Iowa Caucus: Final Predictions

[1836]

All the information I could gather, anecdotes, and polls, go into this. It is not overly optimistic. But politics cannot be. Given what is really going on in Iowa, this seems to me the likeliest scenario.

I am going to give to these predictions a margin of error of +- 2%. That said, I expect the order of the top 3 to be as I predict here.

Iowa Final Results

Ron Paul, 26%
Rick Santorum, 24%
Mitt Romney, 20%
Newt Gingrich, 11%
Rick Perry, 9%
Michele Bachmann, 7%
Jon Huntsman, 3%

Turnout

Turnout will not reach 2008's record of almost 120,000. However, it will not dip to the anemic levels of 2000 (less than 90k).

I predict a turnout of 105,000.

Record high turnout of independents and Democrats in the caucus, record turnout of voters under 45.

Geography
Ron Paul wins Polk County (Des Moines) narrowly over Romney, thanks to heavy turnout in traditionally Democratic areas in southern Polk county and urban Des Moines. Romney will, however,win a few large individual precincts in Polk County. Ron Paul wins eastern Iowa's traditionally more Democratic areas, such as Davenport.

Santorum resoundingly wins northwest Iowa and most of Steve King's congressional district. Romney wins a few (15ish?) scattered counties where his organization is best... hard to say where exactly that is.

Explanation

Ron Paul has the best organization in Iowa and by far the most voters identified. Some of these voters will not turn out and some will defect to other candidates. However, in the end a larger than average number of independents will win the caucus for Paul. Also worth remembering that the Paul organization reaches into every last corner of the state. He will win a number of small counties, particularly in the east, thanks to the work of solid precinct captains.

Santorum will win the Republican vote as his surge carries him into the low 20s. Some of this is genuine Santorum support, and some of it will be Newt/Perry/Bachmann support bleeding off to the social conservative anti-Romney of the moment. Santorum likely gets Steve King's endorsement late Monday which gives Santorum a hold on the northwestern part of the state and a few points overall.

Romney underperforms, not because he hasn't tried, but because his support is soft and older. A larger number of young voters will leave Romney struggling to even break 20% in the caucuses.

Now, if you haven't donated recently... help make this result matter. Contribute generously to the campaign.

Iowa can happen. The nomination can happen. Keep working, keep praying.

 

[Dsylexic]

shouldnt hunstman get zero? he insulted iowan voters by calling them corn pickers who are incapable of choosing the president.

 

[1836]

shouldnt hunstman get zero? he insulted iowan voters by calling them corn pickers who are incapable of choosing the president.

Huntsman gets a little boost from the larger turnout of independents and Democrats. Trust me on this.

 

[Matthew Zak]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.

 

[Dsylexic]

santorum is doing us a favor if he comes second to paul.he will be encouraged to stay on into south carolina and eat up grinch/perry necon/boobus-evangelical votes. paul gets the intelligent evangelicals and the real conservatives. romney remains -and we go after him with SC ads.we should end up atleast a high second in SC with the divided field.

 

[1836]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.

You are underestimating the Iowa organization. Even with difficult late factors, even being a pessimist as I truly am about these things, the Iowa effort will prevail. Of this I am supremely confident.

 

[Dsylexic]

you think wrong.none of the polls have factored in independents .if they have,then paul is always shown in the lead.
the only reason for paul to lose would be if the young people dont turn up.but this is not the 'usual youg' people.these are the people who really want to kill status quo.not the partying goofballs.

second:we already have hard pledges of upto 30k (thats what rp said on the wallace show).we are atleast 25% even with a high turnout.

 

[1836]

you think wrong.none of the polls have factored in independents .if they have,then paul is always shown in the lead.
the only reason for paul to lose would be if the young people dont turn up.but this is not the 'usual youg' people.these are the people who really want to kill status quo.not the partying goofballs.

second:we already have hard pledges of upto 30k (thats what rp said on the wallace show).we are atleast 25% even with a high turnout.

Very likely more than 30k but you cannot expect them to turn out. I think we are looking at between 27 and 28 thousand votes, maybe a few more.

 

[Karsten]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

 

[Karsten]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.

The only polls that have showed us third are not even considered legitimate by Real Clear Politics.
The ones that show us down in the RCP average are all within the margin of error, and thus a statistical tie for first.
We have the best organization BY FAR.

 

[rp2012win]

Santorum likely gets Steve King's endorsement late Monday which gives Santorum a hold on the northwestern part of the state and a few points overall.

He's been threatening to endorse if he thought ron paul could win. The guy has no convictions at all, but the sheep will enthusiastically walk the plank for him.

 

[-:Undertaker:-]

The only poll which worried everybody was DMR where it had us at 18%, the latest poll shows us at 20% in first place - stay cool everyone, it'll be a BIG suprise if we're lower than 20%.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

Yes. It could help the race tighten up a lot, and a strong second could lead us into SC, which will be critical.

 

[Karsten]

I know we can and will win on Tuesday Night. But just remember, WHATEVER happens, it simply cannot go ANY worse than this:

 

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

real numbers

Other 25%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%

 

[Karsten]

real numbers

Other 25%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%

I kind of doubt Romney will do much in the way of turnout due to his mismatch with socially conservative Iowa. Could be wrong though, anything can happen.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

Agreed.

 

[TIMB0B]

Ron Paul will crack 30%

 

[jsem]

Paul 24%
Romney 23%
Santorum 21%

Something like that for the top three is my prediction.

 

[1836]

Ron Paul will crack 30%

I highly doubt it. Not that I wouldn't love it, but Ron has lost too much momentum to get over 30%. If turnout were down around 2000 levels, that might be possible.