Iowa RCP averages (12/4-12/21): Cruz 30.3%, Trump 26.9%, Rubio 11.9%

randomname

randomname

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Trump starting his descent? If he doesn't win Iowa his chances of winning anything decrease significantly don't they?

Bush doing surprisingly well, I thought Rand was above him now?
 
Trump leads New Hampshire by 13.7 points over Rubio. Nationally he leads Cruz 36.5% to 17.8%. Rand Paul running about half of Jeb Bush nearly everywhere (4.2% vs 2.5% nationally).
 
randomname said:
Trump starting his descent? If he doesn't win Iowa his chances of winning anything decrease significantly don't they?

Bush doing surprisingly well, I thought Rand was above him now?
Click to expand...

Iowa seems like the only state Trump isn't up comfortably in. He has until this point been dominating in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida so I think he has a lot more to gain in Iowa with a win then he stands to lose. Cruz pretty much staking everything on the state, Trump probably survives unless he falls to third which would be indicative of a descent
 
jkob said:
Iowa seems like the only state Trump isn't up comfortably in. He has until this point been dominating in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida so I think he has a lot more to gain in Iowa with a win then he stands to lose. Cruz pretty much staking everything on the state, Trump probably survives unless he falls to third which would be indicative of a descent
Click to expand...

It always ends up depending on how the media paints the results and aftermath. Hillary finished third in 2008, but instead of treating her as descending, the MSM pumped her up as ascending as a result of her making a teary-eyed statement. Whereas the same press in 2004 treated Dean's excited pep talk to a loud audience after IA as a sign he had lost his mind. So it all depends.
 
If Cruz wins Iowa he will get a huge surge nationally just like Santorum did. He WILL become the viable alternative to Trump. Trump is riding the inevitability polling. Break that and he will come down a lot.
Cruz actually beats Clinton in a general election matchup, where Trump gets his ass handed to him. My daughter thought Trump was the only one shown to beat Clinton. Goes to show the miss information Trumpsters put out that people believe.
 
randomname said:
Trump starting his descent? If he doesn't win Iowa his chances of winning anything decrease significantly don't they?

Bush doing surprisingly well, I thought Rand was above him now?
Click to expand...

Don't confuse a state poll with nationals. Too many in here do that. Trump has always been mid 20s in Iowa. Has held the lead easily nationally. Also holding in NH. Hopefully things will start to change as the voters tune in. About half have yet to make up their minds.
 
From what Wead said, Cruz bought the religious mailing list and used it to strip Carson of his support from these folks.
 
randomname said:
Trump starting his descent? If he doesn't win Iowa his chances of winning anything decrease significantly don't they?

Bush doing surprisingly well, I thought Rand was above him now?
Click to expand...

Not really. Santorum did well in Iowa last time.
 
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