I've realized why Rand is treading water

[LibertyEagle]

He did better than 1 percent in the polls like Rand is doing. So many Rand better follow his father's example before his support is at zero percent, don't ya think?

No, actually. Ron lost badly. So no, Rand doesn't need to emulate that.

 

[nayjevin]

I believe I have realized why Rand is seemingly going nowhere. A lot of this has to do with the rise of Trump.

Going nowhere is not accurate. Don't watch the polls to determine success. You must not follow the campaign and student groups on Twitter, or you'd have a much more positive view of the campaign.

Rand is viewed as the Constitution candidate, the civil liberties candidate, the outreach candidate, etc.

I wish he were. I don't know that Joe Republican can put that fine a point on it right now.

But I think while people agree with him on the principles, they are too abstract to relate to.

I think that may be true, but it is the nature of the game. It requires critical thinking to accept truth.

He has got to bring it back down to the real world and focus on what is upsetting people.

From a marketing standpoint, to get numbers now and fast, that may be true. But he does not have the bully pulpit. The strategy at this point seems to be slow and steady wins the race. Increase the numbers of people who take a closer look at him - people who have initiative, people who are thinkers - people who can be passionate. The superficial low information masses will not stay with him necessarily if he wins them over now anyway. The people who have time and ability and initiative to study him might.

There is a reason his tax plan got such a good reception. He needs to continue taking on the IRS, but he needs to branch out and attack the other parts of government. Most importantly, I think, he really needs to go after the Federal Reserve and relate it to income stagnation. That also might help wake up the Ron Paul supporters. What happened to us dominating the internet? Everyone went back into their caves.

There are good things happening all over the internet, the 2% are spread out now, because the internet is much bigger now. But organization on the ground is much, much better. The biggest obstacle is one that Rand can't overcome. Republican party is even more gross to people after McCain/Romney than it was after GWB. But no matter. Half the 2% is gone, some will hop on later, but the unpolled youth have more than made up for that shortfall. Campuses campuses campuses.

Also, Trump is showing the backlash against political correctness. Ted Cruz got a ton of support when he called Mitch McConnell a liar.

These are short-term instant gratification that create soft support. Rand's campaign is about hard support and hitting at the right time. Slow and steady wins the race.

As I have said before, I think Rand needs to seriously consider cutting ties with McConnell, who keeps breaking campaign promises, and sabotaging conservatives. At this point, he needs to call out McConnell and Boehner, and explain that his efforts to work with them have failed. Everyone loves a rebel. Or, he could continue playing nice and carve out a nice long Senate career but not be president. Rand needs to show he is willing to fight the real problem, not grandstand.

I don't agree with this, his ties with McConnell are not high profile nor do they run deep. People like to hear anyone calling anyone else a liar, and when it's a politician they know it's probably true. I don't think it is much more than that.

Continuing what he is doing is not going to work. He has got to tap into what propels candidates to the top while also showing he is different. If he only focuses on being different, he will be left to the side like a potted plant.

I agree, except that it is not the right time to do it. He should keep doing what he is doing for a long time. There will be a time to drop the big ones. Now is the time when punks drop the big ones, and fizzle long before the race is over.

Edit-Take a look at his social media too. Woefully under performing. Why? It's too canned. It is too professional. There is no doubt he hired the best people to make the coolest things, but that isn't connected. Rand needs to just act like Trump and Sanders. Either talk directly to people in text, or with a picture, and make it sound like you are really talking.

I don't think it is underperforming. I think it's going well. It seems canned to me too - but we are not what makes elections. Do you wonder how some commercials on TV could possibly convince people to buy the product? Well you are in the minority. Most people don't give it a second thought.

The problem is that he is running a campaign above the public's comprehension level as well as emphasizing issues that aren't exactly first hand relatable. If he can draw them in with some populist positions, maybe they'll listen and he can expand from there. Trump feels the angst of the common man and speaks their language in a very confident tone. Rand could learn from him.

The part of the public whose comprehension level is so low that Rand's campaign eludes it is not the part of the public he should be going after. That is the part of the public that can be lost just as soon as they are gained. Those who reach a conclusion to support him on more reasonable, rather than superficial, reasons, become hard support.

I agree, Rand is too canned and perhaps some people can see through it.

Doesn't mean Rand is wrong in what he's doing, its just not connecting enough when there are "others" doing a better job at connecting (albeit to the lowest levels of the American electorate). It also doesn't mean Rand needs to reach out to those low information voters that love Trump because most of those people won't even bother to show up to vote.

Its like having a quality show on TV and you're show is being outwatched by the WWE and reality shows.

Yup. But 'not connecting enough' can only be an opinion based upon television and poll watching. He is connecting alot. Look at the endorsement map on his website. Hard support.

The first few states are purely GOTV, thats what it all comes down to. The polls really are useless right now, even if Rand is at the top, they're still useless. What matters is the buildup to Iowa and what happens in Iowa and NH.

Yup. And several other early states, the landscape is different than past elections.

The issue is not the positions, but the framework. Rand was making headway and getting regular coverage with the "news bombs" he was dropping two months ago, until Trump got in and became THE news bomb. Now the Donald is viewed as the trouble maker, the anti-establishment alternative. etc. What Rand should do is, while trying to stay true to himself, position himself as the articulate version of Trump, adopt the same frameworks as Trump (alarmed over illegal immigration, anti-PC, gadfly challenging the GOP leadership etc), while rebuking both Trump's manners and his critics' attacks on him. If Trump fails or pulls out, Rand can be there to get his supporters, because he triangulated beforehand.

I like this.

If Rand wants more financial support from Californians, he should take a strong stand on Bitcoin

Strong stand on Bitcoin, I'm not sure. It takes a lot of explaining for those who aren't already on board. I'm curious and wish I knew campaign's thinking on this.

He is not the firebrand that he himself was when he won a US Senate Seat either. And say what you want about Ron, at no point in his campaign was he ever doing this poorly.

You must be obsessed with polls and unaware of the effect of having 17 people in the race (or is it more than that now). He's not doing poorly. Polls are worthless as they do not predict election results, especially at this stage. They do not reflect organization. They do not reflect what it takes to win an election. And they are often published for propagandist reasons anyway.

He did better than 1 percent in the polls like Rand is doing. So many Rand better follow his father's example before his support is at zero percent, don't ya think?

4.2% margin of error in that poll. Statistically a candidate in a race of 17 people should be at about 6%. He's around 4 probably among all humans, if we look at as many polls as we can. But polls do not do a good job of gauging all humans, and not all humans vote.

People like to answer Trump right now. There is not much incentive for people other than us to answer Rand. That has little bearing on what is going to happen come voting time.