Latest Poll: Hillary and Trump are tied in Florida again

[enhanced_deficit]

Has Hillary's "massive" Khizr Khan bounce vanished due to DNC staffer killing/Wikileak reward news?


In new polls, Clinton edges Trump in swing states


USA TODAY
August 9, 2016

Hillary Clinton leads in Pennsylvania and Ohio and is in a virtual tie with Donald Trump in Florida in a Quinnipiac poll of swing states released Tuesday.
In two-way matchups, Clinton was ahead of Trump in all three states — though her 1-point lead in Florida is within the margin of error. In Florida, Clinton led 46%-45%, in Ohio she led 49%-45%, and in Pennsylvania she was up 10 points: 52%-42%.
When third-party candidates are included in the race in Florida, Clinton and Trump were tied at 43%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had the support of 7% of likely voters in the state and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 3%.

In Ohio, Clinton was just 2 points ahead of Trump 44%-42% (also within the margin of error), Johnson had the support of 8% of those surveyed, and Stein had 3%.

The telephone poll July 30-Aug. 7 surveyed 1,056 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. The poll in Ohio included 812 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, and in Pennsylvania the poll included 815 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ll-clinton-edges-trump-swing-states/88476222/

 

[CPUd]

FL doesn't matter if he can't win PA and OH.

 

[CPUd]

Also seems to have lost ground in FL since the last Q poll. Maybe it was due to low energy RNC/family reunion?

 

[Zippyjuan]

According to this video presentation at Business Insider he needs Florida, Pennsylvania, and all the states where Clinton currently leads by less than five points (As of August 7th).

http://www.businessinsider.com/elec...ump-clinton-battleground-state-polling-2016-8

 

[misterx]

According to this video presentation at Business Insider he needs Florida, Pennsylvania, and all the states where Clinton currently leads by less than five points (As of August 7th).

http://www.businessinsider.com/elec...ump-clinton-battleground-state-polling-2016-8

That's pretty much what we've known all along. The election comes down to FL, PA, and OH. I don't care what the polls say now, Trump will win NC, IA, and NV. Hillary will win WI, NH, VA, and CO. There is a slight possibility that Trump could win NH. If that happens, and Hillary wins PA then it goes to the House to decide. If I was Trump I would be pouring resources into NH. That may be his best chance considering how PA is polling lately.

 

[CPUd]

Trump can't win OH if he keeps attacking Kasich and the state GOP.

 

[misterx]

Trump can't win OH if he keeps attacking Kasich and the state GOP.

Considering how bad Trump has been doing lately, and Hillary is barely ahead in OH, I like his chances there after the debates.

 

[Zippyjuan]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541

 

[CPUd]

Pence Calls Pro-Kasich Ohio Official After Rift

MORAINE, Ohio -- Mike Pence personally called an Ohio state representative on Wednesday afternoon to clear up a rift between Trump's Ohio staff and the former Kasich delegate.

Ohio Rep. Niraj Antani of Moraine, the town just outside of Dayton where Pence hosted a town hall on Wednesday afternoon, tweeted last week that, while door knocking in his home district, "not one of them has been happy with Trump. All pro @JohnKasich."

Antani said he received a call from a Trump staffer in Ohio — reportedly at the request of Trump's state director on Tuesday night asking him to delete the tweet - he agreed.

"I did delete it," Antani told NBC News. "I didn't want to cause any trouble. I said look, 'I want to unify the party.' I was a Kasich supporter, but I do like Mike Pence a lot."

But when Antani arrived to Pence's town hall on Wednesday, the campaign, according to Antani, turned him down for VIP seating despite inviting him over the weekend as an elected official.

Minutes after Pence left the stage, Antani said he received a call from the GOP's vice presidential candidate.

"He said he just learned about the situation and apologized," Antani told NBC News. "He said Kasich is a friend of his, and he also wants to unify the party as well."

Aug 10 2016, 6:05 pm ET

http://www.nbcnews.com/card/pence-calls-pro-kasich-ohio-official-after-rift-n627721

 

[Zippyjuan]

Latest Quinnipiac poll:

According to the polls, in Florida Clinton is at 46% to Trump's 45%. She leads 49% to 45% in Ohio and 52% to 42% in Pennsylvania.

It's the first time the polling outfit has surveyed likely voters -- rather than registered voters or all Americans -- in the 2016 election cycle, so the results can't be compared to previous Quinnipiac surveys.

With Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein added to the race, the equation doesn't change much.

Florida is tied, with Clinton and Trump each at 43%, Johnson receiving 7% support and Stein at 3%. In Ohio, Clinton leads 44% to Trump's 42%, with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 3%. And in Pennsylvania, Clinton tops Trump 48% to 39%, with 7% going to Johnson and 3% to Stein.

The pollsters said both Clinton and Trump supporters are motivated by their negative feelings for the opposing party's candidates.

 

[RonPaulMall]

Trump can't win OH if he keeps attacking Kasich and the state GOP.

Doesn't really matter whether Kasich and Trump get along. Kasich is putting the full weight of his political machine towards getting out the GOP vote in November because he wants his boy Portman to win his Senate seat. So he's doing what Trump needs from him despite his hatred of Trump.

 

[CPUd]

Doesn't really matter whether Kasich and Trump get along. Kasich is putting the full weight of his political machine towards getting out the GOP vote in November because he wants his boy Portman to win his Senate seat. So he's doing what Trump needs from him despite his hatred of Trump.

They're not all going to vote for Trump if he keeps attacking other Republicans. Portman is polling 48, Trump is polling 38 in the same poll. Johnson is polling 12, do the math.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

They're not all going to vote for Trump if he keeps attacking other Republicans. Portman is polling 48, Trump is polling 38 in the same poll. Johnson is polling 12, do the math.

Kasich's defacto attack on Trump by not endorsing him is the main reason for the Ohio numbers, not Trump's attacks on establishment Republicans. The campaign's attacks are about his opposition to the bipartisan status quo, thus are baked into the cake at this point by his supporters and his opponents, and are a net vote gainer among independents or 'change' voters in terms of TURNOUT. The basic dynamic for the fall continues to be the energized vote based on actual behavior established in the primaries (compared to the previous election year), not projections based on polling that does not weigh that factor.

What tens of millions actually did out weighs what thousands polled only say they will do. The primary trend should be roughly 20% reflected in November. Thus in the election pro-Republican turnout will be up about 12-15%, based on the 60% increased turnout trend already demonstrated in the GOP primaries, while pro-Democratic turnout will be down 4-5% down due to the 20% decreased turnout in the Democratic primaries (and note that much of the Dem turnout came from pro-Sanders voters, not pro-Hillary voters). This translates into Trump edging out Hillary in most of the toss-up states, plus a couple of surprise pick-ups (possibly PA, MI et al states).

 

[CPUd]

Kasich's defacto attack on Trump by not endorsing him is the main reason for the Ohio numbers, not Trump's attacks on establishment Republicans. The campaign's attacks are about his opposition to the bipartisan status quo, thus are baked into the cake at this point by his supporters and his opponents, and are a net vote gainer among independents or 'change' voters in terms of TURNOUT. The basic dynamic for the fall continues to be the energized vote based on actual behavior established in the primaries compared to the previous election year, not projections based on polling that does not weigh that factor.

What tens of millions actually did out weighs what thousands polled only say they will do. In the election pro-Republican turnout will be up about 12-15% based on the 60% increased turnout trend already demonstrated in the GOP primaries, while pro-Democratic turnout will be down 4-5% down due to the 20% decreased turnout in the Democratic primaries (and note that much of the Dem turnout came from pro-Sanders voters, not pro-Hillary voters). This translates into Trump edging out Hillary in most of the toss-up states, plus a couple of surprise pick-ups (possibly PA, MI et al states).

Trump is attacking grassroots conservatives who refuse to support him because he's not a conservative, and he aligns with establishment GOP and neocons like Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan and John McCain:




GOP primary turnout was driven by the non-Trump vote. More people came out to vote against him than any other nominee in history:

Latino voters are especially enthusiastic to come out and vote against Trump:

Most of his voters won't be voting for him, but against Clinton:

 

[misterx]

lol Priebus was fighting Trump until he wrapped up the nomination. Ryan and McCain continue to fight him. Trump reluctantly endorsed them because he was plummeting in the polls.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

GOP primary turnout was driven by the non-Trump vote. More people came out to vote against him than any other nominee in history:

Latino voters are especially enthusiastic to come out and vote against Trump:

Most of his voters won't be voting for him, but against Clinton:

Trump got more GOP votes in the primary than any previous nominee, in spite of leadership opposition to the bitter end. That plus the anti-Hillary vote reinforces the point that the 'change' vote will be more energized to turnout than the 'status quo' vote for Hillary. Most of the Latino vote in the country will be canceled out as a factor, due to the overwhelming majority of Latinos being in states that are already firmly in the Democratic or Republican column regardless (CA, TX, NY, etc).

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

People... Literally ANYTHING can happen. That's the scary part.

 

[CPUd]

lol Priebus was fighting Trump until he wrapped up the nomination. Ryan and McCain continue to fight him. Trump reluctantly endorsed them because he was plummeting in the polls.

Priebus kept Ted Cruz off the nomination ballot in exchange for helping the RNC further centralize its power over the 2020 election. This is exactly what Trump would do if he got elected; he would cut backroom deals with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi so fast it will make your head spin.

RNC Rules Committee

 

[CPUd]

Trump got more GOP votes in the primary than any previous nominee, in spite of leadership opposition to the bitter end. That plus the anti-Hillary vote reinforces the point that the 'change' vote will be more energized to turnout than the 'status quo' vote for Hillary. Most of the Latino vote in the country will be canceled out as a factor, due to the overwhelming majority of Latinos being in states that are already firmly in the Democratic or Republican column regardless (CA, TX, NY, etc).

If the leadership wanted him out, they could have propped up Ted Cruz. They got the guy they wanted.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

If the leadership wanted him out, they could have propped up Ted Cruz. They got the guy they wanted.

That would have actually cracked up the Republican party faster than anything Trump is being accused of potentially doing. The legitimacy of the system had already taken enough of a high profile hit from the way Paul and Paul delegates had been ripped off in 2012. Robbing the presumptive nominee himself would have been theft in full daylight, so they had to back off.

Note the leadership couldn't have even done that in '64 with Goldwater, let alone now in the era of 24 hour news and Internet. So, the establishment can be beaten. Otherwise, are you saying that if Ron had managed to win the nomination, that it's only because the elite allowed it, and "got the guy they wanted?"