Iowa Robopoll Report 6/30/2011

[zerosdontcount]

So were those people informed of Ames or was this just a poll?

 

[rp08orbust]

So were those people informed of Ames or was this just a poll?

Just a poll. I'll find out from Steve Bierfeldt today whether he can accept the data as my personal campaign donation. If so, then I'll leave the human contact about the straw poll to the campaign. Otherwise, rp2012.org phonebankers will invite the Ron Paul supporters to the straw poll.

 

[Thargok]

But unless the Ron Paul supporters are so hardcore that they read this forum, they won't know the robopoll was on behalf of Ron Paul, and therefore there won't be any blowback from the overlap.

You may find yourself in trouble if there isn't any mention of how the ad was paid, you might want to look into that.

 

[parocks]

Great stuff. I've been objecting to what rp2012.org has been doing. What with the "push poll" style and all. What you're doing is quick and dirty, simple and easy. Well thought out. Keep up the good work.

 

[sailingaway]

You may find yourself in trouble if there isn't any mention of how the ad was paid, you might want to look into that.

It shouldn't be hard to add a tag to the end, if it isn't there. I think this is a good idea, myself. You can't coordinate with the campaign, though, if it is an independent expenditure. Leaving the voice contacts to the campaign seems like a careful approach.

 

[parocks]

This sounds like Fritz Wenzel's job. It would also more than double the cost of the poll. We're just trying to find existing Ron Paul supporters for the Ames straw poll.

Is Fritz Wenzel the new pollster? If so you're right on the money. More spot on stuff.

 

[rp08orbust]

You may find yourself in trouble if there isn't any mention of how the ad was paid, you might want to look into that.

Not in Iowa, which is one of the laxest states as far as robocall laws go.

 

[sailingaway]

Actually, I'm not sure if the campaign can accept the names. Maybe you can; I'm not sure if that counts as 'coordination'. I would think you could direct them at least to IowaforRonPaul.com, but we probably need to figure those rules out, anyhow, for grassroots efforts, generally.

 

[rp08orbust]

Actually, I'm not sure if the campaign can accept the names. Maybe you can; I'm not sure if that counts as 'coordination'. I would think you could direct them at least to IowaforRonPaul.com, but we probably need to figure those rules out, anyhow, for grassroots efforts, generally.

We can certainly direct anyone we want to IowaforRonPaul.com if the campaign won't accept the voter data.

And I'm pretty sure I can donate the data that I collected personally, with the $100 I spent counting toward my $2,500 donation limit.

What I'm not sure is whether they can accept the data that is gathered through a grassroots moneybomb-funded robopoll. Probably not.

 

[sailingaway]

Yeah, it is the independent expenditure part I was thinking about.

 

[pacelli]

Yep.

Beautiful

 

[tobefree]

Why am I helping rp2012.org?

Ron Paul's Iowa campaign team have made it clear that the best way to help Ron Paul win the Ames straw poll right now is to donate to the Iowa projects and volunteer for the campaign's phonebanking among Iowa Republicans. However, whether you like it or not, the grassroots phonebanking project, rp2012.org, which targets Iowa independents, appears determined to continue. Given this, my goal is to make rp2012.org as successful as possible and provide a way for those who have maxed out their donations to the official campaign, but who do not have time to phonebank, to continue supporting Ron Paul's efforts to win the Ames straw poll.


Why robopolling?

First, the purpose of the robopolling is not to measure Ron Paul's support in Iowa. I have deliberately skewed the voter sample to maximize the chances of identifying Iowa independents who support Ron Paul. Rather, the purpose of the robopolling is to do just that: Identify Ron Paul supporters who can be urged to vote in the Ames straw poll.

There are many reasons why I favor robopolling over manual phonebanking for the purpose of identifying Ron Paul supporters.

First, the robopoll messages are completely neutral (if anything, they are biased against Ron Paul by his placement in the list of choices) and, except for my Skype caller ID, they are anonymous, so they do not reflect badly on Ron Paul in any way among Iowa voters. (And yes, the robopoll is legal.)

Second, the robopolling is extremely efficient: With this first poll, I've identified as many Ron Paul supporters as the rp2012.org phonebankers have been identifying in a week or more, and it cost only $100.

Third, by separating the identification of Ron Paul supporters from any Ames straw poll invitations, we can ensure that invitations get handled by the best human callers possible. I'll offer the robopoll results to the official campaign first. They can probably accept the results of robopolls that I paid for myself as personal contributions to the campaign (I am far from maxed out), but I'm expecting any future robopoll results paid for by grassroots donations to be rejected due to campaign finance laws. In that case, rp2012.org folks can have the best callers invite the identified Ron Paul supporters to the straw poll.


Today's Sample

Today I called 2,134 registered Iowa voters who met the following criteria:

1. Registered to vote in Iowa as independent (Non-Partisan).
2. Male
3. Will be younger than 40 years hold on August 13.
4. The phone number provided in the voter database is a cell phone number as determined by phonevalidator.com.
5. Primary ZIP code is 50010, 50012, 50013, 50011, 50201, 50105 or 50014.

All of the ZIP codes are within 9 miles driving distance of the Hilton Coliseum, as determined by zip-codes.com (see http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-by-zip-code&p=3367532&viewfull=1#post3367532). I would normally have a bottom age limit to exclude the flakier end of Ron Paul's younger supporters, but I figure if they live that close to Ames, the teenagers are worth a try.


The question

The exact text of the poll question was as follows:



(The hyphen in Pawlenty's name was necessary to get the TTS system to pronounce his name correctly.) The question was designed so that calls would remain just under 1 minute (CallFire charges in 1 minute increments).


Results

2,134 phone numbers were dialed between 7:30pm and 8:15pm Central time.

1,959 calls were answered, which at $0.05 per minute, cost just under $100.

There were 141 responses to the poll question as follows:

Barack Obama: 52 (37%)
Ron Paul: 26 (18%)
Michele Bachmann: 16 (11%)
Mitt Romney: 9 (6%)
Rick Perry: 5 (4%)
Tim Pawlenty: 4 (3%)
Rick Santorum: 2 (1%)
Herman Cain: 1 (< 1%)
Newt Gingrich: 1 (< 1%)
Other/Undecided: 25 (18%)

So I identified 26 Ron Paul supporters in the Ames area at a rate of about $4 each. Considering that phonebanking is identifying Ron Paul supporters at a rate of about 1 out of 100 manual calls made in about an hour, I consider this very efficient.

Thanks rp08orbust!

1) We in the grassroots will take care of the leads from soup to nuts all the way up through the caucus and beyond.
This operation is entirely independent of the campaign and the we in the grassroots will not worry about the official
campaign overlapping OUR efforts.

2) The grassroots database combines the robopoll and personal calling data so there is no overlap. This robopoll is targeted
to get favorable response rates and also votes for Ron Paul. The robopoll got a 6.6% response rate so there are 93.4% of the people
that we need to give personal calls to. Please continue to make as many personal calls as possible. We are planning to
make 1 million dials on July 16th to ID 10,000 supporters.

3) We will have a grassroots moneybomb July 12-14th to pay for:

1) robopolling
2) free admission tickets for Iowan Ron Paul supporters
3) help with transportation
(This will be the grassroots version of the Iowa projects)

Our grassroots efforts are do or die... please support it. As of a week or two ago the official campaign only had 600 people who purchase
tickets to the straw poll. At that pace the official campaign may get roughly 1500. Pawlenty on the other hand has reserved 200 buses
and can bring 10,000 people to the straw poll! (He won't get all the votes, but probably will get 7,000) Pawlenty has the Bush endorsement
and Karl Rove on the team and they are going all in. (Don't tell me you are a better strategist than Karl Rove and that the straw poll
is not that significant.) They are spending half million a month, hired the same company that got Romney 4,000 votes last time, and will
get the Republican establishment apparatus working on GOTV. The Pawlenty camp is planning to win the Straw Poll so Pawlenty can be seen as
electable and as a contender. Ron Paul needs this win even more because the media will paint Ron Paul as 'unelectable'.
Anyways, it is being set up so Pawlenty becomes a contender against Romney/Perry and possibly even Palin .. If we don't break in we will always
be on the outside looking in. We CAN win. The numbers for the personal call program and robopolling show that Ron Paul crushes the competition
with the Independents. Ron Paul is set up to win Iowa AND NH... IF Ron Paul can win this Ames Iowa straw poll.

BELIEVE in the grassroots...

Ron Paul 2012 - Grassroots for Liberty
www.rp2012.org

Twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/rp2012org

Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/user/rp2012org

To help win Ames and election!

Text AMES to (515) 212-2855
Msg & Data rates apply

 

[Elwar]

So at $4 per Ron Paul supporter...we would only need $40,000 to find 10,000 people who can then be bussed in to the Ames straw poll for the win.

 

[rp08orbust]

So at $4 per Ron Paul supporter...we would only need $40,000 to find 10,000 people who can then be bussed in to the Ames straw poll for the win.

That's $4 for identified Ron Paul supporter, not $4 per per vote. We don't know what percentage of those who support Ron Paul or even say they will attend will actually attend.

Also, we would exhaust the favorable demographics long before we identify 10,000 Ron Paul supporters, and would have to start polling among older people, women, and landlines.

I expect the campaign to come up with a lot more than 1,500 votes as it enters its own phonebanking phase of its efforts, so I don't see this as entirely up to us, but rather as a complementary effort that will quite possibly make the difference between 1st and 2nd.

 

[parocks]

Again, a good system you have, good strategy. I much prefer the anonymous poll, gathering the data, and passing the data along to the official campaign.
Serving a complimentary function. All spot on.

That's $4 for identified Ron Paul supporter, not $4 per per vote. We don't know what percentage of those who support Ron Paul or even say they will attend will actually attend.

Also, we would exhaust the favorable demographics long before we identify 10,000 Ron Paul supporters, and would have to start polling among older people, women, and landlines.

I expect the campaign to come up with a lot more than 1,500 votes as it enters its own phonebanking phase of its efforts, so I don't see this as entirely up to us, but rather as a complementary effort that will quite possibly make the difference between 1st and 2nd.

 

[parocks]

Wouldn't the campaign figure those rules out, and tell the grassroots what the answer is?

Actually, I'm not sure if the campaign can accept the names. Maybe you can; I'm not sure if that counts as 'coordination'. I would think you could direct them at least to IowaforRonPaul.com, but we probably need to figure those rules out, anyhow, for grassroots efforts, generally.

 

[rp08orbust]

Again, a good system you have, good strategy. I much prefer the anonymous poll, gathering the data, and passing the data along to the official campaign. Serving a complimentary function. All spot on.

I think it's pretty unlikely that this will be accepted by the campaign. Steve Bierfeldt emailed me shortly after I started this thread and asked me to call him. I left him an answering machine message this morning and haven't heard back, so he's obviously very busy, which is good. But I've gone ahead and sent the robopoll results to tobefree and have asked him if he can raise the money for another robopoll this evening.

 

[johndeal]

Great job. The free market of ideas pulls through again.

 

[parocks]

What then would be the procedures after you take your data and send it on? You have nailed down an efficient way to get the names you want. You're only getting the contact information from the people who answered yes to Ron Paul, correct?

Stage 1 is robopolling, then the data goes to stage 2. stage 2 includes a Ames pitch. What after that, what happens when the person getting the phone call does indicate that they're interested in attending Ames then? How does that person get pushed into the official campaign system, so that the official campaign can be more organized.

I think it's pretty unlikely that this will be accepted by the campaign. Steve Bierfeldt emailed me shortly after I started this thread and asked me to call him. I left him an answering machine message this morning and haven't heard back, so he's obviously very busy, which is good. But I've gone ahead and sent the robopoll results to tobefree and have asked him if he can raise the money for another robopoll this evening.

 

[rp08orbust]

Here's a ChipIn for the next robopoll: http://robertgeary.chipin.com/iowa-robopoll-712011