Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[HOLLYWOOD]

Dollar Down, US Markets Up... Remember this is all the Japanese patented: Lost Decades Stimulus Plan. New orders are DOWN!

Uncle Sugar spending and .Gov growth... so look for more of the same next year, and the year after that. Recoveryless Recovery.

Just like all these politicians and pundits... everything is upside down or 180 out. So I presume it's the "NEW ALGORITHM" not to get caught in deflating FRNs. Back N Forth trading... just like the Back N Forth political voting. Nice House game eh?

 

[Sarge]

H,

Market catching on.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reason-market-swoon-realistic-testimony-feds-jon-greenlee

 

[Sarge]

Can all say in trouble?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cmbs-delinquency-rates-accelerate

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Churning today.

Still thinking might be a little bounce.

 

[Sarge]

Caution. Market is sick. Note the fat finger screw up on the dollar trade today? At least, that is what they are saying now. More and more errors happening with all the HFT going on out there.

It doesn't help those that got taken to the woodshed today if, their losses are not reversed if it was a fat finger trade.

Futures are down now until they say they are not down.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Buffet to the rescue!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-buys-burlington-northern-2009-11-03

"Buffet doesn't take a Dump in the Market without a Plan"... Buffet knew the bailouts were coming to his well lobbyied connections. How much government Welfare did Buffets investments into GE, WFC, & GS? You just know Buffet has a couple of wild cards... whether it's fat government subsidies, tax writeoffs, over funded rail pensions, right of way assets, and it's all been calculated, down to the Caboose.

When you're the Money King, you make sure your Castle is secured and use the peasants to feed you.

 

[Sarge]

H,

Reporter on CNBC in CA talking about 10 percent interest free increase on taxes withheld. She said one way around it is up your exemptions. Mark said there are not any suits over it yet.

Wait for one month and see the impact.

India just bought two metric tons of gold at the high.

It might be long after Buffet and I are dead before he makes money on the rail buy.

Johnson and Johnson is going to lay off around 8K people world wide. Those are high paying jobs gone.

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Markets = Zzzzzzz.

Tomorrow is the Fed. Zzzzz until 2pm.

Expecting a bounce for week or two, so the Dow looks good going into black Friday - shopping.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Sarge, Yeah still mucha layoffs... and more garbage...

Choose, Yeah, only to be a sleeper now through NOV it appears... Zzzzz


On a bright note, they read my Live Chat post on FOX Business' 'HAPPY HOUR' today.

Basically, Ford still on Corporate Welfare(Subsidies/Tax Credits/etc) and receiving specialty loans. Plus Q3 2009 FORD had negative cash flow.

H,

Reporter on CNBC in CA talking about 10 percent interest free increase on taxes withheld. She said one way around it is up your exemptions. Mark said there are not any suits over it yet.

Wait for one month and see the impact.

India just bought two metric tons of gold at the high.

It might be long after Buffet and I are dead before he makes money on the rail buy.

Johnson and Johnson is going to lay off around 8K people world wide. Those are high paying jobs gone.

 

[Sarge]

H,

Great on getting on FOX?

I picked up a wealth of information at an intimate open house at my brokers office tonight.

Buckle up.

From a real estate agent, the commercial is ready to blow up. Housing they are trying to hold the houses off the market until Nov. or Dec. Might even stall until Jan. if they can get away with it. She said flat out at BO'S direction. She has it from two sources including one from a bank which she verified from another source.

From her husband the Oral Surgeon. Business is bad. People are putting off having dental work done until their faces are bloated from bad teeth. If you are old forget about getting anything approved under the new health care. All should think county hospitals and expect to wait hours for any treatment. Expect to get treated by interns. He got my attention when he said business was bad and I pumped him to find out why. I thought he was a GP and that could not be right.

From the head of the brokerage firm commercial, Alt A and Options are going to explode. His words, "they are shaking in their boots."

The real estate wife said she expects a bunch to fail shortly and thinks we are going to have bad holiday sales. Cit was discussed and my broker said she expects a bunch to go under from the fall out on that.

 

[Sarge]

Thought of a couple more things that were discussed. We all talked about Citigroup raising the interest rates to almost 30 percent and the potential impact. With 874B the group thought after 30 days it will be a nightmare. The Doctor's wife thought they would just walk on the debt the payments will escalate so fast.

She was saying they had two sons that just graduated from dental school and they are in CA. Neither can get a loan to get their practice started. The doctor said all these people with big student loans and they will have a hard time finding a job now.

Sort of hard to try and sleep after the conversation tonight.

 

[Sarge]

Speaks for itself,

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091103-715089.html

First of many to come.

 

[Sarge]

ISM Non MFG fell to 50.6. Estimate was for 51.6.

They could not spin that one into a positive. Prices going up not good. 30year treasury rate moving up.

 

[Sarge]

1 percent written down. Yep,

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=511111

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Looking at the Alt-A / Subprime chart... you can see that THE FED will raise interest rates after Q1 2012. So predictable

In an Oct. 28 report that has attracted the attention of several government agencies, Parkus predicted that "many hundreds" of banks will fail due to their exposure to commercial real estate.


On Friday, billionaire Wilbur Ross lent his voice to those predicting a "huge crash in commercial real estate," Bloomberg reported. Fellow megainvestor George Soros predicted a "bloodletting."

1 percent written down. Yep,

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=511111http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=511111

 

[Sarge]

H,

That is what the real estate lady told me last night. She said the FED was going to stall it as long as they can.

Take a look at this I just picked up on from another board.,

"Meredith Whitney's latest thoughts, higher interest rates?
Bank analyst Meredith Whitney out with two notes to clients over night:
1) Ain't Gonna Happen, where she argues that "normalized" earnings for banks is a fallacy, that it's more likely we will see protracted consumer deleveraging, fewer consumers who qualify for credit, and dramatic regulatory change, which will negatively impact earnings for a protracted period, and
2) The Great Exit: The Biggest Market & Bank Risk Over the Next Four Months, a long note on the importance of the Fed's agency MBS purchase program, where she argues that uncertainty over when the program will end (now scheduled for end of Q1 2010), and who the substitute buyer for the Fed will be, means that "prices will go down meaningfully and rates will go up meaningfully." She argues that it is possible the mortgage market will again shrink notably: "We believe this represents one of the larger risks to the banks and overall market over the next several months."

 

[Sarge]

10 year and 30 year interest rates moving up.

Rick Santelli said watch out for 11/15 CPI. The old low numbers roll off and from what I gather he thinks the CPI jumps. ie inflation.

 

[ChooseLiberty]

Seems pretty much everything "they" are doing is trying to buy time.

The Fraud, er Fed, announce. was a non-event.

They're still working on propping the Dow.

Here's the thing, if it can't break to new highs - Tick f'ing Tock.

H,

That is what the real estate lady told me last night. She said the FED was going to stall it as long as they can.

Take a look at this I just picked up on from another board.,

"Meredith Whitney's latest thoughts, higher interest rates?
Bank analyst Meredith Whitney out with two notes to clients over night:
1) Ain't Gonna Happen, where she argues that "normalized" earnings for banks is a fallacy, that it's more likely we will see protracted consumer deleveraging, fewer consumers who qualify for credit, and dramatic regulatory change, which will negatively impact earnings for a protracted period, and
2) The Great Exit: The Biggest Market & Bank Risk Over the Next Four Months, a long note on the importance of the Fed's agency MBS purchase program, where she argues that uncertainty over when the program will end (now scheduled for end of Q1 2010), and who the substitute buyer for the Fed will be, means that "prices will go down meaningfully and rates will go up meaningfully." She argues that it is possible the mortgage market will again shrink notably: "We believe this represents one of the larger risks to the banks and overall market over the next several months."

 

[Sarge]

These people are not going to keep it up,

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/11/04/consumer-bankruptcies-rose-in-october/

Nor these,

"Commercial bankruptcies among the
nation's more than 25 million small businesses increased by 44% from the third
quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, according to Equifax Inc. (NYSE:
EFX), which analyzes its comprehensive small business database for the
on-going study.

Wait until Jan, and see how that number explodes.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

LOL... I love the FED's UNANIMOUS verbage: "...NO CHANGE... The Fed FOMC - CONTINUES TO BELIEthVE that economic conditions are LIKELY TO WARRANT EXCEPTIONALLY LOW LEVELS... blah blah"

The DEPRESSION continues...

$1.25 Trillion in NMS
$1.75 Trillion in Agency (Fannie & Freddie Crap) down $25 Billion

$300 Billion in US Treasuries completed (They're Selling Debt to Themselves)