Insider Advantage FL 13% 3rd place

[JJ2]

Hahaha. Dare to dream. Romney has the money and the organization in place, and he's been waiting since 2008 for his 2nd shot. Romney is NOT going to give this up so easily - he will fight tooth and nail until the bitter end, like Obama and Hillary.

Once Newt starts crushing him in every state, he will not want to endure the embarrassment. 75% of Republicans dislike Romney.

 

[Edward]

In the event anyone is interested,here is the LINK (pdf) to the poll. Interesting to note that Ron is doing the best among likely Hispanic voters.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Florida wouldnt matter if we get 2nd place.

 

[unknown]

Florida wouldnt matter if we get 2nd place.

It matters because of the perception factor.

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

If we can get at least 13%, that should be considered a victory.

If somehow we make it to 20%, that would convince me that the movement is really starting to pick up steam.

 

[Edward]

If we can get at least 13%, that should be considered a victory.

Given recent poll results in Florida, 13% or finishing ahead of Santorum would be fantastic... particularly since the campaign is not focusing on the state.

 

[mmadness]

I dont know what a delegate does but as a RP guy, wouldnt it be a good thing if you were a delegate even if you were "bound" to them. Wink wink.

Don't talk about fight club.

 

[JJ2]

Interesting details from the poll:

Paul leads among Hispanics at 41.5%! We need to turn out the Hispanic vote in Florida!

Paul gets 23% among men, 5% among women! But they polled more women than men, when the 2008 had 56% male, 44% female. This means that he is really above 13% already.

Also, Paul leads among 30-44 year olds, with 30%, but only gets 19.4% among 18-29 year olds.

 

[ord33]

An OATH to the Republican Party of Florida? How does that really work? If you break the oath, what happens? They strip you of being part of the Republican Party for life? What is the punishment? (I'm not advocating breaking the Oath, I'm just wondering if one can even be capable of breaking the Oath and if so what is the punishment?)

The Oath to the Constitution seems much more important to me, but every single one of the candidates other than Paul break it on a regular basis.

Do they even allow the votes for the first three rounds (assuming a brokered convention) from a bound delegate state like Florida or do they automatically count them for the entire state.

I think it would still be worth it for people to get on as a delegate in case the winner of Florida for some reason does drop out of the race. Crazier things have happened. Or if there is a contested brokered convention.

 

[The_Ruffneck]

third with 13% would be a pretty good result

 

[AngryCanadian]

third with 13% would be a pretty good result

Very good and you know what? the poll could be correct, some polls in SC have shown us in 4th place
So this really could be a turning point.

 

[RonPaulMyPresident]

Its better to have Gingrich win Florida than Romney.

Romney is a big threat to Ron Paul while Gingrich isn't. Gingrich might get his popularity in the south, but he'll be in the bottom of the barrel in the North-east and the west coast, not to mention he's not even on ballots in some states. Ron Paul has a good chance of winning California (winner takes all) and thats 172 delegates alone.

Santorum is a nuisance. I hope Santorum spends all his money in Florida and goes broke.

 

[Oddone]

California isn't until June 5th, it is among the last states to vote.. By then it will either already be over, or be a two man race. The question right now is who the two will be. Romney v Paul? or Gingrich V Paul?

 

[Jtorsella]

It would be a huge mistake to compete in Florida. Remember how a few polls convinced us of a surge in SC?

 

[RonPaulMyPresident]

California isn't until June 5th, it is among the last states to vote.. By then it will either already be over, or be a two man race. The question right now is who the two will be. Romney v Paul? or Gingrich V Paul?

It'll be better for Ron Paul if its Gingrich vs Paul in the end.

Independents are not going to vote for Gingrich, women wont vote for Gingrich (3rd wife, open marriage?), Minorities are not going to vote for Gingrich (Food stamp comment), Gays are not going to vote for Gingrich (remember he told an Iowa gay man to vote for Obama), and the youth are not going to vote for Gingrich. And also the 65% of Americans who want an end to all wars wont vote for Gingrich. We saw how he was treated in Iowa. America hates Gingrich. Only some people in the south love him because they see him as one of them.

 

[swiss_supporter]

The campaign has to focus on the following caucus states. A 3rd in Florida sounds good to me.

And please stop to pretend that the polls could be faked. I studied market and opinion research in Switzerland. For what I've seen most of the polls are pretty accurate. Polls are a good indicator, and of course there can be up and downs because people change their minds. The only company that sucks is ARG. Public Policy Polling is in my opinion one of the best researchers in the USA.
The sample matters of course. Let's take Minnesota; there ara a lot of colleges and the sample doesn't include an accurate number of young people. If they turn out and vote it could change everything (see Ventura).

 

[rp2012win]

Tied for 1st in FL with the under 45 vote. That is amazing.

 

[RonPaulMyPresident]

Tied for 1st in FL with the under 45 vote. That is amazing.

The problem with Florida is a lot of old retired folks who never use the internet and rely on Television to gather information on candidates.

The youth is the key. Ron Paul's supporters need to spend more time around colleges and universities convincing the youngsters to go out and vote.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

41% of hispanics! That sure looks good! Gingrich got 25%.

 

[freneticentropy]

Wow, Newt +8 and this is just one day after SC! I told you Newt would be right back on top in FL! Keep in mind also that the SC Insider Advantage poll that came out the day after NH had Paul at 13% in SC, exactly what he got!

Like I said last night, Newt will win in a landslide over Romney in FL, and Romney will drop out soon (hopefully before VA).

VA is on super tuesday. There is NO WAY either Gingrich or Romney will drop out before super tuesday. Depending how it goes, one of them might drop out the day after super tuesday. Santorum might drop out after Florida if he gets 4th, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick around until super tuesday either.