Iowa Caucus: Final Predictions

[limequat]

I had a dream last night about the caucus. The results were:

Paul 29%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Perry 13%

and the rest I don't remember, but I think Bachmann had like 3%.

I'm glad that I'm not the only one having RP dreams. Serious stalker shit, there.

 

[No Free Beer]

Damn man, you really broke this thing down. For that, I give you a +rep.

To your question/prediction

Paul
Romney
Santorum

That is mine

 

[No Free Beer]

Update from PPP:

Sat: Romney 21, Paul 19, Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10. Sun: Paul 21, Romney/Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10

I dont know if anyone posted this...

 

[Forty Twice]

I predict 125,000 turnout with final tally of:

Ron Paul 32%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 3%
Roemer 1%

I feel insiders have known for a while that Paul will win Iowa easily. Corporate media propaganda (including poll manipulations) have tried
to dampen Paul's lead. Polls look close but nobody on TV's declaring that Iowa is relevant again.

I believe ultimate RNC and corporate media objective is for Romney (or Perry) to win. Then the general election is between two Goldman Sachs candidates. Mission accomplished for the .01%. I still expect that result even if it takes something unspeakably ugly to
accomplish it.

With four Tea-O-Cons splitting that vote, Romney or Perry were supposed to win based solely on his perceived electability. But I think
three things went wrong for the RNC. Perry had his Ooops moments, Romney is a putz, and internet media/Ron Paul have been very
effective.

With the Tea-O-Con vote so evenly split, there is no effective non-Ron alternative to Romney. Then Romney has failed to motivate
many voters to turn out for him either. Internet media is providing an effective counter to corporate media plus Ron has put together
an excellent message. Ron Paul is 100X the better politician than any of his opponents. He's a man among children.

I expect low turnout from traditional Republicans because they lack enthusiasm for Romney or any Tea-O-Con. Recent Santorum push
may simply be an effort to provide hope for Tea-O-Cons so more might turn out. His surge looks like complete fiction headed for epic
failure.

As for non-traditional turnout, it should be higher than advertised (more than 24%) because of extreme energy for Paul and, in contrast
to 2008, no rock-star alternative on Democratic side. Whereas 2008 was a horrible year to expect the young, independent, and
Democrat to vote for Paul, this is the perfect storm for heavy turnout.

 

[vita3]

Victory

 

[jax]

If there's a good turnout:

Ron: 27%
Frothy: 21%
Mitt: 19%
Newt: 13%
Perry: 11%

 

[tttar]

Iowa GOP moving vote-count to 'undisclosed location'

What are your opinions on this?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...votecount-to-undisclosed-location-108812.html

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

 

[justatrey]

Paul pulls off the impossible and wins by less than 100 votes. So something like

Paul 24.51%
Romney 24.50%
Santorum 20%

 

[nasonex]

Paul 26%

 

[Son of Detroit]

Steve King just said on Fox:

"I think Romney and Santorum will be in the top two, and it should be interesting to see if Ron Paul can hang on to the top 3 or if someone else will take that spot".

 

[tttar]

So we have no concerns about how all these wonderful votes will actually be counted?

This guy got no replies:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...votes-MUST-BE-MONITORED-OR-WE-WILL-LOSE-AGAIN!

 

[justatrey]

So we have no concerns about how all these wonderful votes will actually be counted?

This guy got no replies:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...votes-MUST-BE-MONITORED-OR-WE-WILL-LOSE-AGAIN!

The campaign has plans in place to monitor the count:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343183-IMPORTANT-Ron-Paul-Facebook-Page-asks-us-NOT-to-Watch-the-Vote!

 

[tttar]

The campaign has plans in place to monitor the count:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343183-IMPORTANT-Ron-Paul-Facebook-Page-asks-us-NOT-to-Watch-the-Vote!

Thanks, I missed that. Maybe the thread should be stickied. What did you think about Trotter's article?

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

 

[bobburn]

Paul overperforms compared to the polls, gets 27%
Romney and Frothy hit at 19% each.
Perry at 13%
Gingrich at 9%
and then the rest.

 

[justatrey]

Thanks, I missed that. Maybe the thread should be stickied. What did you think about Trotter's article?

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

One interesting possibility mentioned in that article would be a delay in the release of the results, which could also delay any momentum the winner would get leading up to NH.

Believe me, I think if Paul has the votes to win, the establishment would steal it from him at the drop of a hat...if they can. It's very, very difficult to pull off vote rigging since the results can be verified later by simply adding up the totals from each individual caucus location. We just have to trust the campaign when they tell us they've got it under control.

 

[tttar]

"We just have to trust the campaign when they tell us they've got it under control. "

If this had been made as obvious as the "free bumper sticker" sticky thread, I would have kept my stupid mouth shut about it.

I did look first, but that Trotter guy seemed to have already done all the heavy thinking on this for me.

 

[iamse7en]

I think the CFR-banking cartel is more prepared than we think and will fudge the numbers in Santorum's favor. And the CFR-media will have a conniption saying how this changes everything. Iowa will then matter.