Iowa PPP Poll Will Be Out Before Midnight

[PauliticsPolitics]

Does that help us or hurt us?

It's hard to say.
In one respect, single-issue peace Dems and civil-liberties Dems may come out for Ron Paul.
But there will likely also be some moderate Dems who come out for Romney (to sort of hedge their bets if Obama loses).
In the end, it will probably depend on if we can truly find a way to get the young people out.
The slacker-vote might be the deciding factor here.

 

[jer4liberty]

So if we ASSume that 22% say it is very important again,

we take .22*(26)=5.72% (overall) versus Romney .22*(5)=1.1. So overall that would give us a 4.61% advantage overall, assuming 22% said it was very important again.

 

[Fermli]

3 minutes until 11. It might come out then.

i like your optimism.

 

[braane]

Maybe the kids going home can convince their parents to caucus for Ron. There's two sides to every coin.

 

[pauliticalfan]

So if we ASSume that 22% say it is very important again,

we take .22*(26)=5.72% (overall) versus Romney .22*(5)=1.1. So overall that would give us a 4.61% advantage overall, assuming 22% said it was very important again.

Not sure your math is right. What if Romney leads Paul by a big margin among people who don't think it's very important.

 

[Epic]

No his math is right. He's just saying what the math contribution is from the 22%

 

[enrique]

I don't see how students being gone affects things much. Either they're home where they're registered or they would have to registered at their campus. I think being home would be an advantage really since you can't absentee vote. And if the students are from out of state then the students in Illinois, etc. will come back for break too. Seems like a wash really.

 

[Oddone]

I don't see how students being gone affects things much. Either they're home where they're registered or they would have to registered at their campus. I think being home would be an advantage really since you can't absentee vote. And if the students are from out of state then the students in Illinois, etc. will come back for break too. Seems like a wash really.

Because a good portion of the students are not from Iowa. They leave the state for the Holidays and do not return until later in Jan.

Edit: Either way, it could hurt or help who knows yet.

 

[pauliticalfan]

If the Caucuses weren't during winter break, we wouldn't have so many out of state young volunteers come to Iowa because it's their Christmas Break and they have free time. It all works out. Also, look at Obama's victory there.

 

[Epic]

Not to be overlooked is the fact that even with the smaller gap among those care about retail politics, Paul led ROmney by 5 last poll.

 

[Agorism]

Is the caucus towards the end of their X-mas vacation or towards the beginning. Sounds like towards the end...

 

[WIwarrior]

Ron is winning. Thats why it is coming out late.

 

[tsai3904]

What complicates matters is that students must vote at the precinct they are registered to vote in. If they registered to vote at their school address and then go home, they will have to re-register using their home address. That may be a problem because they then have to show proof of residence at their home address, which they may or may not have.

 

[cdc482]

What complicates matters is that students must vote at the precinct they are registered to vote in. If they registered to vote at their school address and then go home, they will have to re-register using their home address. That may be a problem because they then have to show proof of residence at their home address, which they may or may not have.

Hope they figure that out in time

 

[enrique]

I guess my point was that the Iowa students who were out of state would return too. Impossible to know what the proportion of students coming and going to Iowa or how many are saavy enough to caucus in their hometown. I'd suspect the motivated ones will be able to pull it off.

 

[jsingh1022]

PPP better hurry up there's only 45 minutes people got work in the morning and the whole world is watching

 

[Anti Federalist]

Being during winter break? Hurts. Our supporters can't just pull 10 friends with them from the dorms who kinda like Ron but aren't active enough to caucus for the first time without peer support. We'll see how much it hurts on January 3.

Not sure that demographic was ever large enough to matter.

It's rank and file GOP caucus goers that will decide this.

They really do have a choice to make, four more years of status quo, regardless or...

No One But Paul

 

[braane]

Is the caucus towards the end of their X-mas vacation or towards the beginning. Sounds like towards the end...

ISU resumes on the 18th, UniIowa resumes on the 17th

 

[trey4sports]

Newt was +31 in Iowa just two weeks ago. And now he's in the red.

this goes to show how fast we can lose this thing if we count our chickens before they hatch. Ron is like +30 according to the last ppp poll there so we have to remain vigilant because things can turn at the drop of a dime.

 

[mosquitobite]

It's hard to say.
In one respect, single-issue peace Dems and civil-liberties Dems may come out for Ron Paul.
But there will likely also be some moderate Dems who come out for Romney (to sort of hedge their bets if Obama loses).
In the end, it will probably depend on if we can truly find a way to get the young people out.
The slacker-vote might be the deciding factor here.

This is what I don't get. Why do the dems now all of a sudden care more about entitlements than war? War was the big message in 2008 and why Obama was elected.

WHERE ARE THE ANTI-WAR DEMS?!

Or are they only anti-war with a Republican president? :/ Buncha hypocrites.