Iowa poll: RP at 2%; 56% of Rs out of Iraq in 6 mo!

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.politics1.com/index.htmhttp://www.politics1.com/index.htm

IOWA: A new Strategic Vision-R poll of likely Iowa caucus participants shows John Edwards (D) and Mitt Romney (R) currently leading in the state. The Dems: Edwards - 26%, Barack Obama - 21%, Hillary Clinton - 20%, Bill Richardson - 11%, Joe Biden - 4%, Chris Dodd - 2%, Dennis Kucinich - 1%. The GOP: Romney - 23%, Fred Thompson - 17%, Rudy Giuliani - 14%, John McCain - 10%, Tommy Thompson - 6%, Mike Huckabee - 5%, Newt Gingrich - 4%, Sam Brownback - 3%, Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo tied with 2% each, and Chuck Hagel, Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore tied with 1% apiece. The same poll also showed Iowa Republicans favor a "withdrawal of all US military from Iraq within the next six months" by a margin of 56%-38%. Dems favored the same stance by a more lopsided 83%-6% margin.


[EDIT: It's leadership, this country lacks. Defend our borders, not Iraq's!]

 

[kylejack]

I think this may be the first time RP hit the boards in Iowa, which is great news. Perhaps this tax reform thing is riling some people up there and allowing them to take notice.

 

[Spirit of '76]

Perhaps this tax reform thing is riling some people up there and allowing them to take notice.

Wait until this weekend.

 

[purepaloma]

Tommy Thompson at 5% ?

What ?

 

[BillyBeer]

Paul doesnt have a chance in Iowa. A campaign needs insane organization and savvy operatives to win there. Jimmy Carter was the only Caucus upset and he practically lived there for a year.

New Hampshire is a different story however. Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, and Pat Buchanan all won there. None of them were frontrunners.

 

[ARealConservative]

Wait until this weekend.

Tommy Thompson is up to 6% because he visits the state.

This is Dr. Paul's second visit to Iowa, and both were quick stops to Des Moines only. To really do damage in iowa he needs to follow this stuff up with some actual travel time through the entire state.

Hopefully we see some of that in July.

 

[BillyBeer]

Tommy Thompson is up to 6% because he visits the state.

This is Dr. Paul's second visit to Iowa, and both were quick stops to Des Moines only. To really do damage in iowa he needs to follow this stuff up with some actual travel time through the entire state.

Hopefully we see some of that in July.

He needs to have a presence in Iowa so he has momentum for New Hampshire, but hes better off concentrating on New Hampshire.

 

[billv]

Tommy Thompson at 5% ?

What ?

I never could figure out how he ranks so high in polls. Maybe it's name recognition? Though I doubt that because most people can't name the vice president let alone the old health and human services secretary, Tommy Thompson.

 

[BillyBeer]

I never could figure out how he ranks so high in polls. Maybe it's name recognition? Though I doubt that because most people can't name the vice president let alone the old health and human services secretary, Tommy Thompson.

Hes a former two term Governor of a neighboring state.

 

[angrydragon]

Who's Tommy Thompson? I haven't heard of him until the debates.

 

[Zydeco]

Paul doesnt have a chance in Iowa.

Give me a break, of course he does. We have six months before the Iowa Caucus, and in the next six weeks we have the June 30th event, the Q2 fundraising numbers released, the nationally televised all-candidates debate in Des Moines and then the straw poll. There is more than plenty of time, RP hasn't even started running ads in the state.

And the antiwar #s in IA among GOP are very good news for RP.

Incidentally, tactically I think RP is going to win NH, so a win in Iowa right before it would be very nice. I have a hard time seeing a candidate win Iowa and New Hampshire and then not win the nomination. I'm going to go check on whether it's ever happened.

UPDATE: nope, it's never happened. NH is more libertarian than Iowa, so if RP wins in Iowa I can't see him not also taking NH. So this could line up very nicely for RP. Stay tuned!

 

[BillyBeer]

Paul doesnt have a chance in Iowa.

Give me a break, of course he does. We have six months before the Iowa Caucus, and in the next six weeks we have the June 30th event, the Q2 fundraising numbers released, the nationally televised all-candidates debate in Des Moines and then the straw poll. There is more than plenty of time, RP hasn't even started running ads in the state.

And the antiwar #s in IA among GOP are very good news for RP.

He needs a ground operation and paid operatives to make everything run smoothly.

 

[Zydeco]

I'm sure he'll have that BB.

 

[njandrewg]

I never could figure out how he ranks so high in polls. Maybe it's name recognition? Though I doubt that because most people can't name the vice president let alone the old health and human services secretary, Tommy Thompson.

I wouldn't put it past the uninformed voter who doesn't know Fred Thompson's first name, and votes by the last name

 

[Bradley in DC]

Tommy Thompson at 5% ?

What ?

He has been auto-dialing and mailing like mad. That's why I think when he doesn't place well in the straw poll, or certainly in the caucus, he's toast. He (and Brownback) are putting everything into Iowa.

 

[Bradley in DC]

He needs to have a presence in Iowa so he has momentum for New Hampshire, but hes better off concentrating on New Hampshire.

Iowans share his views on taxs, abortion and the war. This is GREAT place to start!

 

[james1906]

tommy's brother ed is the libertarian mayor of tomah, wi. he should run in the GOP primary. people would definitely confuse ed thompson with fred thompson.

 

[Zydeco]

Iowa polls not meaningless at this point, but very fluid

Just to show how much the Iowa polls can change between now and the Jan. 5 Caucus, read the wikipedia entry for the 2004 Democratic Iowa Caucus:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses

In short, Gephardt had the lead in polls there at this point in '03. Kerry and Edwards were in single digits. Then Dean started to make progress nationwide with an anti-war message, and it was between Dean and Gephardt in the polls in Iowa for the last half of '03. And then, per wikipedia:

During the last weeks of the campaign however the polls began to indicate a significant change in support. Dean and Gephardt had been hammering each other with negative advertisements. Both candidates began hemorrhaging support to revived Edwards and Kerry campaigns. Edwards received a major boost when he was endorsed by Iowa's largest newspaper. At the last minute Edwards also reached a deal with Kucinich for all of Kucinich supporters to go to the Edwards camp if they were not viable in their caucuses.

The results were very similar to that indicated by last minute polling, but were a surprise compared with weeks earlier.

Final results:

Candidate Percentage
John Kerry 37.6
John Edwards 31.8
Howard Dean 18.0
Richard Gephardt 10.6
Dennis Kucinich 1.3

People really don't make up their minds until the last few weeks in most cases. With his anti-war and anti-tax message, I bet RP takes both Iowa and NH.

 

[Bradley in DC]

We can make it happen

Jason Stoddard of the Austin MeetUp group (and former Ron Paul Congressional intern) is training people to make calls to Iowa registered voters (1.6 million). They are starting with the 2006 Iowan Republican delegates list. Initial evaluation is that almost no one called had heard of Dr. Paul or was familiar with his views (and these are politically aware people) but that a good number are not only receptive but very supportive when they learn about him!

To help, contact Jason at [email protected] or 512.925.0921. This should be what all of us are doing to complement the DVD project, news of "unfairness" to him, etc., and create a nice buzz.

 

[Dan Klaus]

Brownback? Frankly hadn't heard of him, but hope his voters come to the Paul camp once he bows out.