Iowa Poll- Iowa State University/KCRG/Gazette poll- Cain 24.5%, Paul 20.4%, Gingrich 4.8%

[Lord Xar]

Cain will fall in sexually conservative Iowa. 20%? The bloomberg poll was not a fluke! We are top tier! YEAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

If so, why not before now?

 

[Karsten]

But is it legit?

Of course it's legit. Iowa State University has done other polls that are considered legit.

 

[IterTemporis]

News of the sexual harassment claims was breaking as the poll was being conducted.

Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich.

..?

 

[Karsten]

If so, why not before now?

It takes time for polls to reflect reality both up and down. Paul is not done going up and Cain is not done going down.

 

[bluesc]

Vote this up on r/Libertarian for those damn skeptical libertarians. Top of the list http://www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/new/

Don't ignore that ^^ A lot of donations rely on their enthusiasm.

 

[tsai3904]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

 

[bluesc]

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

So this confirms what Ron was saying about their internals showing this for a while.

 

[NeoconTea]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

The poll started on November 1st. A lot of the discrepancy can be Cain people switching over to Newt because some of it was before the real "Newt surge".

I think the weird thing is that Paul is 20% in one, 19% in another, and 11% in one, and 10% in another. For some reason I'm more likely to trust Iowa State and Selzer & Co. than Insider Advantage and The Polling Company.

 

[rp08orbust]

Don't polls usually come out mid-morning? What's with all these pro-Paul polls coming out in the middle of the night?

 

[parocks]

this is a pretty amazing poll.

 

[Karsten]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

If this poll was conducted while the Cain charges were BREAKING, than it was before some of the Cain people switched to Newt.
It doesn't reflect the reality that Newt's a bit higher and Cain's a bit lower than these numbers might suggest.
But there's no reason to believe our numbers are not correct! We're more enthusiastic and we'll do well better in January than even these polls suggest!

 

[low preference guy]

Don't polls usually come out mid-morning? What's with all these pro-Paul polls coming out in the middle of the night?

I think they're published but everybody is sleeping at that time. Except our RP people like the OP who catch it immediately.

 

[pauladin]

lol did anybody else notice that huntsman got zero?

 

[Fermli]

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

there's another Iowa poll conducted on Nov 3rd that has Gingrich at 12%. Even late October he was polling at around 9%.

 

[Eric21ND]

This was a poll of 1200 people? That's a huge sample size for one state like Iowa.

 

[parocks]

The poll started on November 1st. A lot of the discrepancy can be Cain people switching over to Newt because some of it was before the real "Newt surge".

I think the weird thing is that Paul is 20% in one, 19% in another, and 11% in one, and 10% in another. For some reason I'm more likely to trust Iowa State and Selzer & Co. than Insider Advantage and The Polling Company.

I looked at the numbers I could from Bloomberg and Insider Advantage. Part of the difference between Insider Advantage and Bloomberg was that Insider didn't talk to as many kids. I reconfigured the numbers to look at what the numbers would be if Insider Advantage talked to as many kids as Bloomberg. And Insider Advantage would be 14.1 percent.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Holy moly, 20.4%. Confirms the Bloomberg poll. Full steam ahead, hit the phones, donate, donate, donate. We have to keep it up!

 

[Badger Paul]

We must, must increase our support among Catholics to win this thing.

 

[parocks]

So it looks like we don't have to focus on poor, college-educated, agnostic males.
Surprise!

Who is "we". If "we" is GOTV, yes, that's exactly who we target.

 

[bluesc]

Holy moly, 20.4%. Confirms the Bloomberg poll. Full steam ahead, hit the phones, donate, donate, donate. We have to keep it up!

This confirms the need for an Iowa themed ticker on the campaign's site. We need to ride this momentum with fundraising to get ads back on the air. Critical time.