Las Vegas Review Journal and 8NewsNow Nevada Poll

[SCOTUSman]

Las Review Journal poll was 12/20 (in parentheses)

Mitt Romney 45% (33) +12
Newt Gingrich 25% (29) -4
Rick Santorum 11% (3) +8
Ron Paul 9% (13) -4
Don't know 10%

Romney gets 86% of Mormon vote in the poll. Santorum 4%. Newt 2%. Paul 1%.

The statewide telephone poll by the Cannon Survey Center at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas questioned 426 Republicans who said they plan to participate in the caucuses. The pollster called both land lines and cellphones Friday through Tuesday, before Romney won the Florida primary in a nasty battle with Gingrich. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.75 percentage points.

Romney wins support from 45 percent of Nevada Republicans who said they plan to participate in the caucuses, the survey commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow said.

Newt Gingrich is Romney's closest threat with 25 percent backing, thanks in large part to Republicans who say they "strongly support" the tea party movement.

Rick Santorum edges out Ron Paul, 11 percent to 9 percent, although the Texas congressman often outperforms polls by turning out his loyal backers in caucus contests, where party members pick their favorites. Paul is deeply organized here. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, is not well-known in Nevada and only recently hired staff and opened an office to compete here.

Also:

The Paul campaign sounded just as confident, saying the congressman could win Nevada, especially if turnout is 60,000 or below. In 2008, a total of 44,000 Republicans caucused, with Romney winning 22,649 and Paul picking up 6,087. Both have gained many more supporters since.

"If turnout is higher than 65,000 to 70,000, then more Romney people and more supporters of other candidates are coming up, then we might have some trouble," said Carl Bunce, the Nevada chairman of the Paul campaign. "But we have the numbers to win. We just have to turn them out."

Bunce dismissed the poll results, saying most Paul supporter refuse to participate or lie in surveys because of a bad experience in Nevada four years ago. He said Sen. John McCain's campaign did robocalls to identify Paul supporters and then sidelined them at the state party convention. McCain won the GOP nomination, but the state GOP convention was shut down before delegates could be counted and after Paul supporters tried to take over the meeting from the floor.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/romney-poised-to-roll-poll-shows-138551749.html

 

[Drex]

Santorum got Mormon vote over RP? Crazy, how many people were polled 100?

 

[SCOTUSman]

http://www.lvrj.com/news/romney-poised-to-roll-poll-shows-138551749.html Here is the link. Forgot to add it.

According to the article Mormons only make up 7% of the population in Nevada, but in 2008 they made up a quarter of the GOP caucus goers. So, they go and caucus in HUGE numbers. They probably have the best voter turnout for a caucus of any group...anywhere.

 

[SCOTUSman]

I have heard that people (RP supporters) have been advised to not relay support over the phone to unknown people about their support for Paul in Nevada.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Likely voters is the key. A statewide telephone survey of anyone and their brother is meaningless.

 

[The_Ruffneck]

I have heard that people (RP supporters) have been advised to not relay support over the phone to unknown people about their support for Paul in Nevada.

lol keep deluding yourself , just like people did back in 08
face it , these numbers are a wake up call - people need to work harder on the ground in Nevada and make sure people get out to vote , double your efforts everyone!

 

[SCOTUSman]

lol keep deluding yourself , just like people did back in 08
face it , these numbers are a wake up call - people need to work harder on the ground in Nevada and make sure people get out to vote , double your efforts everyone!

Hardly deluded...Mitt will win with a majority. Paul performed twice as well as his poll numbers in 2008 in Nevada. Hard to poll (as non iowa cacus states are hard to do) and the actions of the state gop in 2008 have an effect on people. Our state chairs says as much. We can get second with 20% support or more. We won't win but to say I'm deluded is a joke.

 

[40oz]

I have heard that people (RP supporters) have been advised to not relay support over the phone to unknown people about their support for Paul in Nevada.

I heard that too, in the chat room.

 

[Badger Paul]

Hmmm...interesting. Hide one's numbers and surprise in strength.

Anyway, we'll see on Saturday. But Bunce is right. The lower the turnout, the better it is for us.

 

[da32130]

lol keep deluding yourself , just like people did back in 08
face it , these numbers are a wake up call - people need to work harder on the ground in Nevada and make sure people get out to vote , double your efforts everyone!

Don't worry about the poll numbers. If we do well in Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and Colorado it won't be because of high poll numbers compared with other states. It will be because of turnout.

Here is the impact of turnout in 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3% (7% in 2012)
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary pre Feb 10th in 2008 was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference in the poorly attended caucuses.


Also, Nevada and Iowa are similar in size. We got 26k in Iowa this time. Romney won Nevada with 22k in 2008. Romney got 30k in Iowa both times.

 

[A. Havnes]

If Dr. Paul could only win a state, his numbers everywhere would go up! People don't want to vote for him right now because he hasn't won a single state yet.

 

[Highstreet]

"Bunce dismissed the poll results, saying most Paul supporter refuse to participate or lie in surveys because of a bad experience in Nevada four years ago. He said Sen. John McCain's campaign did robocalls to identify Paul supporters and then sidelined them at the state party convention. McCain won the GOP nomination, but the state GOP convention was shut down before delegates could be counted and after Paul supporters tried to take over the meeting from the floor."

^^this! And we should be careful of this in other states as well.

 

[JuicyG]

If Dr. Paul could only win a state, his numbers everywhere would go up! People don't want to vote for him right now because he hasn't won a single state yet.

...and the 4th showing in last two states didn`t help much also. Both Romney and Gingrich come with big momentum and it shows. Campaign should make a huge push to win a state to swing momentum away in Paul`s favor.

 

[Ssd]

If we don't come in second in Nevada and/or win Maine, I think our campaign at that point will be focused just on getting enough numbers to the GOP convention where Paul will ask to have a speech. I still think its wise for Paul to run a 3rd party campaign (AmericansElect?) with Jesse Ventura as his running mate. They won't win that either but its nice for Paul to go out with a bang. Rand won't be happy but he panders too much to neoconservatives. It as if Rand is a mix between a Ron Paul and Sean Hannity with non-answers for everything.

 

[JuicyG]

If we don't come in second in Nevada and/or win Maine, I think our campaign at that point will be focused just on getting enough numbers to the GOP convention where Paul will ask to have a speech. I still think its wise for Paul to run a 3rd party campaign (AmericansElect?) with Jesse Ventura as his running mate. They won't win that either but its nice for Paul to go out with a bang. Rand won't be happy but he panders too much to neoconservatives. It as if Rand is a mix between a Ron Paul and Sean Hannity with non-answers for everything.

Should he decide to go that route, it might be the beginning of a real 3d party alternative to GOP and Democrats. Could build into a bigger momentum for next election cycle.

 

[da32130]

...and the 4th showing in last two states didn`t help much also. Both Romney and Gingrich come with big momentum and it shows. Campaign should make a huge push to win a state to swing momentum away in Paul`s favor.

Give it a break. Newt finished last among current candidates in Iowa and NH before he won SC. Anything can happen.

As if we went into Nevada with momentum in 2008. We've shown we can do well in caucuses in Iowa and we also finished 2nd in NH.

The campaign is trying to win these four caucus states. Phone from home had been calling Nevada for months. And Paul is the only one who has visited Maine so far (right next to a state he finished 2nd place in).

 

[RonPaul101.com]

...and the 4th showing in last two states didn`t help much also. Both Romney and Gingrich come with big momentum and it shows. Campaign should make a huge push to win a state to swing momentum away in Paul`s favor.

EXACTLY THIS. I said it before and will say it again here in agreement - The campaign would be better off throwing all they have at one state to lock it down rather than split up advertising dollars to many states and just doing okay, or worse.

For example, Wahsington State should get more money and organization thrown at it than any of the other states, save for Iowa. Washington is THE lone contest right before Super Tuesday; what better contest to win than right before Super Tuesday? Winning Washington is better than running ads in 10 other states the following week and it's much more effective.

 

[tennman]

I have heard that people (RP supporters) have been advised to not relay support over the phone to unknown people about their support for Paul in Nevada.

What would be the point of that?

 

[da32130]

EXACTLY THIS. I said it before and will say it again here in agreement - The campaign would be better off throwing all they have at one state to lock it down rather than split up advertising dollars to many states and just doing okay, or worse.

For example, Wahsington State should get more money and organization thrown at it than any of the other states, save for Iowa. Washington is THE lone contest right before Super Tuesday; what better contest to win than right before Super Tuesday? Winning Washington is better than running ads in 10 other states the following week and it's much more effective.

NOT

If we put everything in Washington Romney can spend 15 million there and finish us.

Should we ignore Maine? Right next to a place we got 2nd place in a primary.

People are already down about FL and SC. Should we give up all momentum and focus on 1 state?

I'm sure after the current 4 caucuses Washington becomes the next big focus. But should we completely ignore the caucus states a few days later in Alaska, etc.?

We need to win more than one state. We have got a handful of opportunities to break through.

 

[Liberty74]

Sorry guys but if Ron is polling a weak 10% or so in NV, it's not looking good to rack up any delegates. We can play what ifs all day long for every state, reality is reality. Everyone on RPF was saying Ron could win or at least come in second because of last time. Zero evidence of such. Romney has got this thing rapped up after FL. No polling data suggest otherwise. A major unforeseen event would have to happen to change that. To run a campaign on such is foolish. Truly disappointed in the campaign and the American voters.

Seriously, it's time to start thinking Independent run.