I have a lot of faith in Ron, but relatively little faith in most of the voters of Iowa. They're falling for Huckabee afterall.
I'm thinking a 5th or 4th finish in Iowa, realistically. NH I think 3rd or better is possible. If new, credible polls come out before Jan 3rd that show Paul at closer to 10%, then obviously I'd guess his chances would improve.
3rd in NH?
If we dont win there; The election for us is OVER. No chance. I am also going to step down my active support and concentrate on other personal activities, if he does not win there.
People we are in more of a dire situation than you might think. More is on the line for the first two elections than you think. If we dont get 3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH, and place really really high in NV and SC, it is over.