financially strapped subway system jumpstart work on a huge backlog of projects.

 

[Cowlesy]

Two House Democrats with a hunger for transit money — Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York and Ed Perlmutter of Colorado — helped secure the extra $3 billion, pushing total transit funding in the House bill to $12 billion. Nadler touted it as a boon for commuters that would help New York City’s financially strapped subway system jumpstart work on a huge backlog of projects.

Jerrold Nadler's job really isn't to be a legislator adhering to the U.S. Constitution, but rather to bring as much bacon back to NYC, while sending D.C. as much socialism as humanly possible.

 

[acptulsa]

Jerrold Nadler's job really isn't to be a legislator adhering to the U.S. Constitution, but rather to bring as much bacon back to NYC, while sending D.C. as much socialism as humanly possible.

Not that this is in his job description, mind you. It's just that this is what has kept his bosses from firing him up to now.

The paradigm shift, however, is well underway. Thanks to us.

 

[MsDoodahs]

I miss Sarge.

 

[rancher89]

I miss Sarge.

It's only been five days.....

 

[Sarge]

Thank you for all the thoughts. I had to take time off from the board. I now have my blood pressure back under control with some additional medicine.

I promised I would comment on the Treasury Tax receipts when the month was posted. HORRIFIC!

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0410.pdf

Note the bold faced type on page one. They bumped receipts from May 1st into April to make the report sound better. If a business did that, guess what?

Note page 3. April this year, even with their accounting gimmick, 245,272M down from April last year at 266,206M. 21,000m down from last year. Wait though, go to page 6 for the real story.

Top of page 6 we see total tanking Treasury Tax Receipts at approximately 130,000M individual and corporate receipts net. Without the the gimmick of bumping May into April they would have been down approximately 106,000M from April last year. I won't call it accounting, I call it cheating. Accounting does not allow one to do that.

Next, take a look at the thread from Ticker Forum. They also get it.

They are playing games, the numbers are horrific and they would try and have you believe they are going to end the fiscal year near to what they made last year. Total hog wash.

When the bond market digests the information, and sees the game they are playing, it is going to get ugly in my humble opinion.

They are phony pumping the number with the May dollars. When the June report comes out for May, it is going to get interesting fast.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Damn Sarge... I was Waiting for the National Debt to BUST through $13 TRILLION to do a shocking look at FY2010 so far.

Turbo Tax Timmy and the $100's of Billions in "OTHER" catagories is pretty annoying and concealing. The continued obscuration won't work anymore since the FED & TREASURY are on everyone's radar screens. Same goes for Tammany Hall aka White House/Executive Branch

 

[Sarge]

H,

It is ready to blow up.

I was quite frankly in shock when I picked up on the dump from May into April. I had to read it three times saying this can't be right.

Take time to listen to the you tube that the Count posted on the guy from Germany.

They dumped so much from May into April, what do they do for May? This was the second major monthly gimmick game they have played that was obvious this fiscal period.

They can play games, but come the end of the fiscal year they have to set it straight or they leave themselves open to the platform with the dropping floor.

What we need is the bond market tearing their financial statements apart and calling out their cheating. If I were the bond guys, I would hike the interest rate for them. Just like they are calling the bluff in Europe that they are not going to cut spending.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Schwarzenegger Preps ‘Terrible Cuts’ to Close Deficit

H,

I was quite frankly in shock when I picked up on the dump from May into April. I had to read it three times saying this can't be right.

Take time to listen to the you tube that the Count posted on the guy from Germany.

They dumped so much from May into April, what do they do for May? This was the second major monthly gimmick game they have played that was obvious this fiscal period.

What we need is the bond market tearing their financial statements apart and calling out their cheating. If I were the bond guys, I would hike the interest rate for them. Just like they are calling the bluff in Europe that they are not going to cut spending.

It's all RIGGED...

California does the same as:

1.) Borrowing at 0% via the FEDERAL gov. FED BAILOUT LOANS @ midnight
2.) increased SalesTaxes 15%/User Fees 5-100% Double /DMV Fees/Taxes... up to a 100% increases... then flaunt propaganda that revenues are up 2%
3.) Forcing businesses to pay 20% of projected taxes of 1st half of FY2011 (starts July 2010) into FY2010 ends June 30th 2010 (Same as US Treasury circus stunts)


Ut Ohhhh... THE GOVERNATOR of Kalifornia is having a Big Press Release on Friday, 5/14:

[URL]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-11/schwarzenegger-preps-terrible-cuts-to-close-deficit-update1-.html[/URL]

[h1]Schwarzenegger Preps ‘Terrible Cuts’ to Close Deficit [/h1]
(Updates with tax collections in fourth paragraph.)
By Michael B. Marois and William Selway
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will seek “terrible cuts” to eliminate an $18.6 billion budget deficit facing the most-populous U.S. state through June 2011, his spokesman said.
Schwarzenegger, 62, who will introduce his revised budget plans on May 14, has said he won’t seek tax increases to bolster California’s finances. The Republican’s forecast for the budget gap may rise after revenue fell short of his targets last month.

“We can’t get through this deficit without very terrible cuts,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear told reporters in Sacramento. “We don’t believe that raising taxes right now is the right thing to do.”

More Bad News:

California’s revenue in April, when income-tax payments are due, trailed the governor’s estimates by $3.6 billion, or 26 percent. The gap wiped out gains from the previous four months, leaving collections $1.3 billion behind projections for the budget year that ends in June. <==== This is AFTER all the TAX/FEE increases California imposed

Schwarzenegger’s newest plan will revise the proposals introduced in January to account for the tax-collection shortages. In January, the governor said California may have to eliminate entire welfare programs, including the main one that provides cash and job assistance to families below the poverty line, without an influx of cash from the federal government.

Since then, the Democrat-controlled Legislature has made few strides toward closing the budget hole. Legislation adopted during the emergency session ordered by Schwarzenegger knocked about $1.4 billion from the deficit.

Tax Measures
Democrats this week introduced a package of bills that would raise as much as $2.9 billion annually by imposing a 10 percent severance tax on oil production in the state, repealing corporate-tax breaks approved last year to spur job growth and assessing commercial property taxes differently.
Schwarzenegger is girding for his final fight over California’s budget before leaving office in January. Over the last two years, he and lawmakers have had difficulty redrawing the budget fast enough to make up for revenue lost amid rising unemployment.

By the beginning of 2010, Schwarzenegger and the lawmakers had closed a $60 billion deficit partly by slashing spending on schools, temporarily raising taxes and borrowing from local governments.

The fiscal strains have left California with the lowest credit rating among U.S. states. A taxable California bond maturing in 2039 traded for a yield of 7.08 percent today, up from an average of 6.87 percent on May 6, according to Municipal Security Rulemaking Board data.



--Editors: Stacie Servetah, Mark Tannenbaum, Ted Bunker
To contact the reporter on this story: William Selway in San Francisco at [email protected]; Michael Marois in Sacramento at [email protected].
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at [email protected]