Just One Hour For Ron Paul To Win Iowa, New Hampshire, and then the nomination

[da32130]

Ron Paul has the ability to win this through the phone from home program. We have enough voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, we just have to contact them and get them to caucus/vote.

http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

Ron Paul Facebook likes: 576,703

If everyone who liked Ron Paul on facebook spent 1 hour each month (November, December) calling, and only conducted 1 poll in that time, we would have enough to reach every voter in New Hampshire and enough voters in Iowa to win.

Ron Paul donors: 100K

If every donor spent 1 hour a month and got 5 polls done we could do it.

Ron Paul Facebook talk: 37,966
Ron Paul Forum Members: 32,999

If everyone talking about Ron Paul, or all current forum members, spent one hour a week calling and got 4 polls done we could do the same.

Ron Paul Forums users in the past 24 hours: 13576

Or if just current forum users in the past 24 hours spend 1 hour a week and got 6 polls done we could do it.

Ron Paul Forums user members in the past 24 hours: 1350
4% of Ron Paul Forum members: 1320

Or if just the members who have used the Forum in the past 24 hours, or 4% of total members, spent 2 hours a day and got 6 polls done an hour we could do it.

Or if just 600 Ron Paul supporters (12 people per state) spent 5 hours a day and got 6 polls done an hour we could do it.

Victory is there to be had.

http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

answers a lot of questions people have about it (much easier than you might think):
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?327204-What-would-it-take-for-YOU-to

Here are the details:

New Hampshire population 1.325 million.
Iowa Population 3.005 million

voters are about 80% of population
New Hampshire population 1.06 million.
Iowa Population 2.404 million

Anyone in Iowa can Caucus.
Only Republicans and Independents can vote in New Hampshire.

So out of the pool of Republicans and Independents in each state you have about 1.6 million in Iowa and 706k in New Hampshire.

Paul is currently polling around 11% in both states.

A complete turnout would give us 176k Iowa voters for Ron Paul and 77.66k New Hampshire voters.

It only would have taken 41k caucus goers to beat Huckabee in 2008 in Iowa. Only 31k to beat Romney. So about 373k voters contacted could do it.

Winning Iowa would give us a jump in New Hampshire and 7 days to take advantage of it by calling.

However, even now, 78k votes in New Hampshire would have beaten Romney's 76k in 2008 and comes close to McCain's 89k. If we double in the polls after Iowa we could have 156k and easily win.

Iowa polling 2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...owa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

New Hampshire polling 2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Iowa Results 2008
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

New Hampshire Results 2008
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH

More background info on how we win:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?328197-How-Ron-Paul-Wins

http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

 

[harikaried]

Needs more links! http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

 

[da32130]

Needs more links! http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

Whoops. I fixed it.

 

[jbuttell]

it feels like all we have is an hour left until Iowa comes and goes, and that's the urgency we should all feel. Just imagine the day after Iowa. Where do you want to be?

 

[Emptyeternity]

BUMP

 

[centure7]

I've been posting a daily poll asking what people have done. If the event numbers on the daily poll get to 500 on average, then I'll believe we will win. At this point we do have the numbers to win, but will people follow through? I hope so.

 

[Steve-in-NY]

Keep calling for the win!

 

[thehighwaymanq]

it feels like all we have is an hour left until Iowa comes and goes, and that's the urgency we should all feel. Just imagine the day after Iowa. Where do you want to be?

I think this is it right here. Put yourself in the position of watching the coverage of Iowa that night and Ron gets second. Only you will know in your heart you had time to call and didn't.

 

[da32130]

I've been posting a daily poll asking what people have done. If the event numbers on the daily poll get to 500 on average, then I'll believe we will win. At this point we do have the numbers to win, but will people follow through? I hope so.

All we can do is keep trying to build the numbers up. Having a group of callers even after Iowa will give the campaign the flexibility to call other caucus states and get turnout up.

Right now I don't think people realize how effective, easy, and crucial this is.

 

[harikaried]

Have people been able to call Iowa through Phone From Home? I hear some people are able to call Nevada in addition to New Hampshire?

 

[da32130]

Have people been able to call Iowa through Phone From Home? I hear some people are able to call Nevada in addition to New Hampshire?

I've heard some people have been able to call Iowa. Also, if the general grassroots calls NH the official compaign can focus on Iowa.

Of course there is always the grassroots based Iowa calling:
http://rp2012.org

 

[Steve-in-NY]

General election stats, 2008
NH general: 316,534 R
IA general: 682,379 R
-------------------------
998,913 (R)

These calls could be done in a less than a week (5 days) if 10,000 people made just 20 calls a day.
10,000 people is just ¼ of the people that donated to the blackthisout moneybomb alone.

Thats right. A work week. 2 entire states called.
There would probably be some extra as people need callbacks, etc.
Figure 5 more days.

So in 10 days we could exhaust IA and NH, ensuring enough time for a get out the vote list for the maximum impact as well as follow ups and mailings and such to undecideds or Paul and 2nd choices.

Thats amazing, but lets be real - we dont have 10,000 people on the phones.

Realistically we have probably 1000, but to our benefit we also have many people making way more than 20 calls a day but if I had to wager a guess Id say we are probably presently making an average of 20 calls a day with those 1000.

20,000 calls a day.
Thats 50 days.
WAY too close for comfort, and not enough time to effeciently follow up or target potentials.

You will note that I am not including what has already been done. This is because some people are calling other states already, such as Nevada.

What I would love to see is 10,000 supporters getting involved in this call from home program.
Heres why:

1. We identify our support base to get out the vote.

2. We can bypass the media and target people on the fence or thinking about Paul as a #2 choice.

3. We can use our broad national grassroots base to target key specific states. (IA, NH, NV, SC)

4. We can force the other campaigns to burn through cash/resources trying to accomplish the same thing.

5. We may be able to identify more volunteers in this manner as well, hopefully causing a snowball effect.

If we have a well-oiled phone banking army we can literally take the organization that some in the media have even commented on as a reason Paul may do well in IA in recent weeks and be able to apply that on a national level. Let that sink in for a minute.

If a phone call reminder to vote for all identified Paul supporters increases the percentage of people that hit the polls by only 10%, that could be the difference. If targeted mailings or follow ups have just a 1% conversion rate, we could be adding hundreds of thousands of voters nationally to Pauls camp, and if only 10% of those actually vote in their caucuses or primaries, we are still looking at tens of thousands of votes, which again could be the difference.

If we can get this rolling on an epic scale like Im suggesting in the above, as Pauls organisation starts to show during the elections, people are going to drop out as they wont have the organization or money to compete.
This means more face time for Paul.
This means more cross over (soft) supporters.
This means momentum.

That list is the forumula to win elections.

In closing/TLDR:
Get involved in the call from home NOW. It is likely our best weapon and we are fools if we dont use it.

 

[harikaried]

Get involved in the call from home NOW. It is likely our best weapon and we are fools if we dont use it.

Just to be clear, we're helping with the first step of canvassing -- identifying the preferences of registered voters. We need to figure out what these voters want in a candidate and get them to vote for Ron Paul.

 

[da32130]

General election stats, 2008
NH general: 316,534 R
IA general: 682,379 R
-------------------------
998,913 (R)

These calls could be done in a less than a week (5 days) if 10,000 people made just 20 calls a day.
10,000 people is just ¼ of the people that donated to the blackthisout moneybomb alone.

Thats right. A work week. 2 entire states called.
There would probably be some extra as people need callbacks, etc.
Figure 5 more days.

So in 10 days we could exhaust IA and NH, ensuring enough time for a get out the vote list for the maximum impact as well as follow ups and mailings and such to undecideds or Paul and 2nd choices.

Just a couple points:
1) To get 1 voter polled you need 10 calls. So your estimate could be off by 10x.
2) In Iowa we only need half of the republicans called, but in New Hampshire we need Republicans and Independents called to pull the numbers to win.
So Iowa 340k and NH 616k (of course using your strategy and getting 80k caucus votes in Iowa and doubling Romney may also do the same thing as calling New Hampshire)

Otherwise, good stuff.

 

[Steve-in-NY]

Just a couple points:
1) To get 1 voter polled you need 10 calls. So your estimate could be off by 10x.
2) In Iowa we only need half of the republicans called, but in New Hampshire we need Republicans and Independents called to pull the numbers to win.
So Iowa 340k and NH 616k (of course using your strategy and getting 80k caucus votes in Iowa and doubling Romney may also do the same thing as calling New Hampshire)

True... which only emphasizes the urgency.

 

[vechorik]

I signed up for the "call from home" program weeks ago. I have a free phone at home and can call any state. I haven't been contacted -- not sure what to do next?

 

[harikaried]

I signed up for the "call from home" program weeks ago. I have a free phone at home and can call any state. I haven't been contacted -- not sure what to do next?

Just sign up at http://phone.ronpaul2012.com and you should be able to start calling immediately after setup.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

........

 

[harikaried]

2) In Iowa we only need half of the republicans called, but in New Hampshire we need Republicans and Independents called to pull the numbers to win.

I believe non-party voters are also being called in Iowa. Voters can change to Republican on the day of the caucus.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

Great idea, I will work on it