Maine Saturday Open Thread

[Highstreet]

paulticalfan and all of the Maine RP Supporters congratulations on a great day!!! Your efforts were extraordinary!!

As I said earlier in the thread, if a few RP Forum Members wish to pursue the remaining Maine Caucus and the State's straw poll results, by all means please start a new thread and go for it. You have all of our support.

But, frankly the RP Forum as a whole has to move quickly to aggressively support the next 12 Primaries and Caucus's that occur in the next 17 days.

Ron Paul is begging for Phone from Home Callers immediately to call their identified TOP PRIORITY States which are, Alaska, Washington and North Dakota.

Let's refocus....Super Tuesday is almost upon us!!!

Well Said.

 

[gorgonzola]

paulticalfan and all of the Maine RP Supporters congratulations on a great day!!! Your efforts were extraordinary!!

As I said earlier in the thread, if a few RP Forum Members wish to pursue the remaining Maine Caucus and the State's straw poll results, by all means please start a new thread and go for it. You have all of our support.

But, frankly the RP Forum as a whole has to move quickly to aggressively support the next 12 Primaries and Caucus's that occur in the next 17 days.

Ron Paul is begging for Phone from Home Callers immediately to call their identified TOP PRIORITY States which are, Alaska, Washington and North Dakota.

Let's refocus....Super Tuesday is almost upon us!!!

I concur. We came squeaky close in the Maine poll (may have gained more delegates though), but time to push forward.

I have folks in AK and in WA who had called me. Now it's time to call them back.

Thanx for the face slap Seawolf--I guess I needed it.

 

[GregVernon]

Yeah, there's no question we would have won if colleges were not on break. No fucking question. There needs to be state laws against holding caucuses while schools are out of session. So blatantly unfair.

I don't see how this is unfair. Students going to school aren't typically eligible for voting in the community where they're attending school.

 

[fpearson]

Old Total:
2,269 - Romney
2,032 - Paul

New Total:
2,372 - Romney
2,257 - Paul

We lost by 115.

113 if we want to count the unreported New Portland caucus.

According to this local report:

Youtube Video

Ron Paul is now behind by 84 votes not including any of the shenanegans in Waldo!

Spread Sheet

 

[fpearson]

I don't know where my post went.. According to my count, based on Washington and Hancock added to last week released totals, RP is only behind by 84 votes not including the issues from Waldo:

Local Report: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA5iMBM30Yc

Document With Tally: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al4iVpVZtE70dGV6cklHb05zMjNjclVUTDEwdVcxM1E#gid=0

I wonder if what we are not seeing is fixed results from Waldo added in going heavily for Romney just like in Belfast. One way or another, contrary to reports, something went heavily for Romney by a magnitude of about 80 votes and they are not telling us what that is.

Anybody else think this is fishy?

 

[Peace&Freedom]

It's still unsettling to see only roughly 5000 votes in a GOP caucus from a state that has millions of people in it.

Also, although no reported errors and irregularities are being reported YET for today's counting in Maine, remember that the irregularities/rigging from last week took a week to emerge fully. Could be a re-run.

 

[parocks]

Yeah, there's no question we would have won if colleges were not on break. No fucking question. There needs to be state laws against holding caucuses while schools are out of session. So blatantly unfair.

Disagree. Orono - the biggest college in Maine - 11 votes for Ron Paul.

Yes, there were 1000 students missing in Machias yesterday.

But if they were there, we cannot simply say they would've voted.

College students require extra GOTV.

Do we do extra GOTV?

Can you point to great numbers anywhere from any college anywhere?

University of Minnesota - 50K students - did we get huge numbers from there? Ward 2 Precinct 4, Ward 2 Precinct 11. Both containing a number of huge dorms.
Did we get huge numbers there? Hundreds of votes? No.

Getting college students to vote on election day is not a priority of the campaign. The campaign does not want to do extra GOTV, Democrat-style GOTV.

The official campaign is worried about "rogue volunteers" and has always been worried about "rogue volunteers". Always puts the word out "no rogue volunteers" but
that usually means "no extra GOTV". And you need extra GOTV to pull extra people in to the polls. We need those extra people.

The campaign is effective at what they do, which involves a lot of phone calling - phone from home. Hasn't been effective enough to actually WIN though.

 

[parocks]

I don't know where my post went.. According to my count, based on Washington and Hancock added to last week released totals, RP is only behind by 84 votes not including the issues from Waldo:

Local Report: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA5iMBM30Yc

Document With Tally: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al4iVpVZtE70dGV6cklHb05zMjNjclVUTDEwdVcxM1E#gid=0

I wonder if what we are not seeing is fixed results from Waldo added in going heavily for Romney just like in Belfast. One way or another, contrary to reports, something went heavily for Romney by a magnitude of about 80 votes and they are not telling us what that is.

Anybody else think this is fishy?

No. There's nothing fishy at this point.

All of the corrections that we wanted made on Friday were made.

I have not yet heard of any mistakes.

If there were mistakes, that we knew about, we would be talking about them, unless we were holding back our ammo for another time.

Here's what we have.

In Somerset, New Portland had 2 votes for Ron Paul. But those votes weren't counted, apparently because the town clerk did not show up.

I still havent heard about the Danforth caucus yesterday.

Do not use the Watch The Vote totals at this point.

 

[parocks]

I don't see how this is unfair. Students going to school aren't typically eligible for voting in the community where they're attending school.

Students are eligible for voting in those towns where they go to school.

But we wouldn't have turned them out, gotten them to vote. Because we never do.

 

[parocks]

they aren't counting rome, where we gained 2, and they aren't counting new portland, where we gained 2 (but that still isn't being reported by GOP).

We should be leaving New Portland off.

What about the Danforth Caucus?

 

[parocks]

please , we would have won if there was no fraud full stop

what fraud?

Incompetence, lots and lots of error, the performance of someone who should no longer be the head of the Maine GOP, but I would like to hear exactly what the fraud was again, especially at the state level.

At the county or town level, there were problems in Portland and other towns in Cumberland, and there were problems at Somerset.

 

[gorgonzola]

It is just my anecdotal observation but I have been seeing more "remnants" than college kids.

During the Waterville caucus I only saw a half dozen or so of college age. This is the home of Colby and Thomas colleges.

I met a couple of ladies in their 80s with RP buttons on who were reluctant to be delegates because they thought it was too much for them to handle.

I was able to convince them it was a piece of cake and would enrich their lives and make them smile. LOL and they laughed too.

 

[Keith and stuff]

It's still unsettling to see only roughly 5000 votes in a GOP caucus from a state that has millions of people in it.

Also, although no reported errors and irregularities are being reported YET for today's counting in Maine, remember that the irregularities/rigging from last week took a week to emerge fully. Could be a re-run.

There aren't millions of people in Maine. There are just over 1,300,000 people in Maine. Maine might be the worst state so far when it comes to get out the vote, but CO, NV and MN are also terrible. The caucus system keeps away most supporters for most candidates. While Ron Paul is better able to do GOTV in caucus states than any other candidate this time, he still comes up short of winning. The only reason that a not completely pathetic amount of people voted in IA is that is is the first and by far the most important caucus. The people that live in IA know that they are extra special people and campaigns spend a lot of money to bring them out.

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul compared
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry....state-population-voting-for-Ron-Paul-compared

1. New Hampshire 4.3%
2. South Carolina 1.7%
3. Iowa 0.9%
4. Florida 0.6%
5. Missouri 0.5%
6. Minnesota 0.3%
7. Nevada 0.2%
8. Colorado 0.2%
9. Maine 0.2%

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

What fraud?

Incompetence, lots and lots of error

When that happens over and over and over and over again, it starts to look like fraud. And when all of the incompetence and errors seem to move in the same direction, it also starts to look like fraud. Of course, if you are the person responsible for such things, you say it's "error."

 

[Titus]

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/02/16/how-ron-paul-may-have-won-and-lost-maine/ Reuters is getting on board and saying that Mitt Romney should not have been declared the winner yet.

 

[AlexAmore]

Yeah, there's no question we would have won if colleges were not on break. No fucking question. There needs to be state laws against holding caucuses while schools are out of session. So blatantly unfair.

If there's one phrase that is the antithesis of this forum and libertarianism it's "there should be a law...", in your case it's "need". Also "unfair" can be added to that category as well. Not much is truly unfair. As libertarians we do get fucked over pretty easily thanks to our small numbers and having nobody with any real power anywhere. But thats all part of it. Our ideology doesn't have the long history and built up power that liberalism does. We have a tough road ahead of us, but we do have a new tool called the Internet so there is some hope.

 

[parocks]

When that happens over and over and over and over again, it starts to look like fraud. And when all of the incompetence and errors seem to move in the same direction, it also starts to look like fraud. Of course, if you are the person responsible for such things, you say it's "error."

Well, I was one of the first people here to analyze the data that came out last week. I caught the Waldo error, the Waterville error, and posted about them here last Sunday night. So, I'm not one to say "oh, everything's fine" I caught missing data, erroneous totals, saw strange boosts in turnout, etc.

But, from what I can tell, they fixed the errors.

There might be fraud. I have no idea. But what I'd like to see is some actual, real allegations of something. Not crazy math.

It's easy to get the real count.

Start with the most recent data from the Maine GOP. They have fixed most of the errors, if not 100%.

Question 1 - do you have any problems at all with the Maine GOP data? If so, what exactly should be changed or modified? Yes, the totals are still screwed up.
But we only care about Paul and Romney at this point. Are Pauls totals right? Are Romney's totals right? If no, what town needs corrected?

I would argue that New Portland (and perhaps other towns in Somerset County) fall under this category. Apparently, one of the higherups in Somerset County wouldn't could the votes unless the town had the town clerk there.

But, we have a number from the Maine GOP, Paul down by 239.

Then, just add the results of the caucuses.

Rome, Clinton in Kennebec
2 supercaucuses in Hancock
The Washington County caucus and the Danforth Caucus.

And then you have your number.

There isn't any mystery.

If you have specific allegations of fraud in any particular case, make them.

By the way, the data for the Danforth Caucus - not included in some Washington County totals, is

Romney 6
Paul 4
Santorum 2
Gingrich 1.

If the Wash Co totals you're using have Ron Paul 167, they include the Danforth. If the Wash Co totals you're using have Ron Paul 163, you have totals without Danforth.

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Well, I was one of the first people here to analyze the data that came out last week. I caught the Waldo error, the Waterville error, and posted about them here last Sunday night. So, I'm not one to say "oh, everything's fine" I caught missing data, erroneous totals, saw strange boosts in turnout, etc.

But, from what I can tell, they fixed the errors.

There might be fraud. I have no idea. But what I'd like to see is some actual, real allegations of something. Not crazy math.

It's easy to get the real count.

From what I understand, they immediately destroyed the evidence of the real count.

Start with the most recent data from the Maine GOP.

Normally, people would start with the evidence they destroyed. That only makes the "errors" more suspicious when the evidence to fix the errors is immediately destroyed. If that is your starting point for determining fraud, you may detect nothing, which was the whole point of destroying the evidence. My "you" was not specifically toward you, btw.

 

[parocks]

From what I understand, they immediately destroyed the evidence of the real count.





Normally, people would start with the evidence they destroyed. That only makes the "errors" more suspicious when the evidence to fix the errors is immediately destroyed. If that is your starting point for determining fraud, you may detect nothing, which was the whole point of destroying the evidence. My "you" was not specifically toward you, btw.

They did a lot of suspicious things. Your argument is that they set it up so that fraud could be committed. Not that fraud was committed.

We passed a motion in my town to count the votes and keep a record in the town and send the results to the county. The records weren't destroyed. Not in all cases at least. We did this on the 4th. That motion was well publicized after the 4th, and downloadable by the Ron Paul campaign who could've pressed the issue, and may have pressed the issue.

What Charlie did was say "we can't do a recount, but we can ask the towns to send the results again". The towns should have records. I don't think votes were counted at the state GOP level. They were tallied at that level.

You're argument seems to be that unless a whole bunch of conditions are met, then there IS fraud.

 

[losinglife]

44 pages..... f that

so what is the conclusion so far?

Romney still taking Maine? Did Paul come out a head (assuming he didnt since noone is creaming themselves yet). Did santorum pull out a magical victory?