In deep red Iowa, new poll shows Harris leading, PolyMarket PA betting lead collapses

[Anti Federalist]

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...ald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.



https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1852863585375977877

 

[Swordsmyth]

Poll: Donald Trump Leading Kamala Harris by 10 Percent In Iowa

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-leading-kamala-harris-by-10-percent-in-iowa/

 

[Anti Federalist]

Poll: Donald Trump Leading Kamala Harris by 10 Percent In Iowa

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-leading-kamala-harris-by-10-percent-in-iowa/

I saw that before and was going to post it...I was wondering why anybody was even bothering posting polling on Iowa.

Not sure which is an outlier, but one obviously is.

 

[Swordsmyth]

 

[Okie RP fan]

I was reading around and I'm not sure if this is true or not, but that poll may have oversampled Dems...

If anyone cares to verify, great. Either way, this poll is a form of propaganda. Effectively, all of them are.

 

[jmdrake]

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...ald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.



https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1852863585375977877

If Trump's lead collapsed in Pennsylvania it's a combination of Tony Hinchcliffe's "joke" and JD Vance's response that people should just "get over it." Be mad at the Puerto Ricans all you want but that was an objectively stupid move by the Trump campaign to have Hinchcliffe perform at all. Trump supporters are upset about the "garbage" comment from Biden? Well Kamala Harris totally disavowed herself from Biden's comments and said she wants to be the president of all voters, even those who didn't vote for her, and she was against disparaging anyone. Hate her all you want, but that's a more effective strategy then saying "People get offended too easily. Just get over it." Trump has made gains in the black and latino communities but he would be much further ahead if he wasn't an ass and he didn't surround himself with other people who were jerks and he occassionaly threw some of these people under the bus the way Kamala just threw Joe Biden under the bus. We'lll see what happens election day.

 

[Swordsmyth]

If Trump's lead collapsed in Pennsylvania

It hasn't.
And nobody blames Trump for a joke by some comedian that was far less offensive than it's made out to be.

Kamala can't shake off Biden because she's made it clear for a long time she shares that opinion.

 

[Snowball]

Trump is not going to lose Iowa. pay no attention.

 

[Anti Federalist]

If Trump's lead collapsed in Pennsylvania it's a combination of Tony Hinchcliffe's "joke" and JD Vance's response that people should just "get over it." Be mad at the Puerto Ricans all you want but that was an objectively stupid move by the Trump campaign to have Hinchcliffe perform at all. Trump supporters are upset about the "garbage" comment from Biden? Well Kamala Harris totally disavowed herself from Biden's comments and said she wants to be the president of all voters, even those who didn't vote for her, and she was against disparaging anyone. Hate her all you want, but that's a more effective strategy then saying "People get offended too easily. Just get over it." Trump has made gains in the black and latino communities but he would be much further ahead if he wasn't an ass and he didn't surround himself with other people who were jerks and he occassionaly threw some of these people under the bus the way Kamala just threw Joe Biden under the bus. We'lll see what happens election day.

Polymarket is some sort of bookie site or gambling tracking site, not sure which.

Word I've been reading is that a couple of whales came in, dumped a few million on Harris to win and flipped the trend in an a hour or so.

Who knows?

I do know at RCP, legit polls that just came out in the last day or so, show the race exactly where it has been for months now.

Trump up 0.3 overall and tied and up 2 in the latest two.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

 

[69360]

It hasn't.
And nobody blames Trump for a joke by some comedian that was far less offensive than it's made out to be.

Kamala can't shake off Biden because she's made it clear for a long time she shares that opinion.

They do blame Trump and there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in PA. I'm not sure of the exact numbers but places in places like Reading and Allentown they may even be a majority by now. It may not matter in the end as they probably were not Republicans anyway.

 

[69360]

Polymarket is some sort of bookie site or gambling tracking site, not sure which.

Word I've been reading is that a couple of whales came in, dumped a few million on Harris to win and flipped the trend in an a hour or so.

Who knows?

I do know at RCP, legit polls that just came out in the last day or so, show the race exactly where it has been for months now.

Trump up 0.3 overall and tied and up 2 in the latest two.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Trump has historically always overperformed the polling. So if that remains the case, he is headed for a convincing win. I'm not really thrilled about another 4 years of him, but I think everything will be fine for the country.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Trump has historically always overperformed the polling. So if that remains the case, he is headed for a convincing win. I'm not really thrilled about another 4 years of him, but I think everything will be fine for the country.

I'm thrilled with the fact that, if everything happens as I am being told, Ron Paul's input will have a significant amount of impact within a new Trump administration.

Now, that's a mighty big "if" and I'm well aware of that.

But it's enough to make me feel positive.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Polymarket betting has Trump back in the lead now - 54 to 47

https://polymarket.com/event/pennsy...vania-presidential-election?tid=1730646806479

 

[spudea]

Poll is trash. Trump wins Iowa.

 

[unknown]

Heavy propaganda coming out of Pennsylvania as well.

 

[sparebulb]

Iowa may go "red" this time, but not for long.

Iowegeans love feckless, neoconish, non-conservatives, but can't quite vote D yet.

Iowa has a huge number of foreign-born immigrants and illegals and they have fully embraced the white demographic genocide.

In short, barely red now........

Very blue in the future.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Iowa may go "red" this time, but not for long.

Iowegeans love feckless, neoconish, non-conservatives, but can't quite vote D yet.

Iowa has a huge number of foreign-born immigrants and illegals and they have fully embraced the white demographic genocide.

In short, barely red now........

Very blue in the future.

That's the future for the whole damn country, not just Iowa.

 

[WarriorLiberty]

Doubt Iowa is going to turn Blue.

 

[Anti Globalist]

Looks more like a push poll at the last minute. Trump will win Iowa easily.

 

[Voluntarist]

Polymarket is some sort of bookie site or gambling tracking site, not sure which.
Word I've been reading is that a couple of whales came in, dumped a few million on Harris to win and flipped the trend in an a hour or so.
Who knows?

Sounds like you're channeling George Carlin.

this country was bought and paid for a long time ago. That empty shit they shuffle around and repackage every four years doesn't mean a thing.

I do know at RCP, legit polls that just came out in the last day or so, show the race exactly where it has been for months now.

Let me start by saying that each conducted poll is a model of the upcoming election. And anyone that works with models will tell you that "All models are wrong, but some are useful. So what are the RCP models useful for? The problem I see with the RCP polling is that each of the RCP polls are a simple average of existing polls. Each of those polls that RCP includes has its own:
- Sampling Bias
- Timing
- Margin of error
- Question wording
- Non-response wording
... so, is it really possible to fuse the individual results into a comprehensible "common operational picture of the battlefield" (to borrow a phrase from the DOD).

I guess what I'm saying is, "at this point, polling is only good for selling air time and column inches". Continuing; at this point, the battleground states are coin flips. That's uncomfortable to human beings. Individuals can't make plans for the future until we know - lest we gamble. I think that all you can say at this point is, "Tuesday will tell".

For pure entertainment value, which is what I get out of elections, nothing ca beat Democrats losing on election night ... it's adolescent angst absent small arms fire.