Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[oyarde]

Dow - 517 , gold 1320 , copper 3.08 , oil down 2 percent .

 

[oyarde]

With wholesale gasoline at 1.77 you would think I could get some gas under 2.60

 

[devil21]

Dow - 517 , gold 1320 , copper 3.08 , oil down 2 percent .

Some wise people have said that when commodities start dropping during equity and bond market instability, when they should be rising as a safe haven, that SHTF is very soon. As unstable as equities and rising bond rates are, metals should be spiking but they're not. Oil falling also.

 

[oyarde]

Some wise people have said that when commodities start dropping during equity and bond market instability, when they should be rising as a safe haven, that SHTF is very soon. As unstable as equities and rising bond rates are, metals should be spiking but they're not. Oil falling also.

Ya , when the Dow drops 535 and gold goes down a dollar I do not view that as a good sign for anyone .

 

[devil21]

Really kicking my own ass for selling TVIX yesterday. Ugh.

Dow -1033

Nasdaq 6777

They love to code masonic numbers into the close.

 

[Jan2017]

Dow -1033

Nasdaq 6777

They love to code masonic numbers into the close.

yeah, Dow down

-1,032.89 (4.15%)

 

[oyarde]

Yeah , at this point I guess it could go 22K tomorrow .

 

[oyarde]

Muh Philip Morris is looking good . Everyone is gonna need a pack of cigarettes soon . [MENTION=3169]Anti Federalist[/MENTION] . ( NYSE up 1 1/2 percent )

 

[oyarde]

Probably , somewhere just under 21K would be a 20 percent correction .

 

[Krugminator2]

I hope Rand causes a huge gap down tomorrow by shutting down the government.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Some wise people have said that when commodities start dropping during equity and bond market instability, when they should be rising as a safe haven, that SHTF is very soon. As unstable as equities and rising bond rates are, metals should be spiking but they're not. Oil falling also.

It's normal for commodities to drop with equities, while bonds and the dollar rally: normal "risk off." You'll know things are different this time when bonds and the dollar tank alongside stocks while commodities (esp PMs) rally; that means people fleeing dollar denominated assets altogether: currency/debt crisis. The dominoes aren't quite lined up yet, but were getting close IMO. Gold isn't surging, but it's basically flat, when "normally" it would be dropping along with stocks. Bond are still getting a bid when stocks fall, but yields run right back up when the market closes. Before today's stock plunge, yields had run back up to the recent highs; they dropped today as part of a flight to safety, but not by very much, not by as much as they did on Monday.

 

[devil21]

It's normal for commodities to drop with equities, while bonds and the dollar rally: normal "risk off." You'll know things are different this time when bonds and the dollar tank alongside stocks while commodities (esp PMs) rally; that means people fleeing dollar denominated assets altogether: currency/debt crisis. The dominoes aren't quite lined up yet, but were getting close IMO. Gold isn't surging, but it's basically flat, when "normally" it would be dropping along with stocks. Bond are still getting a bid when stocks fall, but yields run right back up when the market closes. Before today's stock plunge, yields had run back up to the recent highs; they dropped today as part of a flight to safety, but not by very much, not by as much as they did on Monday.

I think the premise of the advice was not so much that people are fleeing one asset for another but rather that the dollar units themselves that denominated the digital/paper assets are being removed from the system and the assets are being marked back to reality. IOW, the banks are cancelling out the created accounting entry dollars that make up a large portion of the markets (illusory money magic, as part of the petrodollar system, which lead to ridiculous values with no basis in reality). Across the board asset price deflation. That would make sense if a real SHTF 'dumping of the dollar' move is ongoing. The money is returning back to where it came from. Thin air.

I've been watching silver much more closely than gold, actually. The ratio is so far out of whack at 80:1 that the paper silver markets have ridiculously undervalued the physical. Paper returns to intrinsic value eventually.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

I think the premise of the advice was not so much that people are fleeing one asset for another but rather that the dollar units themselves that denominated the digital/paper assets are being removed from the system and the assets are being marked back to reality. IOW, the banks are cancelling out the created accounting entry dollars that make up a large portion of the markets (illusory money magic, as part of the petrodollar system, which lead to ridiculous values with no basis in reality). Across the board asset price deflation. That would make sense if a real SHTF 'dumping of the dollar' move is ongoing. The money is returning back to where it came from. Thin air.

I've been watching silver much more closely than gold, actually. The ratio is so far out of whack at 80:1 that the paper silver markets have ridiculously undervalued the physical. Paper returns to intrinsic value eventually.

Gotcha

That's definitely what would happen (with bank failures and so on) if this bubble-economy unwound and the Fed didn't intervene.

I think they'll intervene (and so the end game will be highly inflationary, rather than deflationary), but we'll see.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Asia down nearly 3%

As this plays out, it should be interesting to see if there's a divergence between US and other markets.

Since this is really about US debt, and isn't a banking crisis (yet) as in 08, it might be more localized.

 

[devil21]

Gotcha

That's definitely what would happen (with bank failures and so on) if this bubble-economy unwound and the Fed didn't intervene.

I think they'll intervene (and so the end game will be highly inflationary, rather than deflationary), but we'll see.

That's the thing, there's basically two sets of books in this whole dollar game. The essentially closed system of the petrodollar and the real economy. One can be deflated and the other inflated. The mantra was always "deflation then inflation" but I think that's sorta misleading. A deflation of the petrodollar system then an inflation of the real economy is a better way to look at it. Real economy debts still have to be retired with cheap new money then probably nationalize the Fed and repudiate the government debts.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Yields rose back to their highs overnight and the Dow, after starting up, is now plunging to more than -300

 

[Madison320]

Yields rose back to their highs overnight and the Dow, after starting up, is now plunging to more than -300

Yields down, stocks down. Opposite of what I expected. Good thing I'm not a day trader.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Yields down, stocks down. Opposite of what I expected. Good thing I'm not a day trader.

I'd expect yields to reach new highs over the weekend.

The only thing pushing them down today is a (tepid) flight to safety, which will evaporate and the bond selling resume after stocks close.

Then, with those higher yields, more stock market fun on Monday!

This is the pattern going foreward IMO - stocks and bonds locked in this dance with both gradually losing ground.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Dow -430, gold still about flat

 

[devil21]

Sell Mortimer sell!

And then a swing of 500 points back into green in 15 minutes. Indexes are jumping all over the place in large chunks. It sure isn't behaving like a mere correction (esp. with the numerology coded in) and with the petroyuan reportedly going live right after Chinese new year celebration, there's a whole lot of down space left to go and in a very short time, which signals volatility.

Article from Foreign Policy, CFR's rag on petroyuan launch. Chinese New Year is Feb 16, article says late March launch, which times up with Congress' latest budget kicking of the can (they've been timing them together imo) till 3-23, one day after 3-22.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/18/chinas-bid-upend-global-oil-market-petroyuan-shanghai/

So the way I see it, we've got about 6 weeks to knock at least 10k points off the Dow. Another "33" coded into the close today.