Is Amash in trouble?

[DeMintConservative]

You must know something Bentivolio's campaign doesn't, because they are worried. That is why they asked for OUR HELP in commenting under the articles about him. Will you help? I linked the thread about it near the top of this one. The AMA is even running hit pieces against him.

We need to be doing the same thing for Amash too.

I will spend a few minutes doing that, but I can't find the link.

I stand for my projections though.

 

[DeMintConservative]

Amash and Bentivolio don't have Obama as their opponent. I don't think the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are good electoral bets is bizarre at all. I think they are better than Romney types at attracting certain types of independants. Comparing the Presidential race to Congressional races is like comparing apples and oranges anyway.

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

 

[LibertyEagle]

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

That's interesting, but the AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION is running ads for Amash's Bentivolio's competition.

 

[LibertyEagle]

I will spend a few minutes doing that, but I can't find the link.

I stand for my projections though.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...unter-slams-under-articles-and-Facebook/page2

 

[DeMintConservative]

That's interesting, but the AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION is running ads for Amash's Bentivolio's competition.

Against Amash too?

Anyway, I'm not sure what's the point. In a Dem-leaning year like 2006 and 2008, they'll probably have to face millions of dollars in ads. If they're struggling in a neutral year because a few hundred thousand dollars in independent expenditures, they'll go down in the first serious challenge.

I've seen the AMA ad on MI-11 and it was pretty bland.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...unter-slams-under-articles-and-Facebook/page2

Thanks.

 

[Pisces]

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

If they were running against Obama they would be getting a lot more backing and support from the party. I'm not blaming all of their troubles on they're being disliked by the GOP establishment, but it doesn't help. Most of the enthusiasm for Romney is because Republicans hate Obama so much and independants are angry about the state of the economy. Plus, Romney is getting obscene amounts of money and media attention that congressional candidates don't get. If Romney were running against Pestka on Amash's budget with lukewarm party support, would he be doing that great? That's a more fair comparison.

 

[DeMintConservative]

Measure against the relative performance of other congressional candidates.

Some will overperform Romney. Some will underperform him.

I'm betting these guys will underperform him in spite of facing average (Amash)/extremely weak (Bentivolio) opponents.

And sure, some Republicans, mostly moderate/centrist Republicans, won't vote for them. I'm sure no Ron Paul supporter in this forum will have a problem with that. What's good for the goose...

 

[Pisces]

Measure against the relative performance of other congressional candidates.

Some will overperform Romney. Some will underperform him.

I'm betting these guys will underperform him in spite of facing average (Amash)/extremely weak (Bentivolio) opponents.

And sure, some Republicans, mostly moderate/centrist Republicans, won't vote for them. I'm sure no Ron Paul supporter in this forum will have a problem with that. What's good for the goose...

And some that overperform are in safer districts, have been in office much longer, etc, etc. Not everyone on this forum believes that Ron Paul candidates are unbeatable. So what is your point in trying to disparage Amash and Bentivolio? Both of them support Romney now that he is the nominee by the way. There's no reason moderate/centrist Republicans shouldn't support them unless they really feel strongly about not reducing the size of government.

 

[DeMintConservative]

And some that overperform are in safer districts, have been in office much longer, etc, etc. Not everyone on this forum believes that Ron Paul candidates are unbeatable. So what is your point in trying to disparage Amash and Bentivolio? Both of them support Romney now that he is the nominee by the way. There's no reason moderate/centrist Republicans shouldn't support them unless they really feel strongly about not reducing the size of government.

Well, I think they should vote for Amash/Bentivolio. But just like Ron Paul supporters here who don't vote for Romney and other GOP candidates, those people will do the same. I think it's wrong, but it is what it is. Paul supporters should understand their position pretty well, considering what I read on this forum.

I'm not disparaging them. I'm assessing them as candidates. It's a pure horserace analysis, nothing to do with who they are or my wishes. As of now, they seem to be weak candidates. It's important they recognize that - I think they need to entrench themselves in the next 2 years (again, I believe both will win and comfortably - although because of the fundamentals of these districts) in order to become a bit safer.

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

 

[NickOdell]

I'm in for $10. All I can do right now.

Date 10/31/2012
Amount $10 (One Time)
Transaction ID aa658924f15d43b888afae41e0fa56b4
Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com

Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb

 

[mz10]

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

You're right, they don't have great crossover appeal. The reason is that few on the left are actually anti-war or pro-civil liberties, they just pretended to be for 8 years because they were anti-Bush.

 

[mz10]

Also, I see 2014 being a Republican wave election if Obama wins, so I don't see a problem for Amash being re-elected (of course Bentivolio will likely face a primary challenge). The more years they spend in office the deeper their war chests get.

 

[Pisces]

Well, I think they should vote for Amash/Bentivolio. But just like Ron Paul supporters here who don't vote for Romney and other GOP candidates, those people will do the same. I think it's wrong, but it is what it is. Paul supporters should understand their position pretty well, considering what I read on this forum.

I'm not disparaging them. I'm assessing them as candidates. It's a pure horserace analysis, nothing to do with who they are or my wishes. As of now, they seem to be weak candidates. It's important they recognize that - I think they need to entrench themselves in the next 2 years (again, I believe both will win and comfortably - although because of the fundamentals of these districts) in order to become a bit safer.

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

Some Ron Paul ideas have more cross-over appeal than others. It depends on many factors, though, and not just the candidate. I don't see Amash as a particularly weak candidate. His being seen as the heir to Ron Paul and his refusal to support crony capitalism have just caused him to not get the same kind of financial support that a Fred Upton type gets. On a personal level, he's young, handsome and intelligent and that usually appeals to low-info voters. I think he needs to find a way to mend fences with the pro-life groups, though.

I need to stop blabbing here and put my money where my mouth is though. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that I can afford to donate right now.

 

[KCIndy]

Also, I see 2014 being a Republican wave election if Obama wins, so I don't see a problem for Amash being re-elected (of course Bentivolio will likely face a primary challenge). The more years they spend in office the deeper their war chests get.

I wish I could share your confidence.

 

[mad cow]

Thank you,

Justin Amash for Congress

Receipt
Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $25.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID 8e4588c35529459a949289d670741f61

Don't understand the date.

 

[tsai3904]

Date 10/30/2012
Amount $50.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID a93c86c7f56b4883b8e44381376dde96

Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com
Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb

Date 10/31/2012
Amount $10 (One Time)
Transaction ID aa658924f15d43b888afae41e0fa56b4
Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com

Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb

Justin Amash for Congress

Receipt
Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $25.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID 8e4588c35529459a949289d670741f61

+rep

 

[EBounding]

I can do $100. Should I split it between Amash and Bentivolio?

I just realized I've donated 3 times more to Bentivolio than to Amash this year. As horrible as it would be for Kerry to lose against a socialist, losing a seasoned Liberty Rep like Amash would be much worse. I think Bentivolio, ironically, has more party support anyway since he's in the strongest Republican district. It sounds like the party has left Amash to fend for himself.

Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $100.00 (One Time)

 

[supermario21]

I wish I could share your confidence.

It will be, at least in the Senate. Republicans can conceivably get close to 60. Only problem is I predict the establishment will start handpicking candidates to run in some of the states, because of the debacles of 2010 and potentially this year. It's why I have argued that we should be supporting guys like Mourdock, Mandel, Akin, etc that Rand has been helping out. There will not be many tea-party/small government nominees in 2014 if the party gets involved in the primary. Remember, we'd likely be looking at a Senate w/o Harry Reid had Sharron Angle not won the nomination, and RINO Mike Castle would be in instead of Coons. Losers like McCaskill and Donnelly could also get elected in seats that Republicans should have no business losing. That's why I think a Romney win isn't going to be devastating. Some of you think we need a Romney loss to force an intra-party war. However, I feel that the Senate races will spark that anyways. Could serve as ammo leading to a Rand 16 primary challenge if he can pit the Tea Party vs the establishment in the 2014 primaries.

 

[mz10]

Only problem is I predict the establishment will start handpicking candidates to run in some of the states, because of the debacles of 2010 and potentially this year.

Trey Grayson, Charlie Crist, and David Dewhurst were all handpicked candidates. How did that work out? The party apparatus itself never gets involved in primaries, which is not to say they don't have their preferences, but there's only so much they can do. Organizations like FreedomWorks and Club for Growth can easily make up the cash differential between establishment and insurgent candidates. I think if everything pans out this November, and we play our cards right over the next few years, 2014 can be a big year for us.

 

[NickOdell]

bump for the night crew