Looks like Ron Paul will win Iowa or come 2nd and Shock the USA

[shasshas]

Could you explain this a little more? And give a link if it's "already been discredited"

this is one of the threads which discusses the article :-
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=71939&highlight=voter+donor
i think that is hat austin meant

i had trouble finding the thread.

 

[austin356]

this is one of the threads which discusses the article :-
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=71939&highlight=voter+donor
i think that is hat austin meant

i had trouble finding the thread.

Yea THANKS. could not find it in the sea of many threads!

And yes "discredited" was a bad word. "discussed" would be a much better word.


I am not really discrediting the analysis (cause it is very interesting and way of looking at things absolutely ignored most everyone else, at least publically), but rather just pointing out some errors. But it turns out the errors work both for and against us and imo will just by chance cancel each other out and make the actual prediction made under the equation correct.


Here is a tidbit of positive information for yall's spirits:


The second week of Nov. the campaign in Iowa had contact information for 5,000 Ron Paul supporters in Iowa. The first week of Dec. the Iowa State Chairman was filmed talking to supporters saying the number of "registered supporters" (as in registered w/ the campaign) in Iowa has "Doubled in the past three weeks". This would mean 10,000 were registered supporters as of the end of the first week of Dec. Again these are people who are registered as supporters with the campaign.

 

[Mark Mosconi]

I won't even venture a guess. I don't wanna get my hopes up and have them shattered. I only hope we do well.

 

[parocks]

Hey, I say if people want to have high expectations let them. If not we start sounding professional like the talking heads. What would be better to have fun, and hope for first, or not have fun and hope for third. I think the hope for a first place finish is more energizing. We didn't raise 6 million in one day hoping for 3rd. I'm not a realist...i'm an idealist...let us idealists have fun.

How about "I know that we're expected by the media to do really badly. We're not taken seriously by them. But I think that we are going to do much better than expectations. I think we'll come in 1st." You can still hope for first, and get energized, but it's important that we can then say "hey, news media, we did much better than you expected we'd do. Because of that, our finish is more surprising and therefore more newsworthy than any other candidates finish, so we should be the lead story. Give us lots of praise now, thank you."

What a lot of people don't seem to understand is that the word "expectations" is a term of art in politics. It's not a synonym for hope, or a personal prediction.

I hope we come in first. I predict that we will exceed expectations. 3rd place is definitely exceeding expectations. Expectations are largely defined by polls.
We have to assume that polls are accurate, else why would there be polls?
(We know better).

 

[thoughtbombing]

im happy with 4th place.

BOO THIS MAN!

 

[Liberty Star]

3rd or better in Iowa will be great.

 

[PubliusPublicola]

Alan Keyes had 14% in 2000.

Turn-out that year was approx 86,000 and 6.8% (according to this).

I predict a 3rd place slot with somewhere between 15-18%, because i think Paul will have approximately 10,000 unforeseen votes (i.e. the polling missed them)... and i think the total turn-out will be just over 100,000.

As for voting irregularities, I think we'll see them mostly on the democratic side...

This is going to boil down to hard work and voter turn-out, not conspiracies.

 

[stevedasbach]

I think Iowa is going to be stolen from us, Iowa is far too important for the powers that be to let Ron Paul place high. I guarantee you that there will be a huge vote fraud issue that will come out of this. New Hampshire on the other hand we will win. Only 50% of the votes there are electronic so expect the votes in those districts to be really low for Ron Paul while the others will be dominated by Ron Paul supporters.


I just hope our guys do a good job and expose the truth.

Very difficult to steal Iowa. People write their choice on a piece of paper, which are counted and announced at the caucus. The results are then sent to a central location, tabulated, and announced.

Any campaign can have their supporters call in the results from each location and run their own tally.

How exactly do you steal an election like that?

 

[fireworks_god]

All votes should be that way.