Intrade predicts a 94.8% chance of a Rand Paul victory

[Southern Man]

and a 9.9% chance of victory for CONway.

More evidence indicating that the race is OVER.

 

[Agorism]

How does this compare to Paul vs. Grayson in the final week?

 

[JoshLowry]

Whatever it was, 94.8% isn't going to be far from it.

 

[amisspelledword]

this intrade is curious

do you guys participate? is it fun?

and, perhaps more importantly, is it accurate?

 

[Brett85]

Intrade doesn't seem too concerned about the incident that happened last night. Lol. I wonder why.

 

[Brett85]

this intrade is curious

do you guys participate? is it fun?

and, perhaps more importantly, is it accurate?

I haven't participated in it, though I've thought about it. It is extremely accurate though, perhaps more accurate than the polling. In the 2008 Presidential election they got all the states right except for Indiana and Missouri, and those two states were decided by about 1,000 votes.

 

[cswake]

YouTube - Prediction Markets -- Stossel In The Classroom

 

[obijuan]

and a 9.9% chance of victory for CONway.

More evidence indicating that the race is OVER.

538 has Rand slightly better than that! I disagree with Nate Silver politically...but he's ridiculously accurate when assessing a large number of polls. This is a great sign.

 

[Brett85]

538 has Rand slightly better than that! I disagree with Nate Silver politically...but he's ridiculously accurate when assessing a large number of polls. This is a great sign.

It is a great sign. Angle and Buck are currently over 50% as well. West Virginia is going in the opposite direction, however.