Iowa- The Sleeper State?

[Harry96]

Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

Haha, lamestream.

 

[adpierce]

Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

I don't believe Thompson has much in the way of an organization here in Iowa. I seriously doubt he'll be able to get people out to vote for him on caucus day unless he decides to unload all his money in Iowa during this last month. He'll spend his money in the south where he has a better chance.

 

[honkywill]

I hope the weather is absolutely horrible.

 

[Harry96]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

 

[adpierce]

I hope the weather is absolutely horrible.

Wouldn't it be better if we totally dominated during sunshine and temperate weather? I know it's optimistic, but if we really fight for Iowa we can do this!

 

[Ethek]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

I've heard this. My concern is something I vaguely recall about the structure of the caucuses being changed. I think before, people were allowed to give speeches that might have been able to influence other delegates before the voting. Is that still the case?

 

[0zzy]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

Indeed, but you don't think any establishment had any part of that? :]. Plus, I saw those debates, Gephardt bore me to death. Though Kerry did, too. Dennis K. was the only one who I found interesting, even Dean was boring. All of them were saying stay in Iraq,

say...nothing much has changed has it?

 

[MozoVote]

I thought the whole point of the caucus is that people meet, and discuss their preferences before voting. It's a community discussion.

 

[0zzy]

I've heard this. My concern is something I vaguely recall about the structure of the caucuses being changed. I think before, people were allowed to give speeches that might have been able to influence other delegates before the voting. Is that still the case?

I believe so. If that is the case, we will have way more votes :].

 

[nullzero]

Good possibility we can get a winter storm... looking through some historic weather data on Iowa, they have major winter storms quite frequently around jan. 1st -6th.

 

[Ron Paul Fan]

There is a big debate on December 12th. Dr. Paul will need to be on the top of his game for that one as it will be broadcast state wide. Hopefully this is when Romney attacks Huckabee! The Iowa Republican Caucus I believe is run much like a straw poll. There are 180 or so different precincts around the state where people come and vote. The Democratic Caucus is run a little differently.

 

[Cunningham]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

I read somewhere that the democrat caucus has some weird rules that involve vote trading. If your canidate can't meet some vote threshold then they negotiate to have your votes go to a different canidate. THe other guys threw there votes to Kerry to beat Dean I believe. The republicans don't have those rules. It kind of makes Kerry beating his poll numbers kind of irrelevent. Someone from Iowa might have a better understanding of how that all works.

 

[majinkoola]

From here - http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis/presidential_primaries/iowa/gop.html

In 2000,

3rd place was 12,268 caucus goers.
4th place was 7,323 caucus goers.
5th place was 4,045 caucus goers.

With the support already in Iowa, the 150 students going there on winter break to campaign, and the other numerous grassroots activities, I see no reason RP cannot reach that 3rd place level at the very least.

 

[leonster]

I believe so. If that is the case, we will have way more votes :].

Sounds good to me... if anyone out there is reading this from Iowa, be ready to be persuasive on Caucus Day! Start reading up on how to convert others...

I know my family back home, political junkies, lifelong Republicans, Bush supporters, are pretty unenthusiastic about the field of Republicans. They aren't Ron Paul supporters... yet... but they certainly don't care much for any of the "front-runners." That says something about the potential for low turnout, I think, for the "front-running" candidates... really, most of these candidates make a pretty weak field.

Weak candidates splitting the vote + 1 candidate with a small but STRONG and dedicated following could = big upsets, in MANY states.

Also... most candidates tend to drop out pretty quickly if they don't win the first few states, because their supporters disappear. I don't think we're going anywhere. Even if we don't do so well at first... the later primaries that get low turnout b/c of ppl thinking their vote won't matter... well, I'm betting the Ron Paul supporters WILL still turn out!

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

I think a very likely scenario is that Huckabee has a weak win over Romney (under 30% total and in first by only a few points), with Paul getting a respectable third over Giuliani. Then even second place in NH is a win for us, since Romney was deprived of his precious twofer. Paul would be THE big story, having beaten three of the five frontrunners both times and another one once.

A few more embarrassments for Giuliani after that and his poll numbers deflate in Florida, which has a ripple effect through the Tsunami Tuesday states he'd been counting on. Huckabee is unable to take off anywhere else (surprise, surprise), McCain has to drop out after being repeatedly trounced by the anti-war candidate he tried to stake his fortunes on a few weeks earlier, Romney's money (which is the only reason he had "support" in those early states) has been wasted and proven insufficient, and Thompson remains asleep.

Hillary has long since locked up her nomination, so many independents in open primaries and Democrats making same-day registration changes in the states where they can start flocking to Paul in the GOP primaries, a few to throw a wrench in the opposition's works but most out of sincerity. Before anyone realizes what's happened, Paul has just schooled Clinton for the third general election debate in a row and Wolf Blitzer is on TV reporting Paul's presidential inauguration as "amazing, amazing."

Sorry, I got a little carried away there.

 

[RockEnds]

The press has been acting strangely. It's almost as if they think there's a risk we could . . . place third. I dunno. It's not January yet. So much WILL change between now and then. Politics can get ugly this time of year.

 

[leonster]

From here - http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis/presidential_primaries/iowa/gop.html

In 2000,

3rd place was 12,268 caucus goers.
4th place was 7,323 caucus goers.
5th place was 4,045 caucus goers.

With the support already in Iowa, the 150 students going there on winter break to campaign, and the other numerous grassroots activities, I see no reason RP cannot reach that 3rd place level at the very least.

150 students going? Awesome... can we get more? Students--think of this as not only a great volunteer effort, but also simply as FUN! With a hundred or few hundred there, you could have GREAT chances to meet people and hang out... kinda a work-hard daytime attitude, party-hard nighttime attitude. Spend the day doing volunteer work, canvassing, working at malls... spend the night out at the local bar with some other cool Ron Paul supporters you've met, have some drinks, and continue chatting with the other people at the bar about Ron Paul in a more casual setting.

 

[Shaun]

He'll come in the top two in IOWA.
Done deal.
Independants, Democrats and non religious Conservatives who are against the war.
No problem..

 

[dante]

150 students going? Awesome... can we get more? Students--think of this as not only a great volunteer effort, but also simply as FUN! With a hundred or few hundred there, you could have GREAT chances to meet people and hang out... kinda a work-hard daytime attitude, party-hard nighttime attitude. Spend the day doing volunteer work, canvassing, working at malls... spend the night out at the local bar with some other cool Ron Paul supporters you've met, have some drinks, and continue chatting with the other people at the bar about Ron Paul in a more casual setting.

I'm one of the students going... and we've been told no alcohol (at least not to bring any). Its pretty much campaign, eat, sleep, repeat... for 9-10 days.

 

[MozoVote]

On top of all this, Y2000 was an election that interested people more. I think it's quite plausible that the vote counts will be 80% of what they were then, from lack of enthusiasm for the other candidates.

A turnout of 10,000 could be enough to get a 3rd place.