Lepard opinion of financial crisis

[llepard]

This is not investment advice, it is an opinion.

This message is depressing. I you do not want to contemplate a serious financial downturn stop reading here.

Everyone on this forum is unique and I owe this forum a debt from the assistance they gave me when I wrote the advertisemnts. People on this forum are good people and I want to help if I can.

Don't let this rally in stocks and drop in gold and oil fool you.

It is a sucker's rally.

I have gotten extremely defensive. I have no long stock positions and that is my business!

I buy gold and silver on a regular basis.

I think we are going to have a bank and stock market collapse and I think it is coming soon. (weeks or at most months) I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I am right. There are too many problems coming to a head all at once and the Government will make them worse, rather than propose real solutions.

How did we get here? Think coin in the fuse box, or giving the drunk another drink after he falls down. The natural corrective processes of the market have been blocked. Therefore, a lot of inbalances have built up and now an earthquake of pressure is going to hit us.

The bad news is times will be tough. The good news is a lot of very rich people will be made poor, and perhaps more humble. Related good news is that we and Ron Paul will be proven right, and perhaps we will be listened to in the future.

People who can work will be fine.

Stocks will go down. Way down. The dollar will go down, perhaps to zero. Bonds will be worthless. Most debt will be uncollected. Think the 1930's only worse.

I just put in an order for a Prius. Gas prices will go higher. I bought a bicycle, just in case.

I am cutting expenses mercilessly and raising cash from all sources.

I only have a few debts but I am not paying them off. It will be easier to pay them off in the future with worthless dollars. Of course I have the resources to make the monthly payments and will not lose the underlying assets.

Think dollar worthless. Assets fine after 5-10 years, but in the interim going down in price, so don't lose them. Think essentials going up in price. Food, oil. Think gold and silver going up in price.

I would not have more than $100,000 in one bank. Even that I would be careful on because a bank holiday could close the banks for weeks.

I would not do business with any NY or money center bank. They all have derivative exposure.

I would have some food stored away.

Like I say, I hope I am wrong.

But, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early.

Best, LWL

 

[Indy Vidual]

...Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early....

Great post llepard, thanks.
Here is some good advice you don't see too often:

If you do not drink, buy several large Rum bottles.
They will rise in value, and will be easy to trade for food, or other valuables.

If you do drink:

Either quit soon, or buy several large Rum bottles. You'll be wanting them later this year.

 

[rancher89]

I'm with you

 

[Kludge]

Great post llepard, thanks.
Here is some good advice you don't see too often:

If you do not drink, buy several large Rum bottles.
They will rise in value, and will be easy to trade for food, or other valuables.

If you do drink:

Either quit soon, or buy several large Rum bottles. You'll be wanting them later this year.

I'd bet cigarettes would fare better in bringing me a feast.

 

[rprprs]

llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

 

[rancher89]

llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

my thoughts exactly, better off in silver and gold if you have that much wealth

 

[raystone]

llepard - thank you for the extremely important and well written post

remember, this is from a financially successful (and probably very smart) man, please read again and take heed

 

[SnappleLlama]

I hope to someday know what it's like to have $100,000 in one bank...

 

[llepard]

llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

I agree. Best would be to have no money in banks at all. My only point is that I am confident that insured depositors will be made whole by the Government. They have said repeatedly that they will protect them and protect the system. Where will the money come from? They will print it. What will that money be worth? Anyone's guess, but less than it is worth today, that is for sure. The problem is that printing money will destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. So, yes, your point is correct. No money in banks if possible. But for many that is impractical.

The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly?

Another piece of interesting information. I was at my coin dealer yesterday buying gold coins. He is a big dealer in the Boston area. I asked him what his volume was this year compared to last. He said he had sold 4-5x more coins this year than last year (not sure if this year to date or 6 month v. 6 month data) but either he is up 4x or 8x. Boston area has a lot of intelligent wealth. What does that tell you about how people with money in Boston are voting on the value of the dollar versus gold. I sense a trend in motion. Remember the trend is your friend.

LWL

 

[Ninja Homer]

The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly.

LWL

Wow, a .gov list of failed banks with only 1 bank in the dropdown. Thanks for that link, but I don't know whether to laugh or scream about it... I guess a little of both.

 

[liberteebell]

I hope to someday know what it's like to have $100,000 in one bank...

$100,000 anywhere would be nice right about now.

llepard, thank you for your post. I hope you're wrong too but as one of those middle class folks who has, up until the past year done modestly well (wasn't in debt, didn't have money worries), I believe you're probably correct.

I realize you're not offering investment advice (I don't have anything to invest anyway) but could you offer an opinion to those of us who don't have money to buy gold and silver, who maybe have small retirement investments (such as 401ks) that are tanking and who can hardly make ends meet as it is? I'm already cutting expenses mercilessly.

Also, could you clarify your statement "people who can work will be fine"? I and many others I know are working our butts off now but it's not enough to cover the nut.

I'd rather panic early too...

 

[rprprs]

llepard, thanks for your reply. And thanks for that FDIC link. That is very telling. While Indymac is the only institution currently listed, you can bet such a website wouldn't exist if they thought that was going to be the only casualty. As you say, ahead of the curve, indeed.

 

[llepard]

$100,000 anywhere would be nice right about now.


I realize you're not offering investment advice (I don't have anything to invest anyway) but could you offer an opinion to those of us who don't have money to buy gold and silver, who maybe have small retirement investments (such as 401ks) that are tanking and who can hardly make ends meet as it is? I'm already cutting expenses mercilessly.

Also, could you clarify your statement "people who can work will be fine"? I and many others I know are working our butts off now but it's not enough to cover the nut.

I'd rather panic early too...

If you have a 401K or IRA that holds stocks or bonds convert it into cash. ASAP

Buy gold and silver with the proceeds.

Or, if you can use the IRA or 401K to buy RYTPX. a fund that will go up 2x what the S&P 500 index does. eg: index down 10%, fund up 20%. OR SRS, an etf that is 2x the inverse of the reit index.

 

[Kade]

Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early.

That's great advice.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Do you think IRAs and 401Ks will be safe? I've always worried that they might be confiscated at some point and because of that, there may be a time when it makes sense to pay the penalty and get out of them.

 

[llepard]

Do you think IRAs and 401Ks will be safe? I've always worried that they might be confiscated at some point and because of that, there may be a time when it makes sense to pay the penalty and get out of them.

Agree. But we are not there yet IMHO. I am watching though.....

 

[LibertyEagle]

What are your thoughts about money markets and how to stay safer with them?

 

[Sandra]

Thanks LL for the post. We are currently trying to ready our community fo hard times. Most people don't want to hear he hard truth of future events but hopefully they will come around. Only thing we can do for sure is ready ourselves.

 

[llepard]

What are your thoughts about money markets and how to stay safer with them?

I would avoid them. Some hold bad paper and derivatives. Not all, but some.

 

[amy31416]

Thanks for all the information so far. I have a mother who's just hit retirement age, she'll have my father's pension (he's deceased), social security and savings. Her house is paid off. Would you think that gold/silver investments are also good for her? I already got her stocked up on canned goods, etc.

We also just got notice that heating costs will be going up by 50% this winter, so I'm getting her old windows replaced, getting the chimney swept and will be stocking up on wood for her fireplace. I'm doing this under the "guise" of being a good daughter and haven't been mentioning anything about bank runs, economic collapse, etc. because I don't want to worry her, but I'd also like to do everything I can to insulate her. Any suggestions are welcome.