Insider Advantage GOP Iowa Caucus Poll & GOP South Carolina Poll (11/28)

Romney with I think an unlucky poll result here, but he's definitely slipping in Iowa. It's now been over a month since he polled 20% or higher there, and the last time he polled as low as 12% was in April of 2007, when Giuliani led a Strategic Vision poll.

Other interesting notes, Romney is actually in 5th place amongst men, and Gingrich is running away with the female vote.

Iowa Men

23% Gingrich
19% Paul
16% Bachmann
14% Cain
7% Romney
6% Perry

Iowa Women

33% Gingrich
15% Romney
8% Paul
7% Perry
6% Cain
5% Bachmann

"Hold on, moms, it's not too late," evidently not doing it for the women voters.

Paul at just 6% amongst Republicans.

Iowa Republicans

31% Gingrich
14% Bachmann
14% Romney
8% Perry
6% Paul
5% Cain

However, he does lead with Independents and Democrats.

Iowa Independents

30% Paul
25% Gingrich
22% Cain
8% Romney
3% Perry
2% Bachmann

Iowa Democrats

26% Paul
11% Gingrich
9% Cain
8% Bachmann
3% Romney
2% Perry
 
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freefromchains said:
That's what I meant about the cross tabs....lots of BS in there!
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Uh... am I reading these cross tabs correctly? The race break down says they have 10 black respondants. Bachmann get's 4.3% of that vote. How the hell do you get 4.3% out of a sample of ten?
 
Ugh this is frustrating. It feels like it doesn't even matter if we expose newt because his supporters will just go tonanyone but Paul. I really feel like they'd just go back to perry or go to huntsman or something.
 
Another decent poll. Remember that 90% of people aren't paying any attention yet, even in Iowa. RP's support is solid and moving up, that's the key thing. We've seen Bachmann, Perry, Cain and now Gingrich suddenly elevated to levels of support in the polls that clearly don't exist on the ground.
 
A few of things:

1). Gingrich has no campaign to speak of in Iowa. He has no way of getting people to the caucuses on his own, he would need a huge turnout of people just going out of habit.

2). Romney's tumble may make them think twice about going all-in for Iowa. I wonder if lends credibility to rumors Romney's people may starting back Paul as strategic voting method to blunt Gingrich.

3). The polling was probably done before the latest Cain allegations which look to be much more credible than the previous allegations. I think everyone senses the Cain's campaign is steadily losing air in the wake of Gingrich. This is a campaign which needed momentum and doesn't have any right now.

It's a three-person race Romney-Paul-Gingrich and it makes sense this way.
 
69360 said:
Looking real good. Ron is only going up and Newt will be crashing on schedule soon.
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If Newt is "crashing on schedule" that's great.

If he isn't, that's bad.

Someone might want to make a tv commercial trashing Newt, in case he doesn't crash on schedule.
 
AggieforPaul said:
Ugh this is frustrating. It feels like it doesn't even matter if we expose newt because his supporters will just go tonanyone but Paul. I really feel like they'd just go back to perry or go to huntsman or something.
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Maybe. If they scatter to many candidates, that's fine.
 
limequat said:
Uh... am I reading these cross tabs correctly? The race break down says they have 10 black respondants. Bachmann get's 4.3% of that vote. How the hell do you get 4.3% out of a sample of ten?
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SC poll is the same way. RP got 59.2% of 16 black votes. That.s 9.472 people. WTF? Who is the half of a black dude that supports RP?
 
parocks said:
If Newt is "crashing on schedule" that's great.

If he isn't, that's bad.

Someone might want to make a tv commercial trashing Newt, in case he doesn't crash on schedule.
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There's virtually no positive press for newt. It's about 90% negative.
 
limequat said:
SC poll is the same way. RP got 59.2% of 16 black votes. That.s 9.472 people. WTF? Who is the half of a black dude that supports RP?
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Margin of error. The black gop vote in SC is virtually non-existant, so don't worry about it.
 
freefromchains said:
Previous poll from 11/8 in Parentheses

Iowa
Gingrich 28% (15%) +13
Paul 13% (11%) +2
Romney 12% (19%) -7
Bachmann 10% (5%) +5
Cain 10% (23%) -13
Perry 7% (9%) -2
Santorum 3% (3%) --
Huntsman -- (--) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_Iowa_GOP_1129.pdf

South Carolina
Gingrich 38% (19%) +19
Romney 15% (16) -1
Cain 13% (26%) -13
Paul 7% (3%) +4
Perry 4% (6%) -2
Bachmann 3% (5%) -2
Santorum 2% (2%) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_GOP_1129.pdf

Never been a huge fan of their polls because they sorely lack information and their cross tabs are usually pretty ridiculous.

But nice to see positive traction in a typically unfavorable pollster (albeit a small increase...it is an increase!)
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According to these polls, we are still absolutely crushing it with 18-29 year old men, and have little support anywhere else.

What are we doing to get those 18-29 year old men to the polls?
 
South Carolina voted for Nikki Taylor, so it can be a State where Ron Paul can win.
 
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Iowa
total 18-29 30-45 46-64 65+
Paul 13.3 46.8 15.2 5.6 6.5


Our votes are with 18-29. We need to get them to vote. they usually don't. WE have to work hard to identify them, or, if we don't, just get all of them to vote.

Men Women
19.0 7.8

Men are twice as likely to support as women.

So, 18-29, men. Get them to the polls. They usually don't vote. They like us, but they don't vote. We need them to vote. We need to work to do this.

Same as South Carolina.


South Carolina

total 18-29 30-45 46-64 65+
Paul 6.9 29.4 5.0 1.7 2.9

In South Carolina, it appears ONLY 18-29 likes us.

men women
11.9 1.9

In South Carolina, it appears ONLY Men like us.

We have to do real, actual work to get 18-29 year old men to the polls.

What is that thing that we're doing to do that? What is the name of that project?
 
69360 said:
There's virtually no positive press for newt. It's about 90% negative.
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We know that we need that crash. I would think having a nasty tv commercial about all the adultery and divorce in the can, ready if necessary would be good.
 
parocks said:
We know that we need that crash. I would think having a nasty tv commercial about all the adultery and divorce in the can, ready if necessary would be good.
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No, Ron is not the one to go negative on personal issues. Let somebody like frothy do it.

At some point going negative on policy flops might be effective if Newt is still a front runner in about 2 weeks, which I doubt.
 
69360 said:
No, Ron is not the one to go negative on personal issues. Let somebody like frothy do it.

At some point going negative on policy flops might be effective if Newt is still a front runner in about 2 weeks, which I doubt.
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I'm talking grassroots. Not official campaign. And I'm not talking about running it now. If these are the numbers on December 26, and we don't have a plan to take Newt down then, and we don't have a program to get our kids to vote, we're in trouble.
 
parocks said:
I'm talking grassroots. Not official campaign. And I'm not talking about running it now. If these are the numbers on December 26, and we don't have a plan to take Newt down then, and we don't have a program to get our kids to vote, we're in trouble.
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These aren't even Newt's numbers now. The poll is BS.
 
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