Iowa Caucus: Final Predictions

[Jtorsella]

It's very possible that all of the ducks are lining up to put us and santorum in front of Romney so he loses momentum going into New Hampshire. If we can win NH and IA, we actually have a shot at the nomination.

 

[Sublyminal]

Tomorrow Iowa will either embarrass us or they will make us proud.

 

[Jtorsella]

Tomorrow Iowa will either embarrass us or they will make us proud.

Either

Or

 

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

Starting in early 2007 I allowed myself to have faith that good things could still come... As we enter 2012 I have no choice but to keep that hope alive. Let's go bag us Iowa.

 

[Matthew Zak]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

 

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

Can we wait and see what happens in Iowa and NH before we even start wondering about that?

 

[milo10]

Iowa Final Results

Ron Paul, 26%
Rick Santorum, 24%
Mitt Romney, 20%
Newt Gingrich, 11%
Rick Perry, 9%
Michele Bachmann, 7%
Jon Huntsman, 3%

I am just trying to understand this.

Santorum has hardly anybody show up at his events. I can't imagine he has any PFH program to speak of. He did visit all 99 counties, which I think was one of the smartest moves of his campaign. I know he has the social conservative vote, but so does Perry and Bachmann, who both have more national name recognition. Bachmann might be in freefall, but I think even she pulls more people at events than Santorum does. Perry is running a lot of TV ads, and is frankly a much more likeable personality than Rick.

Who is the best organized in Iowa, btw, in terms of caucus speakers and getting voters out? I assume we are first, but second, third....

I really hope you are right, because a Paul-Santorum-Romney win would be incredible, but I don't see Rick beating Mitt. What am I missing?

 

[KingNothing]

Best organization in Iowa is Ron Paul, without question. Following Paul, Perry is probably second. Behind Perry, I would guess that Romney's campaign has the means and experience to GOTV. After Mittens..... probably everyone else has less-than-stellar ground games.

 

[milo10]

Best organization in Iowa is Ron Paul, without question. Following Paul, Perry is probably second. Behind Perry, I would guess that Romney's campaign has the means and experience to GOTV. After Mittens..... probably everyone else has less-than-stellar ground games.

Thanks. Knowing that makes me think it will be something like:

Paul
Romney
Santorum
Perry or Gingrich

I don't know if it will happen, but I like the idea of Perry beating Gingrich, as having Newt in 5th place behind both Perry and Santorum is a huge blow going into New Hampshire. Perry is basically irrelevant in New Hampshire, currently polling at 2% on Politico. Santorum will also be irrelevant there.

By South Carolina, Ron and Mitt should be the only two left standing in practical terms.

 

[Zydeco]

Rp 28%, winning

 

[jersdream]

Ron Paul 30.3%
Rick Santorum 25.5%
Mitt Romney 21.7%
Newt Gingrich 13.8%
Rick Perry 11.1%
Michele Bachmann 3.9%
Jon Huntsman 1.4%

 

[Johnnybags]

I believe we will set a New record for turnout. If not now, then when?


Turnout?

Turnout will not reach 2008's record of almost 120,000. However, it will not dip to the anemic levels of 2000 (less than 90k).

I predict a turnout of 105,000.

Record high turnout of independents and Democrats in the caucus, record turnout of voters under 45.

 

[KingNothing]

Ron Paul 96%
Gary Johnson 4%

 

[Liberty74]

Paul 30
Romney 22
Sanatorum 21

This is what I hope, not what I expect which is a very tight 3 way race which could go either way due to the Santorum surge and the the lack of senior support for Paul who always show up. Just saying...

 

[freedomforever!]

My dream:

Paul 99%
Hunstman 0.3%
Bachmann 0.3%
Perry 0.3%
Johnson 0.1 %

 

[Joseph]

My hope is that Ron Paul gets bare minimum 25 percent, hopefully more like 28-30 percent.

 

[limequat]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

What's Gary Johnson polling nationally? Sincere question.

 

[pauladin]

Ron Paul 30.3%
Rick Santorum 25.5%
Mitt Romney 21.7%
Newt Gingrich 13.8%
Rick Perry 11.1%
Michele Bachmann 3.9%
Jon Huntsman 1.4%

Lol your numbers add up to 107.7%

 

[limequat]

Lol your numbers add up to 107.7%

He probably works for insider advantage

 

[VictorB]

I had a dream last night about the caucus. The results were:

Paul 29%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Perry 13%

and the rest I don't remember, but I think Bachmann had like 3%.