Iowa PPP Poll Will Be Out Before Midnight

[Xenophage]

I'm pretty sure we can win statistical ties. If we're within 1% of the leader, I think we'll win Iowa.

 

[clint4liberty]

If or when we win Iowa, how big of an impact will it in the New Hampshire Primary on January 10th? I predict he will have a post Iowa poll bounce of 3-5 percentage pts. So, this would take his highest poll numbers to around 23-25% in New Hampshire.

 

[Agorism]

Intrade Iowa is a shifting a bit towards Paul. Sometimes people or campaigns have insider information and trade prior to actual polls being public so the market often outpaces what is known publicly.

 

[JoelYrick]

How was Paul polling before the Straw Poll?

 

[pauliticalfan]

How was Paul polling before the Straw Poll?

Highest I remember seeing was 16% with Rassmusen, most others showed him closer to 10%.

 

[No Free Beer]

Prediction:

Romney 22
Paul 22
Newt 16
Perry 15
...

 

[Epic]

Huckabee won Iowa but didn't get a NH bounce.

 

[WIwarrior]

Huckabee won Iowa but didn't get a NH bounce.

Huckabee is not Ron Paul

 

[neverseen]

wrooong date

 

[No Free Beer]

I'm pretty sure we can win statistical ties. If we're within 1% of the leader, I think we'll win Iowa.

I couldn't agree more. I would only add that Paul's poll numbers don't do him justice. I find that if he goes into Jan 3rd as, or around the top spot, he crushes and easily wins. I am not a person who jumps the gun and I believe we (the campaign and volunteers) still have a lot of work to do. But, again...I think if we are up there and remain up there going into the caucus day, we will win rather convincingly.

 

[Jtorsella]

Huckabee won Iowa but didn't get a NH bounce.

That's true, but his positions had absolutely no base in NH. We do -- we're already at 18% or so. We just need to overcome Romney. It shouldn't be impossible.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Ron Paul first in IOWA! Keep calling!!! http://www.thestatecolumn.com/artic...t-with-newt-gingrich-in-latest-iowa-ppp-poll/

Last weeks poll dude, and we were in second. Misinformation=not cool.

 

[ross11988]

Huckabee won Iowa but didn't get a NH bounce.

Huckabee was never polling 21% in NH, no money and only had 5 days after Iowa for NH, we have 7

 

[No Free Beer]

Huckabee won Iowa but didn't get a NH bounce.

Huckabee had a very specific base. Everyone in New Hampshire new he was a liberal.

 

[No Free Beer]

I think if Ron can win Iowa,

If he can pull it off,

watch out NH...

 

[merrimac]

I doubt Paul is in the lead otherwise they'd hint at a shocker.

Gingrich is still ahead but not by much.

Gingrich 20%
Romney 18%
Paul 17%

 

[Todd]

Huckabee was never polling 21% in NH, no money and only had 5 days after Iowa for NH, we have 7

And the phone from home program will have been working in NH for many weeks before the primary.

 

[Epic]

That's true, but his positions had absolutely no base in NH. We do -- we're already at 18% or so. We just need to overcome Romney. It shouldn't be impossible.

I think you are right. Ron Paul is doing better in NH than Huckabee. The Free Staters will do all they can. And RP is a better ideological fit.

Most importantly, an Iowa win would confer one of the things that Ron Paul lacks - legitimacy. People will vote for Ron Paul if they know other people are with them - like they won't be laughed at. A win in the Iowa caucuses, and nobody is laughing anymore.

 

[Jtorsella]

I think you are right. Ron Paul is doing better in NH than Huckabee. The Free Staters will do all they can. And RP is a better ideological fit.

Most importantly, an Iowa win would confer one of the things that Ron Paul lacks - legitimacy. People will vote for Ron Paul if they know other people are with them - like they won't be laughed at. A win in the Iowa caucuses, and nobody is laughing anymore.

First Read: The week between Ia and Nh will be absolute hell on earth.

 

[neverseen]

Last weeks poll dude, and we were in second. Misinformation=not cool.

damn. jumped the gun. didn't see the date!