Iowa- The Sleeper State?

[0zzy]

I've been hearing a lot of murmurs from the media saying, "Watch out for Ron Paul in Iowa". It's like I'm hearing an old lady in the ally during a dark night tell me something that's about to happen, a premonition.

How well are we gonna do in Iowa? It feels like something might just sneak up on us and surprise us with some big win.

 

[Ethek]

Depends on the weather.

 

[Paulitician]

5th if we don't step it up

 

[Forefall]

I think Ron Paul voters are more likely to "tough it out" through a blizzard than the other's lackeys.

 

[Hope]

I hope we do well. It helps that Ron Paul is asking students to spend either before or after Christmas in Iowa, and he'll pay for all the food, gas, lodging, etc. expenses just so students can go door to door!

 

[ross11988]

Depends on the weather.

Pray for alot of snow.

 

[derdy]

What gives me a lot of hope is that I know people who are wanting to get Ron elected are very dedicated and at the very least will make it to the primaries. I don't think the same can be said about the other candidates' supporters.

 

[MozoVote]

Iowa is famous for being a place where motivated people can surge at the last minute. This gives an edge to Huckabee with all his evangelical support, but I don't think a 2nd place for Ron can be ruled out. Think of the Iowa caucus as a huge straw poll. We know how THOSE have gone.

In any case, 5th or better is at least something ... because it means Ron forced one of the "mainstream" candidates under him.

 

[risiusj]

Depends on the weather.

QFT. Blizzard like conditions would mean that the old crowd that is infatuated with Fox News would stay home. But then, of course, the media would just spin it and say that the turnout was super low, and Ron Paul doesn't have the support to actually win a primary/caucus. They won't acknowledge him until he sweeps all the primaries up to Super Tuesday.

 

[margomaps]

I have a lot of faith in Ron, but relatively little faith in most of the voters of Iowa. They're falling for Huckabee afterall.

I'm thinking a 5th or 4th finish in Iowa, realistically. NH I think 3rd or better is possible. If new, credible polls come out before Jan 3rd that show Paul at closer to 10%, then obviously I'd guess his chances would improve.

 

[ProfNo]

I think if everything goes well, Paul can get third---this would be a win for the campaign.

If we get second, it will be a VERY big deal.

Unfortunately, I think Huck will get first...but he will flop in NH.

 

[adpierce]

We still need to do two things to make sure Ron Paul wins the caucus and they're pretty much common sense.

1. Win more people to the Ron Paul cause by getting his name out here. There are still plenty who don't even know the name Ron Paul, and of those who do many don't know exactly what he stands for.

2. Get the supporters to show up on Caucus day .... NO MATTER WHAT!

Do those two things... we win

 

[M.Bellmore]

What the heck. We need a #1 in NH!

Are the polls for caucus states more accurate than general election states, since they # of ppl that attend are restricted?

 

[BLS]

I truly think Ron can WIN NH. Anything better than 5th in Iowa is an improvement over the Iowa Straw Poll, and can be considered a win.

 

[adpierce]

I truly think Ron can WIN NH. Anything better than 5th in Iowa is an improvement over the Iowa Straw Poll, and can be considered a win.

I beg to differ. Fifth included a candidate above Paul who withdrew his candidacy.. Brownback. Anything above 4th is considered a win in Iowa. Which means he's gotta get 3rd or better in Iowa.

 

[Cowlesy]

Does anyone have any ideas of what the paid staff out in Iowa is doing? Are they doing any outreach? Anything?

 

[Cunningham]

There is a bowl game that night. Hopefully people stay home. Plus, this Huck stuff is just another flavor of the week. Romney is going to hammer him and this "tax Hike Mike" stuff is going to kill him over the next couple weeks. I'm not sure the evangelicals will switch to Ron but hopefully they stay home and watch the Orange Bowl.

 

[MozoVote]

I beg to differ. Fifth included a candidate above Paul who withdrew his candidacy.. Brownback. Anything above 4th is considered a win in Iowa. Which means he's gotta get 3rd or better in Iowa.

Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

 

[adpierce]

Does anyone have any ideas of what the paid staff out in Iowa is doing? Are they doing any outreach? Anything?

They're actively doing a calling campaign, they got signs out on Major highways and throughout the state, they help organize events when Ron Paul comes to town. They're helping to find people in Iowa with room for people to stay who are from out of state to help campaign in Iowa during December.

 

[nist7]

Depends on the weather.

EXACTLY.

Blistering blizzard = good.

Warm sunny day = bad.