fatjohn
Member
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2008
- Messages
- 2,285
I'm an engineer and loved aerospace in particular and everything with wings.
I'm therefore biased and think a wind turbine is a majestic machine by default.
But what a lot of people who want to bash renewables dont seem to get is that the technology has come a long way.
Not in a big way but every couple of years a tiny bit better.
As the size goes up, it's output has been going up with the square.
Also the efficiency has been inching upwards compounding on that exponential rise even more.
Wind turbines are therefore really coming at the size where they can be the main power generation stations of an economy.
In the EU + UK they already generate 15% of the electricity and this is set to double in the next 10 years.
I fully expect the future energy mix in the EU in say 15 years from now to be 40% wind / 30% solar / 15% hydro / 8% gas / 7% nuclear (basically just 50% of france).
The current high end turbines are rated at 15MW, capable of generating 75 GWh per year. Almost 10x the size they were 20 years ago (most of those that you see standing around are of this size.)
Meanwhile the entire EU + UK only consumes 3000 TWh per year. That's just 40,000 turbines.
Thats not a whole lot.
Anyway Europe 2050 could just be wind and solar parks and then hydro stations, industrial battery packs and gas peaker plants to smooth out the grid.
I think all heating and transportation will be fully electric by then and electricity consumption will probably have doubled to 6000 TWh.
For 40-50% on wind you would just need about 40000 of the current size turbines, but by then turbines twice the power will probably be common place and we'd be looking at about 20000 turbines with a peak height of 300m and a rated power of 30 MW and yearly output of 150 GWh.
I think there will be a huge boon in the near future of whichever region really harnesses the power of wind in the coming decade.
Europe paid a lot for being too early but they might finally start to reap the rewards.
I'm therefore biased and think a wind turbine is a majestic machine by default.
But what a lot of people who want to bash renewables dont seem to get is that the technology has come a long way.
Not in a big way but every couple of years a tiny bit better.
As the size goes up, it's output has been going up with the square.
Also the efficiency has been inching upwards compounding on that exponential rise even more.
Wind turbines are therefore really coming at the size where they can be the main power generation stations of an economy.
In the EU + UK they already generate 15% of the electricity and this is set to double in the next 10 years.
I fully expect the future energy mix in the EU in say 15 years from now to be 40% wind / 30% solar / 15% hydro / 8% gas / 7% nuclear (basically just 50% of france).
The current high end turbines are rated at 15MW, capable of generating 75 GWh per year. Almost 10x the size they were 20 years ago (most of those that you see standing around are of this size.)
Meanwhile the entire EU + UK only consumes 3000 TWh per year. That's just 40,000 turbines.
Thats not a whole lot.
Anyway Europe 2050 could just be wind and solar parks and then hydro stations, industrial battery packs and gas peaker plants to smooth out the grid.
I think all heating and transportation will be fully electric by then and electricity consumption will probably have doubled to 6000 TWh.
For 40-50% on wind you would just need about 40000 of the current size turbines, but by then turbines twice the power will probably be common place and we'd be looking at about 20000 turbines with a peak height of 300m and a rated power of 30 MW and yearly output of 150 GWh.
I think there will be a huge boon in the near future of whichever region really harnesses the power of wind in the coming decade.
Europe paid a lot for being too early but they might finally start to reap the rewards.
