Intrade

[Fetou]

Intrade is a solid indicator of what is going on but it not always accurate or rational. There are frequently chances for small amounts of arbitrage between markets.

Not arbitrage, but last night you could have made money by predicting Paul and Romney would be in the top 2. By buying one and hedging the other way, there was an expected positive return, with the only risk being Santorum coming from behind.

 

[Agorism]

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
44.4%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
29.4%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
28.6%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.6%
CHANCE

Romney was 56 this morning so he's gone down, but Santorum also went up a bit.

 

[Agorism]

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
37.5%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
29.2%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
28.8%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.7%
CHANCE Predict

Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
79.2%

Romney just hit 30's

 

[Archie]

Sharp Money has been steaming the Santorum Line since late last night when you good get Rick at over 4-1 odds. The betting line is moving against Romney and against Ron Paul as the current line is presenting alot more value for those guys then it did last night.

Here is Betfair Live betting.

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=103732055&ex=1&origin=LHMA

Paul was at one point as low as 2.90 odds a few hours ago, now he is paying over 3.25 odds. Romney was as low as 2.19 odds a few hours ago and now he is paying over 2.40 odds. Alot of Money is coming on Santorum the last few hours be it to create a "middle" or to arb a future but the bottomline is the smart money is not counting out a surprise shock win by Rick tonight or atleast finishing at 2nd place.

I think RP will come in third tonight but I Hope to hell Im wrong.

 

[Archie]

Holy shit Huge Line mov't just went RP's way on Betfair where you are only getting just over 2.10 odds for Ron Paul. This could be some Arbing or middles right now but bottom line is the early votes indicate RP is tied with Romney right now and the Market is moving against Rick and Romney due to this Early poll results. Santorum line went to over 5-1 at one point.

 

[Johncjackson]

Paul was at 42% and Romney 40 a couple minutes ago.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Finally overtook Romney on Intrade.

 

[InTradePro]

Over 50% in intrade now.

 

[merrimac]

Ron Paul at 42% and Mitt with 38%. If you have a gut feeling Bachmann can pull off her miracle now would be a good time to buy since she's about .1% LOL

 

[Highstreet]

Ron Paul 50%
Romney 38%

 

[merrimac]

Crap, Paul dropped 1%. He's still in the lead by a large amount but hope this isn't a trend.

 

[merrimac]

Wow, take that back now he's at 55%

 

[InTradePro]

Paul 3,821 25%
Romney 3,650 24%
Santorum 3,636 23%

Driven by results.

 

[Agorism]

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
35.5%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
50.0%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
18.5%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.3%

beat me to it. Looking better than Ames straw poll final intrade trend!

 

[Highstreet]

Paul 55
Romney 28
Santorum 20

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Paul 55
Romney 28
Santorum 20

LOL hey they got something right, they did put Mittens in 2nd.

 

[Aratus]

mitt romney may have edged past rick santorum by 14 votes in the popular vote. how is intrade going to pay out if its a statistical tie?

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Romney did edge Santorum. Now Intrade is 100% wrong.