James Turk - “Silver Will Hit New Highs in a Matter of Weeks”

[Michael P]

Technical Analysis can be a powerful tool when used with a proper macroeconomic base. The issues with the Fed and Bernanke are fundamental on a macro level.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Nah, not at all. Markets move in complete random directions. Why the market is up today but will be down tomorrow has nothing to do with really much of anything. In the short term, nobody can predict where prices are going for anything. In the long term, prices move according to their fundamentals. So where exactly is the "self fulfilling prophecy" when it's obvious no one knows where prices are going from 10:33 AM to 10:34 AM, or from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM, or from Monday to Tuesday, or from Monday to Friday, or from the 1st of the month to the 31st of the month, yet fundamentals dictate from 2000-2011?

It's not a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it were, people could play off the levels you're talking about and we could all be rich very, very fast. The truth is, the "prophets" (aka day traders) lose more times than they win--their losses are just limited because they bail out at the first sign of trouble and they hedge their bets. Their goal is to lose 2% 5 times so long as they can win 20% one time. So if they win 1 out of 6 times, they're successful.

If TA had any credibility, the people playing the game would win with better odds than rolling a die.

You reduced the time-frame to absurdity. No one claims to know minute to minute moves. And who said anything about day traders? You are attempting to change the discussion. Market psychology exists. Deny it all you like.

 

[YumYum]

You reduced the time-frame to absurdity. No one claims to know minute to minute moves. And who said anything about day traders? You are attempting to change the discussion. Market psychology exists. Deny it all you like.

gonegolfin' is a successful day trader, so is lepard. I know a guy who is a Libertarian in New Jersey, who day trades in gold, and he uses candles and crystals, along with technical charts, and he has incredible success.

 

[rp4prez]

I´m not buying before the coming margin hike (effective after tonights closing bell) is priced in. I.e. i´m waiting until tommorow.

How do you guys find out about all this stuff?

 

[swissaustrian]

How do you guys find out about all this stuff?

www.zerohedge.com

Also great for precious metals investors:
www.gata.org
www.inflation.us
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/

 

[pmbug]

...
Also great for precious metals investors:
...

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

 

[rp4prez]

I´m not buying before the coming margin hike (effective after tonights closing bell) is priced in. I.e. i´m waiting until tommorow.

Got another question. Wouldn't the margin hike make the buy rate higher? So why wait?

 

[Dr.3D]

Got another question. Wouldn't the margin hike make the buy rate higher? So why wait?

I guess that would depend on if you are planning on buying physical.

 

[swissaustrian]

Right now my decision to wait was wrong anyway, but we will see what happens tomorrow. Volatility is extremely right now.
But generally speaking: Hiking margins increases the cost of futures trading. Therefore an incentive is created to get rid of a position. This already had the effect that the total ammount of contracts (so called "open interest": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_interest ) declined. Margin hikes hit small traders harder because they have less capital. The big players in the silver market are net short (= they bet on falling prices), so a margin hike should impact upside price momentum because the smaller traders are forced out. Additionally we have seen several commodity "hedge" funds suffering badly from last weeks sell-off. Some of them did´nt manage their risk properly. I´m not sure if they will just pile in again.

 

[Michael P]

How do you guys find out about all this stuff?

Another good one in addition the the above mentioned: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/