Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[Baptist]

Finally it looks like SHTF TEOTWAWKI might happen again. It sucks to see all the sheeple lose everything they own, but staying up all night around this time last year while I watched the collapse unfold before my eyes was pretty exciting. You have to admit it.

(P.S. I'm referring to those nights where we were all on these forums around 3-5 am watching the collapse happen before our very eyes, only to have the Fed intervene around 6 am to stop the collapse.)

 

[Sarge]

Consumer confidence tanks. Came in at 47.7 vs. expected of 54.0.

Kiss off the holiday shopping. Backs up what I was seeing at stores here.

 

[Sarge]

What a joke on how they try to spin this to getting better.

"10:04 AM October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: down 7 to 7, vs. consensus of 14. Central Atlantic manufacturing activity expanded for the sixth straight month, with broad indicators continuing to grow but well under September's pace. Backlogs fell further into negative ground. Business prospects for next six months were more positive. Prices expected to grow at quicker rates."

Falling off a cliff for six month is growing? Backlogs falling into negative ground. Prices expected to inflate. Yep, all is well.

The spin masters are not even funny anymore.

 

[LDA]

(P.S. I'm referring to those nights where we were all on these forums around 3-5 am watching the collapse happen before our very eyes, only to have the Fed intervene around 6 am to stop the collapse.)

So, this time, what can the Fed do? Interest rates are 0. They can't go any lower. What else can they do?

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Seems like "they" stopped a breakdown this morning in gold, euro, s&p.

Watching the euro.

tick tock.

 

[Sarge]

Are you in England?

I am looking for S&P 1049 next. Several mortgage companies were downgraded today. I wonder why? Could it just be more write downs. I am hearing 299 B still needs to be written down yet. Rockwell Collins cut close to 400 in CA today.

 

[Sarge]

Moving on up,

"The treasury just auctioned off 2-Year Notes at High Yield of 1.02%, Bid to Cover of 3.63."

44 B at higher rates. Hey Tim and Ben are you getting the hint of things to come?

 

[Sarge]

Ruh Roh!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.yQT13_FsAk

Then they get hit with bad earnings tonight. Oh wait, did the SEC investigation had anything to do with the bad results tonight?

Apollo Group Q4 net income 59c vs $1.43

Just saying.

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Looks like the Dow holding that big trendline so far - due to PPT? Smells like the fed. Other indices much weaker.

Gold holding so far, but Silver down, Euro dropping.

May gap down overnight. They like to sneak it like that.

Not in England Sarge.

 

[Sarge]

Things are really, really, really better.,

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Norfolk-Southern-3Q-earnings-apf-4189226404.html?x=0&.v=6

Can all say together off a cliff, on the count of three?

Bye, Bye Miss American Pie. All Chevy's will meet at the levies to die.

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Seeing that makes you think of all the huge crap the SEC should be investigating but ignores.

Ruh Roh!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.yQT13_FsAk

Then they get hit with bad earnings tonight. Oh wait, did the SEC investigation had anything to do with the bad results tonight?

Apollo Group Q4 net income 59c vs $1.43

Just saying.

 

[Sarge]

Right you are. Transports down today. New low? 3,704

They could not keep the Dow over 9.900 for the close. I had to double check that.

Watching for the GDP. The only problem is the fudge factor. Things are getting so smelly lately that if it is all due to the govt. as we all know, that might be the tipping factor. Ex govt. and this economy is the pits.

When Mac D said the consumers are not showing up, it is a red flag. See my post on rail shipping. What shipping?

 

[Sarge]

I can't even talk about the SEC not investigating the likes of GS et al. without loosing it.

People are starting to speak up about how corrupt some were during the AIG mess and all.

Turbo TT mentioned by name to the tune of 14B.

 

[Sarge]

Lest anyone wants to hide their head in the sand and think things are getting better.,

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/city-of-houston-is-bankrupt-so-are.html

Houston we have a problem. Wait, a few others on the list likewise.

Wait, did you see this,

"But even on the modified accrual basis of accounting (essentially cash basis) followed by the City and all other municipalities, the $236.8 million fund balance in the City’s general fund as of July 1, 2009 (the beginning of this current fiscal year) would not exist except for the City having deposited the proceeds of pension obligation bonds into the City’s general fund instead of depositing them in their legally required immediate destination, the pension plans’ bank accounts."

They didn't deposit them where legally required? BOOM!

 

[Sarge]

No matter how they try to spin it the SPX broke below the 200 day moving average today.

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/rounded-arc-a-bad-omen-for-sp-500/

 

[Sarge]

Before you say but that was yesterday. Tonight it closed at 1063. some.

Clearly a break down through the 200 day Moving Average. Lower than yesterday. Anyone seeing a trend here?

By the way that is some great thinking on doing that chart. My thoughts.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Nope... THIS IS LOOMING: Bank of Nevada just closed 3 branches in LAS VEGAS today - loses $24 Million in Q3/2009. Western Alliance Bancorporation is losing billions in the worst real estate sector in the country: Arizona, California, Nevada. Also Downtown vegas development loses mounting.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/oct/26/bank-nevada-owner-reports-loss-4-branches-close/

Parent company: Western Alliance bancorporation
http://www.westernalliancebancorp.com/2.cfm

Western Alliance Bancorporation is a bank holding company headquartered in Las Vegas and is the parent company of:

Bank of Nevada, First Independent Bank of Nevada, Alliance Bank of Arizona, Torrey Pines Bank, Alta Alliance Bank, Western Alliance Leasing, Premier Trust, Miller/Russell & Associates, Shine Investments, and PartnersFirst. The company provides a full range of banking and related services to locally owned businesses, professional firms, real estate developers and investors, local non-profit organizations, high net worth individuals and other consumers through its subsidiary banks and financial services companies located in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and California.

2700 West Sahara Ave.
Las Vegas, NV 89102
702.248.4200
www.bankofnevada.com

2701 E. Camelback Road
Suite 110
Phoenix, AZ 85016
602.952.5400
www.alliancebankofarizona.com

12220 El Camino Real
Suite 100
San Diego, CA 92130
www.torreypinesbank.com

1951 Webster Street
Oakland, CA 94612
510.899.7500
www.altaalliancebank.com

P.O. Box 11100
Reno, NV 89510
(775) 828-2000
www.firstindependentnv.com

2701 E. Camelback Road
Suite 120
Phoenix, AZ 85016
www.miller-russell.com

2700 West Sahara Ave.
Suite 300
Las Vegas, NV 89102
702.507.0750
www.premiertrust.com

4646 E Van Buren Street,
Suite 125
Phoenix, AZ 85008
602.797.3690
www.westernallianceef.com

12220 El Camino Real
San Diego, CA 92130
877.734.7781
www.partnersfirstcc.com
PartnersFirst Affinity Services, a Division of Torrey Pines Bank

 

[ChooseLiberty]

More bad investment decisions caused by the Fed/Greenspan manipulation.

Nope... THIS IS LOOMING: Bank of Nevada just closed 3 branches in LAS VEGAS. Western Alliance Bancorporation is losing billions in the worst real estate sector in the country: Arizona, California, Nevada. Also Downtown vegas development loses mounting.

 

[ChooseLiberty]

FWIW - There are two ways these economic busts have gone in the 70s and 30s.

In the 70s the market just oscillates up and down in a big range as the money supply is cranked up while the economy stagflates and assets inflate.

In the 30s the market crashes, retraces 50% (like now) and then plunges for years during deflation. The Japanese market also did something like this in the 90s as they tried to hold up the value of the yen (which they did).

Although we know the Fed caused this crap sandwich, with any luck we will get a 70s style crap sandwich and not a 30s style crap sandwich as Bernanke drops $ from helicopters ending with a big ramp in gold in a few years about the same time Ron Paul is reading the first audit of the Fed.

The first key to which crap sandwich we have is how the market acts on the next leg down, so we should know soon enough if that lower trendline breaks.

That is all.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

It's happening... here's another Alliance Bancorporation subsidary that annouces banking cuts today in Arizona:

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2009/10/19/daily64.html

Alliance Bank of Arizona lays off 18, closes branches


Phoenix Business Journal - by Chris Casacchia

• Community banks find little aid in accounting changes
• Alliance Bank marks $1B in assets
• Competitors line up to save failing banks
• Alliance Bank takes on SBA's Patriot Express program
• New banks jockeying for territory in East Bay

Eighteen employees at Alliance Bank of Arizona were laid off Thursday in a statewide cost-cutting move.
The affected employees were told to show up at a specific place and time, and when they arrived, they were told their positions had been eliminated.
After numerous calls and e-mails to various executives at the bank, Executive Vice President Ed Zito confirmed the layoffs from Dallas.


“It was statewide. It reflects the severe economic downturn that has affected the entire banking industry and the national and global economy,” Zito said. “It is an effort to become more efficient and be better prepared to move forward as the economy stabilizes.”
He said he does not expect more layoffs to follow.


A month ago, Alliance closed one of its three branches in Tucson because the location was not conducive to walk-in clients or street exposure. The bank continues to look for space near downtown Tucson, Zito said.