I'm not good at math, so who can help me with a true delegate count if Benton is right?

Joined
Feb 17, 2008
Messages
198
Let's say that Benton isn't just blowing smoke and we really won (or will win) the most delegates from Iowa, NH, Minn, and now Maine. What do you suspect the true delegate count is right now for all the candidates? How many of those delegates might be bound to someone else other than Paul during early voting based on straw poll results (like in Nevada where they are bound during the first round of national voting but unbound after that)?

Any statisticians, mathematicians, or people just plain good at math who want to take a shot at this?
 
If you want the true math, then you need to realize that there is no way for the campaign or anyone for that matter to count delegates in states that haven't actually selected those delegates yet.

Iowa - 28 Delegates Total, 3 RNC (Unbound), 12 CD (Unbound) elected at CD Presidential Caucus on 4/21/12, 13 AL (Unbound) elected at State Convention 6/16/12.
Iowa Summary - There is no way to know the true delegate count for Iowa until after the State Convention on 6/16/12 and since ALL of Iowa's delegates are unbound, we won't know which delegates from Iowa vote for Ron Paul until the National Convention.
True Iowa Delegates for Ron Paul = 0 (same for every other candidate)
Speculated Iowa Delegates for Ron Paul = ???

NH - 12 Delegates Total (Rule 16 penalty -12 delegates), 12 proportionally bound delegates (10% threshold) elected at 1/8/2012 primary via candidate slate.
NH Summary - There is no special unbinding mechanism. Romney picked up 7 bound, Paul picked up 3 bound, Huntsman picked up 2 bound. Delegates bound to a candidate are (released) free to vote for who ever there next choice is.
True NH Delegates for Ron Paul - 3
Speculated Delegates for Ron Paul - ??? not less than 3 or more than 5

Minn - 40 Delegates Total, 3 RNC (Unbound), 24 CD (Unbound) elected at CD Convention 4/21/12, 13 AL (Unbound unless State Convention votes to bind) elected at State Convention on 5/5/12
Minn Summary - There is no way to no the true delegate count until after the CD and State Conventions. Again, we know that 27 and possible ALL delegates will enter the national convention unbound, so until that vote occurs and number can only be speculated.
True Minn Delegates for Ron Paul - 0 (same for every other candidate)
Speculated Delegates for Ron Paul - ???

Maine - Same story... for the sake of brevity, 5/5/12 is when Maine elects nation convention delegates. Since they are all unbound, there is just no way to know how many Ron Paul will have until they actually vote at the nation convention.
True Maine Delegates - 0 (Same for every other candidate)
Speculated Maine Delegates - ???

So unless you want to speculate, of all the states you mentioned, Ron Paul has a total of 3 THREE true delegates. I am sure there will be unbound delegates for Ron Paul who are going to vote for him at national convention. How many? We really can't begin to build a solid case until the process of delegate election is over in those states. Unless someone has a list of all the stage one delegate election processes for those states, there are 2 more stages to go, and those people would need to be contacted and then trusted to tell the truth about what they plan to do. PURE speculation at this point.
 
Back
Top