Englander’s experience is another reason for the Paul campaign’s calm. He was brought onto the team in January, just months after managing the campaign of Illinois’ Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner. Buffeted by attacks on his wealth, Rauner struggled to build a lead over the state’s unpopular Democratic governor. The final forecast on Nate Silver’s data-crunching site FiveThirtyEight gave Rauner just a 36 percent shot at winning his race.
One day later, even as other Republicans flopped statewide, Rauner was elected governor. It was the kind of experience that might teach people to trust the playbook and ignore the polls.