Insider Advantage FL 13% 3rd place

[Karsten]

It's VERY possible that the pollsters are now pumping up Ron's numbers, so that when the primary comes, he fails to meet expectations.

Yeah, I've been wondering that too after our underwhemling Iowa and SC results. We did outperform in NH though, which unfortunately is now old and forgotten news.

 

[sailingaway]

When was it polled?

 

[jkob]

If we could get 15% and 3rd place, it would be a huge accomplishment considering the amount of resources we're putting into Florida. We'll be more competitive in the caucus states in February.

 

[69360]

It's VERY possible that the pollsters are now pumping up Ron's numbers, so that when the primary comes, he fails to meet expectations.

His expectation is last. If they pumped his poll number so he was expected 3rd and got last, it's not much of a story. The story in Fl is mittens and grinch.

will it be scorched earth on gingrich? if so, i can't wait for the show.

I'm expecting the superpacs will unload the mother of all smear campaigns on mittens and the grinch. It should be good for some lulz.

 

[sailingaway]

better if Newt wins Florida instead of Romney; Newt will say or something stupid soon enough.

No, because then he'd be too strong an 'anti Romney' going into Nevada.

 

[69360]

When was it polled?

Today

 

[Karsten]

Why would Ron Paul supporters want a Brokeback Convention?

 

[Lord Xar]

Tate, Benson and crew are too smart for that. Not worried a bit.

They will give it a good try at the Feb caucuses and probably evaluate if they can go forward from there I would think.

We put in resources in 2 south carolina....

 

[Feelgood]

FLORIDA PEEPS!!!

http://rpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2012DelegateOath.pdf

NOTE: You must send the Oath either by registered mail, FedEx, or some method that ensures that it physically arrives at RPOF Headquarters between 12 p.m. January 30 and 12 p.m. February 3. You can also drop it off in person but be certain to hand it directly to a staff member who can verify receipt of the document.

Please become a delegate to the GOP National Convention.

Complete waste of time. Did you read Rule 10 of the Rules of the Republican Party of Florida?

B. The Republican presidential candidate receiving the higher or highest number of votes in any
congressional district shall receive all delegate votes from such congressional district. The Republican
presidential candidate receiving the higher or highest number of statewide votes shall receive all votes of
the Delegates at Large. The Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, or his or her designee, shall be
bound to count and cast all Delegate at Large votes for such candidate during the first three convention
ballots unless the convention rules state that delegates are bound for more than three ballots. If the
candidate to whom the delegate votes are bound releases the delegates or withdraws his or her candidacy,
then said delegate votes will not be bound to any candidate. No delegate, other than the Chairman of the
Republican Party of Florida, or his or her designee, shall be entitled to cast any vote on his or her own
behalf until the fourth convention ballot.

Not gonna waste my time. I become a delegate and am BOUND to Mittens or the Grinch. No thanks.

 

[sailingaway]

We put in resources in 2 south carolina....

but not as many as they originally said, from news reports of what was actually spent. I think their internal polling didn't support it, in the time left. They have really good pollsters.

 

[69360]

We put in resources in 2 south carolina....

It was proportional and the polling picked up a bit. Some resources were called for. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows FL is a sinkhole for campaign cash and it's winner take all. They would never spend there.

I know it's hard for some of us to admit, but the RP campaign is probably going to go into wind down mode soon if the Feb caucuses go badly and there is no path forward. I hope 3rd party run follows.

 

[sailingaway]

Complete waste of time. Did you read Rule 10 of the Rules of the Republican Party of Florida?



Not gonna waste my time. I become a delegate and am BOUND to Mittens or the Grinch. No thanks.

Unbound after three rounds of voting, or if it is someone who loses and releases his delegates. The latter being more likely.

 

[VictorB]

3rd would be nice. A good debate performance tomorrow coupled with great grass roots effort could get us 3rd. That would pretty much close Santorum down. Newt winning would be great, IMO. It means that Romney would go full bore at Newt and Paul could just lay in the weeds picking up support that falls of from those two and their "war".

 

[69360]

Complete waste of time. Did you read Rule 10 of the Rules of the Republican Party of Florida?



Not gonna waste my time. I become a delegate and am BOUND to Mittens or the Grinch. No thanks.

They are looking toward a theoretical brokered convention where you would be unbound on a second ballot. It's a long shot at best but if you are in FL and don't have to travel far to the convention it's worth a shot. You can always back out and let your alternate go if the election turns out to be a blowout for mittens or grinch.

 

[Oddone]

Complete waste of time. Did you read Rule 10 of the Rules of the Republican Party of Florida?



Not gonna waste my time. I become a delegate and am BOUND to Mittens or the Grinch. No thanks.

There is a reason we are becoming delegates even if we have to vote for someone else. You even posted it.

The Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, or his or her designee, shall be
bound to count and cast all Delegate at Large votes for such candidate during the first three convention
ballots unless the convention rules state that delegates are bound for more than three ballots. If the
candidate to whom the delegate votes are bound releases the delegates or withdraws his or her candidacy,
then said delegate votes will not be bound to any candidate. No delegate, other than the Chairman of the
Republican Party of Florida, or his or her designee, shall be entitled to cast any vote on his or her own
behalf until the fourth convention ballot.

If we get into a brokered convention we may need those votes. Also if Newt wins Florida, and then drops out YOU BECOME UNBOUND AND CAN VOTE FOR RON PAUL!

 

[floridasun1983]

IF, and that's a big if, the Grinch wins in Florida, it would signal a full on collapse for Romney. He is spending big money here now, I suspect he senses this. A Grinch win here and a better than expected showing for Dr. Paul could really reshape this thing.

 

[BUSHLIED]

I say Ron could get 16% in Florida. I have been trying to simulate out the state by state percentages based on 2008 polling data. If turn-out is the roughly the same in FL, taking his averages from the IA, NH, and SC...Ron could top out at 16%. This assumes of course, the patterns we have been seeing in polling data and actual exit polling is accurate. 16% in FL should be enough to edge out Santorum if Newt is the new anti-Romney in voters minds. We'll see. It's looking more like Ron will get about 14.9%...perhaps tying Santorum for 3rd in FL...

Ron needs to address the concerns of women if he is going to outperform in FL to get 3rd place.

Interesting that the 3 entrance/exit polls Ron's support among GOP voters ONLY resembles his national polling numbers.

 

[AngryCanadian]

i'd be honestly surprised if newt doesn't self destruct.

Well there is a video of him saying he supported the TARP bailouts by Obama that could hurt him alot.

 

[Feelgood]

Oddly, Grinch are the only ads I have heard on the radio. And Mittens are the only signs I have seen on the street corners.

Grr still feel it will be a waste of my time, but I will go ahead and fill out the application. Its only about a 3 hour drive to the convention, IF it happens.

 

[sailingaway]

I say Ron could get 16% in Florida. I have been trying to simulate out the state by state percentages based on 2008 polling data. If turn-out is the roughly the same in FL, taking his averages from the IA, NH, and SC...Ron could top out at 16%. This assumes of course, the patterns we have been seeing in polling data and actual exit polling is accurate. 16% in FL should be enough to edge out Santorum if Newt is the new anti-Romney in voters minds. We'll see.

Interesting that the 3 entrance/exit polls Ron's support among GOP voters ONLY resembles his national polling numbers.

He had advertising in those other places and the market is too expensive in Florida so they aren't doing it. They did some direct mail to absentee voters and another round and I had read they did a little cable advertising in out of Miami areas, but Ron isn't going to 'hold his own' on advertising in Florida, at all.