The price of oil is not going to fall to $50 a barrel because the price of oil is not related to the supply. It is related to the buying power of the USD. Oil is high because the dollar is low. Oil prices came down some last week because the dollar was stronger.
$50 a barrel oil would only be the result of a much stronger USD.
That assumes that the dollar is the reserve currency. What if oil is no longer traded in dollars?