Major support broken in silver?
- Thread starter fatjohn
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swissaustrian
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I wouldn´t be too worried until it goes below the 200 dma which is 31,3:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
The last takedown was correlated to the oil market "intervention".
Furthermore, july options expiry is on monday which means some big players need to "manage" the price to a certain level.
I think we are in a trading range between $32 and $ 38.
Futures are still in massive backwardation: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html
Registered inventories of the comex drop and drop: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
The last takedown was correlated to the oil market "intervention".
Furthermore, july options expiry is on monday which means some big players need to "manage" the price to a certain level.
I think we are in a trading range between $32 and $ 38.
Futures are still in massive backwardation: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html
Registered inventories of the comex drop and drop: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls
ctb619
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squarepusher
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Silver is a religion!
specsaregood
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Still looking good to me. Hell, drop it in half again and I'll buy some more although even at that price it would be upping my average $/oz.
Johnnybags
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Look, the Bernank does not like bank money going to silver or any other commodity. It will be crushed until qe3 or the next money print is announced in 30 days or so. An example of non mania is nickel which is where it was years ago. Look at oil they are jawboning down. I would not be surprised if silver hits 20 again on its way to 80. The idiots know they cannot print without a break because noone will leave any dollars in banks or treasuries. And you should expect a run to liquidation again as it looks like the world is falling apart and Bernanke can then save us.
Short term is not looking pretty in my opinion, from a technical perspective of course. I have buy orders in starting at 30 going down to 26. Things can change though, it is tough to say when you have people openly rigging the markets. We saw the fall from 50 because they raised margin requirements five times in nine days. Charts didn't help then and charts can never predict manipulation or fed policy! There is a wild card in all of this and it happens to trump all other indicators, its called Ben Bernanke! lol
The important thing is to understand the difference between a cyclical bull/bear market and a secular bull/bear market.
Silver/gold/commodities are in a secular bull market still (the decade-ish long rise in value).
Silver is in a bearish correction with strong support and a so far positive cosolidation. The secular nature of the bull market for silver is in NO WAY over.
A deflationary systemic crash, a la 2008 would likely result in a drop for silver to 16? 17? 20?
All of those fiat denominated prices would still represent a 100-150% increase in nominal fiat value over the last systemic deflationary crash (2008).
The global flight to safety and well leveraged assets is on in a MAJOR way...GLOBALLY.
Gold and silver are actually best suited to protect in DEFLATIONARY environments.
Silver/gold/commodities are in a secular bull market still (the decade-ish long rise in value).
Silver is in a bearish correction with strong support and a so far positive cosolidation. The secular nature of the bull market for silver is in NO WAY over.
A deflationary systemic crash, a la 2008 would likely result in a drop for silver to 16? 17? 20?
All of those fiat denominated prices would still represent a 100-150% increase in nominal fiat value over the last systemic deflationary crash (2008).
The global flight to safety and well leveraged assets is on in a MAJOR way...GLOBALLY.
Gold and silver are actually best suited to protect in DEFLATIONARY environments.
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To UK4Paul: That can be said about most asset classes...so yeah you're right. If deflation unwinds prices silver will fall, so will everything else. On a purchasing power basis, in those conditions, liqudity like silver actually increases in real term purchasing power.
I would note however that the Fed will continue in a very similar fasion and either not disclose the actions or call it by something completely different than Quantitative Easing (political reasons).
Folks, Bernanke has explicitly stated that under his watch the Great Depression 2 will not occur. While that remains to be seen, he has been taught to the highest degree that most of the Feds actions should be the diametric opposite to what was done in the 1930's.
The result for the big banks will be the same - they win. But the message and actions to the people is the reverse - no drawn out deflation allowed. Too bad Mr. Bernanke. The markets are so highly leveraged that your dillusional fantansies of centralized economic planning for the good are simply not possible.
Deflation of credit is what DEFLATION actually is. Control of credit through the control of the currency is the basis of their system. Deflation in essences is just the growing scarcity of cash and availability of credit.
Deflation has nothing to do with prices - despite what the propagandized masses are fed. Keynesian fallacy.
The dirty little secret about the Great Depression is that the living standards for the 75% of the employed people of America saw a tremendous INCREASE in their living standards. Their wages largely remained the same but their production fueled lower prices in tandem with the growing scarcity for cash (which decreases nominal prices).
The Great Depression was AWEFUL for about 25% of people, and GOOD for 75% of people. This was largely due to the fact that most people stayed employeed and watched prices fall as they continued getting the same pay check. That fuels demand as prices fall back to more reasonable levels and people can start purchasing and leveraging back into the game.
Today we are seeing the same contraction of credit - it's both a phenomenon of systemic deleveraging and the individuals within that system realizing that things are unbalanced and a realigning must occur.
The difference is that with the centralized printing presses still hot and the masters with their fingers on the button - they are gonig to drag this thing out for a long time (DECADE?) and the conditions will simply create stagflation. Patience testing slow down in economic growth, while the paper needed to pay off the now inflated legal tender debts dispurses into the system...creating substantially higher prices while wages stagnate and growth stagnates.
Not fun.
Mr. Bernanke - please allow the markets to reset themselves and DEFLATE.
Let it be quick and efficient (which by the way helps your precious banks). Stop drawing this sucker out.
The goal is to inflate away the debts while pushing real interest rates into the negative and consumer and corporate interest rates as close to 0% as possible.
I would note however that the Fed will continue in a very similar fasion and either not disclose the actions or call it by something completely different than Quantitative Easing (political reasons).
Folks, Bernanke has explicitly stated that under his watch the Great Depression 2 will not occur. While that remains to be seen, he has been taught to the highest degree that most of the Feds actions should be the diametric opposite to what was done in the 1930's.
The result for the big banks will be the same - they win. But the message and actions to the people is the reverse - no drawn out deflation allowed. Too bad Mr. Bernanke. The markets are so highly leveraged that your dillusional fantansies of centralized economic planning for the good are simply not possible.
Deflation of credit is what DEFLATION actually is. Control of credit through the control of the currency is the basis of their system. Deflation in essences is just the growing scarcity of cash and availability of credit.
Deflation has nothing to do with prices - despite what the propagandized masses are fed. Keynesian fallacy.
The dirty little secret about the Great Depression is that the living standards for the 75% of the employed people of America saw a tremendous INCREASE in their living standards. Their wages largely remained the same but their production fueled lower prices in tandem with the growing scarcity for cash (which decreases nominal prices).
The Great Depression was AWEFUL for about 25% of people, and GOOD for 75% of people. This was largely due to the fact that most people stayed employeed and watched prices fall as they continued getting the same pay check. That fuels demand as prices fall back to more reasonable levels and people can start purchasing and leveraging back into the game.
Today we are seeing the same contraction of credit - it's both a phenomenon of systemic deleveraging and the individuals within that system realizing that things are unbalanced and a realigning must occur.
The difference is that with the centralized printing presses still hot and the masters with their fingers on the button - they are gonig to drag this thing out for a long time (DECADE?) and the conditions will simply create stagflation. Patience testing slow down in economic growth, while the paper needed to pay off the now inflated legal tender debts dispurses into the system...creating substantially higher prices while wages stagnate and growth stagnates.
Not fun.
Mr. Bernanke - please allow the markets to reset themselves and DEFLATE.
Let it be quick and efficient (which by the way helps your precious banks). Stop drawing this sucker out.
The goal is to inflate away the debts while pushing real interest rates into the negative and consumer and corporate interest rates as close to 0% as possible.
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