Is the Bitcoin Price a Manifestation of the CRACK-UP BOOM?

[alsis8xmy]

With the price of BTC on a steady exponential increase. Is this a manifestation of Mises's crack-up boom in the one true free market not medicated by the FED? I say yes, since the demand for bitcoin seems to mirror the loss of trust in fiat. If this is the case, then it would explain the price action as people are looking to trade out of fiat into sound money. I suspect the Gold and Silver price are not moving because of the bloated short positions in those markets being used to supress the true price.

https://mises.org/daily/4016

 

[swissaustrian]

A crack-up boom is the rush into real assets in times of economic calamity and monetary collapse. It's generally associated with stocks.
I don't consider BTC a real asset.
Regarding the short positions in gold/silver: it is NOT tptb/bullion banks shorting the heck out of the market right now, it's hedge funds: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/open...s-watch-gold-silver-679/index3.html#post20179
If we had a real crack-up boom, hedge funds would be closing these shorts.

 

[alsis8xmy]

I consider BTC a real asset, as I think most buyers of BTC do. I don't think anyone knows for sure who the shorts are, are they Hedge funds, primary dealers etc? Plus, this is the only option for folks who want to trade out of fiat into an unmanipulated asset that can't be confiscated by gov't. As we saw with the recent Gold confiscation at the Swiss border, the real limitations and risk of Gold ownership are becoming more apparent.

 

[swissaustrian]

I consider BTC a real asset, as I think most buyers of BTC do. I don't think anyone knows for sure who the shorts are, are they Hedge funds, primary dealers etc?

www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/open-interest-futures-options-watch-gold-silver-679/index3.html#post20179
The CFTC publishes commitments of traders (COT) by categories. Click the link above, it's clearly the hedge fund crowd which is driving pms right now.

Plus, this is the only option for folks who want to trade out of fiat into an unmanipulated asset that can't be confiscated by gov't. As we saw with the recent Gold confiscation at the Swiss border, the real limitations and risk of Gold ownership are becoming more apparent.

Companies like Goldmoney offer swapping pm of storage over borders without physical transport

 

[alsis8xmy]

Companies like Goldmoney offer swapping pm of storage over borders without physical transport

Which has a counterparty risk in that you have to trust a company like Gold Money. Bitcoin requires no third party trust to move value from A to B anywhere on the planet. This is a huge part of the value proposition for BTC.

 

[swissaustrian]

Which has a counterparty risk in that you have to trust a company like Gold Money. Bitcoin requires no third party trust to move value from A to B anywhere on the planet. This is a huge part of the value proposition for BTC.

Bitcoin requires a web provider (third party) to use it in the first place.

 

[alsis8xmy]

Bitcoin requires a web provider (third party) to use it in the first place.

I think you mean third parties in that this risk would be spread across the entirety of the internet, meaning the entire internet would have to go dark for you to lose your BTC. If you're current way of accessing the internet is lost, you would only lose the ability to spend your BTC until you reconnected to the internet via another provider like you're cell phone vs cable modem vs work network connection. Other folks still connected would still be able to send you money.


Additionally:
If the internet goes completely dark, the BTC transaction ledger (block chain) is still stored on disk by thousands of computers globally. When the internet comes back, the ledger will simply pick up where it left off.

 

[swissaustrian]

When the internet goes dark in it's entirety, we're gonna have an "updated" version once it comes back on.
The UN has been planning for mandatory internet IDs for a long time, so is the Obama admin: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20054342-281.html . They can then either tax your BTC transactions or outlaw them completely using the money laundering excuse.
When the music stops, the chairs won't be in front of computers...

 

[amonasro]

The UN has been planning for mandatory internet IDs for a long time, so is the Obama admin: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20054342-281.html . They can then either tax your BTC transactions or outlaw them completely using the money laundering excuse.

Unfortunately they are a little late to the game.

 

[Seraphim]

TBH people being sick of the status quo is going critical mass and rather rapidly. Bitcoin offers an opportunity for monetary freedom. Ditto gold/silver.

These price movements are not sustainable (the price itself might be, but how fast it's going up is not), but Bitcoin offers a slice of freedom. Bitcoin will become more and more valuable as it becomes known, trusted and accepted.

 

[amonasro]

Stories like this keep me optimistic.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...oin-sales-with-explosive-52m-march-2013-04-02

ATLANTA, Apr 02, 2013 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- BitPay Inc., the world's leading payment processor for bitcoin, announces it has processed over $5.2 million in bitcoin transactions for its merchants during the month of March, with over 5,100 completed invoices during the month. The pace accelerated with over $3 million in transactions during the final 8 days. This eCommerce activity from merchants selling computers, consumer electronics, precious metals, and even government services has likely eclipsed the illicit activity widely estimated from sites like Silk Road.

BitPay has also approved over 1,300 new merchant applications during the month of March, bringing their total number of approved merchants to over 4,500. The explosive growth in BitPay's business comes after February's payment processing volume of $687,000 in transactions with 2,300 completed invoices.

 

[Romulus]

its a good day to buy, I still say.

 

[kpitcher]

its a good day to buy, I still say.

I assume the continued rise in bitcoins is partly related to portugal austerity measures failed which means they're back in serious trouble making the Euro look scary. Also the Yen took a nosedive. More "real" money is having issues and the free market bitcoin is standing up pretty well. This whole free market not control by corporate interests is starting to catch on.

 

[roho76]

I like the idea of bitcoin. With that being said, no Internet, no bitcoin; no electricity, no bitcoin; no form of communication above that of smoke signals, no bitcoin. Two things the government already controls or is about to control, electricity and Internet, and they don't even really need to control the Internet if they control electricity. I'm pretty sure they already have the Internet control switch operational and on standby. They will not let bitcoin get out of their control. You can bet your bitcoin on that.

 

[alsis8xmy]

They will not let bitcoin get out of their control. You can bet your bitcoin on that.

I'm glad I didn't bet my bitcoin on the government being able to stop bittorrent.

 

[Kords21]

I like the idea of bitcoin. With that being said, no Internet, no bitcoin; no electricity, no bitcoin; no form of communication above that of smoke signals, no bitcoin. Two things the government already controls or is about to control, electricity and Internet, and they don't even really need to control the Internet if they control electricity. I'm pretty sure they already have the Internet control switch operational and on standby. They will not let bitcoin get out of their control. You can bet your bitcoin on that.

All the "no" conditions you mentioned would apply to our current system where Debit/Credit cards and how everything is so computerized already wouldn't it? My view is that I would rather put my $ into a currency that seems to grow in value than one that decreases such as the currencies issues by central bankers. To each their own though, that's the great thing about freedom.

 

[Seraphim]

Yes this is a great point. The "electronic failure = no money" argument is exactly the same for credit cards, debit cards, ATM's and bank tellers. Try again.

All the "no" conditions you mentioned would apply to our current system where Debit/Credit cards and how everything is so computerized already wouldn't it? My view is that I would rather put my $ into a currency that seems to grow in value than one that decreases such as the currencies issues by central bankers. To each their own though, that's the great thing about freedom.

 

[muh_roads]

I like the idea of bitcoin. With that being said, no Internet, no bitcoin; no electricity, no bitcoin; no form of communication above that of smoke signals, no bitcoin. Two things the government already controls or is about to control, electricity and Internet, and they don't even really need to control the Internet if they control electricity. I'm pretty sure they already have the Internet control switch operational and on standby. They will not let bitcoin get out of their control. You can bet your bitcoin on that.

Does it really make sense to shut down internet and electricity though?

The worst government can do is make exchanges illegal and spew lots of propaganda to scare people out. Which will eventually happen. non-libertarian exits means more for me to buy. Selling will just be a bit trickier. The Tor browser will always exist to buy metals.

 

[swissaustrian]

Yes this is a great point. The "electronic failure = no money" argument is exactly the same for credit cards, debit cards, ATM's and bank tellers. Try again.

No. He said BTC is not money, he did not say anything about the other mediums of transactions or currencies you were referring to. Neither BTC nor electronic USD nor paper USD nor any kind of card is money. They're all just currency. Money has three specifications:
- durability / self reliance (missing in BTC and USD), often called "intrinsic value" or ultimate "extinguisher of debts". Anything that is relationally constructed falls short of that. Be it debt based (USD and other fiat) or technology based (virtual currencies).
- exchangebility / transferability (medium of exchange, ie currency)
- store of value (USD falling short of that)
So BTC makes 2 out of 3. USD 1 out of 3. Precious metals 3 of 3.

 

[Seraphim]

You misinterpret what I said.

"electronic failure = no money" was meant to infer that if the power goes out, your money is lost or inaccessible.

No. He said BTC is not money, he did not say anything about the other mediums of transactions or currencies you were referring to. Neither BTC nor electronic USD nor paper USD nor any kind of card is money. They're all just currency. Money has four specifications:
- durability / self reliance (missing in BTC and USD), often called "intrinsic value" or ultimate "extinguisher of debts". Anything that is relationally constructed falls short of that. Be it debt based (USD and other fiat) or technology based (virtual currencies).
- exchangebility / transferability (medium of exchange, ie currency)
- store of value (USD falling short of that)
So BTC makes 2 out of 3. USD 1 out of 3. Precious metals 3 of 3.