Last minute info on Tuesday's Hawaii caucus and Ron Paul

[DannydeGracia2]

wow.

Yeah but the game is different today. The other one was a state convention, this is a party run primary spread across 41 sites on multiple islands. No script can effect todays results. Not only that but Paul has registered poll watchers at all sites. There is no way this one can fail.

 

[Crotale]

Would be nice to win here going into the deep south, which isn't exactly our strongest territory.

Just think: GOTV, GOTV, GOTV and delegates, delegates, delegates.

 

[DannydeGracia2]

Would be nice to win here going into the deep south, which isn't exactly our strongest territory.

Just think: GOTV, GOTV, GOTV and delegates, delegates, delegates.

I already wrote about how to pull a win here, so they (and everyone else lol) has the tactics to win. But now it comes down to work!

 

[bunklocoempire]

Read what happened in 2008:

http://ronpaulromania.blogspot.com/2008/05/hawaii-republican-convention-was-lowest.html

Thanks for that and bump.

It is articles like this that I use with the NOBP tactic. When folks see how this movement has been treated, and how it has not gone away but grown, they tend to ponder a bit.

 

[sailingaway]

Danny is tweeting stuff here: https://twitter.com/#!/DannysKorner

 

[seawolf]

GOTV thru out every island!!!! Let's surprise the political pundits.......

 

[deputydon]

Ahhh good old Hawaii.

 

[DannydeGracia2]

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @DannysKorner and use #808caucus as your Twitter hashtag ... I'm monitoring the situation on the ground and I will be going to GOP HQ later on to report ....

 

[WD-NY]

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @DannysKorner and use #808caucus as your Twitter hashtag ... I'm monitoring the situation on the ground and I will be going to GOP HQ later on to report ....

Eh, what's the point if the guy is going to retweet bullshit like this (without following it up with a little snark)?

#Santorum to #Hawaii voters via Facebook "Your vote builds an even stronger voice for the proven consistent conservatism"#808caucus #tcot

 

[DannydeGracia2]

Because I am a journalist I have to report ALL not just one side ... I would have no credibility if I only tweeted stuff for Paul.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

from the hawaii GOP homepage it is 6pm-8pm? so that would mean we should know the results after 11pm (PST)... almost everyone on east coast would be alseep XD...

hopefully east coast wakes up to a surprise win?

 

[DannydeGracia2]

from the hawaii GOP homepage it is 6pm-8pm? so that would mean we should know the results after 11pm (PST)... almost everyone on east coast would be alseep XD...

hopefully east coast wakes up to a surprise win?

Possibly. Depends entirely on how many people leave work early enough to vote and actually decide to vote (the caucus is during weekday rush hour and Honolulu, where the population works has traffic that is dense). I expect Paul to do better in the urban parts of Oahu.

 

[PolicyReader]

didn't 538 give us decent odds to win this?

Nate Silver (over at 538) projects Paul in 2nd behind Romney by 8%
I won't go into all the methods he used and the implications (it's not a bad read tho )
I'll just say that outside of what our own RPF members in Hawaii have clued us in on it's one of the most encouraging things I've read.
Remember % of votes is essentially 'zero sum' so shifting 8% with the conditions in Hawaii on the ground is quite doable. (also note that the projection of Mr. Silvers that I 'am referencing was the least favorable to Paul out of the three he possibilities he presented)

As has been said it's all about ground game now, it's Get Out The Vote and getting people to the polls.
If you know anyone in HI whom you have some pull with get them out to vote for Paul, party need not matter

 

[DannydeGracia2]

Nate Silver (over at 538) projects Paul in 2nd behind Romney by 8%
I won't go into all the methods he used and the implications (it's not a bad read tho )
I'll just say that outside of what our own RPF members in Hawaii have clued us in on it's one of the most encouraging things I've read.
Remember % of votes is essentially 'zero sum' so shifting 8% with the conditions in Hawaii on the ground is quite doable. (also note that the projection of Mr. Silvers that I 'am referencing was the least favorable to Paul out of the three he possibilities he presented)

As has been said it's all about ground game now, it's Get Out The Vote and getting people to the polls.
If you know anyone in HI whom you have some pull with get them out to vote for Paul, party need not matter

Well the Bar Owners of Hawaii endorsed Ron Paul, so that should get some play for him.

 

[PolicyReader]

Well the Bar Owners of Hawaii endorsed Ron Paul, so that should get some play for him.

Indeed endorsements like that are certainly nice, I must admit I have trouble knowing how much weight to give any of them in each instance. State to state cultural variances and all. (Which is part of why I'm so grateful for your take and that of others on the ground there )

For those who didn't see the write up, here's the endorsement

 

[GregVernon]

I spoke to the Hawaii GOP chairman, the polls will close at 8pm HST (+6 EST so 2am EST?) but from what I understand they are going to try to be very quick about it. Besides this is not a big state. Obama had his caucus last week and only 1.3k voted in a heavy Democrat state so I imagine there won't be too many Republican votes to have to sit through to know who won tomorrow.

According to facebook, there are only a few thousand or so Conservative Hawaiians available for ad targeting. Given most of the turnouts... maybe a handful of votes at best.

On the plus side, 2,000 of those Hawaiians saw my ads 11.2 times, so, maybe we'll get lucky.

 

[DannydeGracia2]

According to facebook, there are only a few thousand or so Conservative Hawaiians available for ad targeting. Given most of the turnouts... maybe a handful of votes at best.

On the plus side, 2,000 of those Hawaiians saw my ads 11.2 times, so, maybe we'll get lucky.

11.2k?

 

[GregVernon]

11.2k?

11.2 times each, for roughly 30,600 impressions...

 

[DannydeGracia2]

11.2 times each, for roughly 30,600 impressions...

Impressive!

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

There are reps on the 4 largest Islands organizing rides. I've set up two drivers on Kaua'i...

GOTV!!!

Once pau voting, jump into the cars and go holoholo around the area, beachparks/whatevas, "Hey Braddah/Sistah! You like da kine Ron Paul? Shootz! Well voting is RIGHT NOW! Jump in, I'll get you back in two shakes" ​

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