I'm afraid to ask, but how's it looking in Washington to those IN Washington?

JK/SEA said:
I live in Washington, and i will be a delegate at my county convention, and will remain so whether i caucus or not.
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I hope you will caucus. What they announce will be the straw poll and while the delegates are the most substantive thing, we could really use momentum
 
sailingaway said:
I hope you will caucus. What they announce will be the straw poll and while the delegates are the most substantive thing, we could really use momentum
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True enough. In 2008, i was in the same position as this time, only in 08 i got elected to the State Convention, and if i recall, Ron didn't do as well in the polls either...but at the State Convention, Ron Paul supporters (delegates all) were coming out of the woodwork, and we shook the GOP to their core, even though we failed to get a majority...it was effing close. Proved to me that straw polls are non-sensical, and i do understand about 'perception', but apparently...WE ARE OUT HERE In spite of......just getting in as delegates is the real game now. We can't stop donating just yet...

the eleventh hour for Ron in Washington State is here, and the County Conventions are the next battlefield
 
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I would say over half the supporters I've ID'd through canvassing and other activities either never bothered registering to vote or aren't showing up at the caucus and many of these people did go to one of the rallies. I even talked to some half a dozen times about registering to vote. Most supporters just don't want to actually do anything to support Paul other than show up at rallies or sign up with us on campus. When it comes time to do something I'll be happy if a quarter of those I've identified actually show up at the caucus (this would be around 30 people).
 
ssjevot said:
I would say over half the supporters I've ID'd through canvassing and other activities either never bothered registering to vote or aren't showing up at the caucus and many of these people did go to one of the rallies. I even talked to some half a dozen times about registering to vote. Most supporters just don't want to actually do anything to support Paul other than show up at rallies or sign up with us on campus. When it comes time to do something I'll be happy if a quarter of those I've identified actually show up at the caucus (this would be around 30 people).
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Obama's campaign had the same problem with young people. You simply have to keep bombarding them over and over and over and over again.
 
JK/SEA said:
30?...we'll take it.
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I don't have a final count on the number of supporters I ID'd and I worked as loosely as I could with the official campaign (though they did invite me to their private get together at Bellevue tonight after the Seattle rally which was nice) because they give you **** pamphlets that make people not want to vote for Paul with the Tea Party stuff on the back. I used custom flyers that I designed and printed and passed them around the U-District working with the local Youth for Ron Paul and we were very effective. We could have been more effective and learned a lot more trick for the future, but I can tell you every time I canvassed with the official campaign or phone banked I got less supporters per hour than when we just did the stuff we planned out grassroots style.

For instance we gave out free candy to have people vote in a straw poll and then took the information from all the Ron Paul voters and gave them caucus information. That nets us about 5 supporters an hour and the candy is like 3 dollars a bag. The flyers we made cost nothing since the UW campus gives all students groups flyers and we would leave them in public areas as well as pass them out to people (they contain caucus information on the back and stuff about being anti-war, anti-drug war, anti corporate bailouts, and fine with legal gay marriage, stuff people in Seattle actually give a damn about).

That said for all our effort the followup of me contacting the supporters I've indentified has been very depressing. Many didn't register despite repeated reminders, many aren't going to vote because even though they knew the time and place it's just too much effort (though going to a rally is no problem). That said I think between 30-50 will show up, and I know other members have ID'd other supporters, so I'd say our group as a whole is bringing over a hundred in the Seattle area.
 
ssjevot said:
I don't have a final count on the number of supporters I ID'd and I worked as loosely as I could with the official campaign (though they did invite me to their private get together at Bellevue tonight after the Seattle rally which was nice) because they give you **** pamphlets that make people not want to vote for Paul with the Tea Party stuff on the back. I used custom flyers that I designed and printed and passed them around the U-District working with the local Youth for Ron Paul and we were very effective. We could have been more effective and learned a lot more trick for the future, but I can tell you every time I canvassed with the official campaign or phone banked I got less supporters per hour than when we just did the stuff we planned out grassroots style.

For instance we gave out free candy to have people vote in a straw poll and then took the information from all the Ron Paul voters and gave them caucus information. That nets us about 5 supporters an hour and the candy is like 3 dollars a bag. The flyers we made cost nothing since the UW campus gives all students groups flyers and we would leave them in public areas as well as pass them out to people (they contain caucus information on the back and stuff about being anti-war, anti-drug war, anti corporate bailouts, and fine with legal gay marriage, stuff people in Seattle actually give a damn about).

That said for all our effort the followup of me contacting the supporters I've indentified has been very depressing. Many didn't register despite repeated reminders, many aren't going to vote because even though they knew the time and place it's just too much effort (though going to a rally is no problem). That said I think between 30-50 will show up, and I know other members have ID'd other supporters, so I'd say our group as a whole is bringing over a hundred in the Seattle area.
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Agreed. The youth vote just sucks. It's difficult to work with people who just don't really care when it comes down to the wire.
 
RabbitMan said:
Agreed. The youth vote just sucks. It's difficult to work with people who just don't really care when it comes down to the wire.
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You have no idea. I added one girl in my precinct to my friends on Facebook. Took her to a rally, kept reminding her to register to vote, she kept not responding. She responds to anything not related to registering to vote. Finally gets past the point she can do it by mail so I offer to take her in person. She agrees to today, the last possible day to register in WA, I arrange for my fiance to pick her up at 9 AM and drop her off at work after. She doesn't answer her door or respond to us and hasn't responded to anything since. She literally put effort into not registering to vote and strung us along. It's almost cruel.
 
Wyoming was and still is something that I can not understand. out of 500000 population campaign and grassroots couldnt get 2000 people to show up!!! I am not capable to understand this.

How things will go in Washington? I got no idea but i am skeptical when people say Ron will win.
 
jemuf said:
If you can buy a gun can't you at least vote in a caucus?
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Have you said that to them? if they dont get the importance, put it in numbers. The campaign and pacs have spent what? A million, 2 million in WA to hopefully get 6000 votes? Thats like 200 bucks a vote. Donated by normal people like many on this board and maybe even you. People that care deeply about our future politically. If they bought silver, show them the vid with paul showing a silver dollar to bernanke 2 days ago or so.

Please just call up your best friends at work in the morning and explain the importance. Washington could bring a huge momentum for Paul in the race. Talk about the extreem volatility sofar and that it could happen to Paul to such a ridiculous surge and that he still could be the nominee. It´s much more effective to call people you know than to do phone from home.
 
JK/SEA said:
True enough. In 2008, i was in the same position as this time, only in 08 i got elected to the State Convention, and if i recall, Ron didn't do as well in the polls either...but at the State Convention, Ron Paul supporters (delegates all) were coming out of the woodwork, and we shook the GOP to their core, even though we failed to get a majority...it was effing close. Proved to me that straw polls are non-sensical, and i do understand about 'perception', but apparently...WE ARE OUT HERE In spite of......just getting in as delegates is the real game now. We can't stop donating just yet...

the eleventh hour for Ron in Washington State is here, and the County Conventions are the next battlefield
Click to expand...

I would LOVE a first place straw poll finish. But come what may, in WA or any other state, this race isn't over until after the finally ballot of the convention in Florida. This race matters, and I for one will fight every step of the way, in my opinion Liberty deserves nothing less.

ps ~ seems I can't give you any more rep just yet, but I approve of your post :)
 
ello folks, in my denver precinct it took 6 people to win for ron paul! door to door knocking is where it is at. I have 0 faith in phones as my district was called many times but what got folks to the caucus was my door knocking! I asked all 5 (not including myself) rp supporters at caucus. it was door knocking! 2 santorum and newt supporters also came due to door knocking and they voted for me as a delegate so i got 8 votes out of 10 people. The other 2 were attendees from 2008. bottom line 6-8 people is all it took to secure Ron Paul in my precinct.
 
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sailingaway said:
Nate Silver ‏ @fivethirtyeight
So far this cycle, polls conducted 6-10 days before a primary/caucus have missed the final margin by an average of 12 points (!)

and the reason other pollsters aren't polling Washington is because of the unpredictability of polling a caucus. also see PPP's memo explaining why Nevada, I think it was, wasn't possible to actually be predicted hence their errors weren't their fault.
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Of course a poll 10 days out will miss the final margin because you have 4 to 8 people running where the race is very fluid with movement. Pollsters cannot even predict the final margin a day before if there is serious movement with 1 or more candidate as in Iowa, SC, MN, etc. Why would you think they could predict 10 days out? Polls are a snap shot for that time.

PPP nailed Nevada within the margin of error for Paul - had him @ 15%, ended up with 19% - and had the correct order for all. And their poll for MN had Santorum surging extremely fast in MN just like in Iowa, while Romney was tanking in MN and the bottom three were all bunched up. That does not make their polls inaccurate because polls can't predict future margins when movement is happening with more than 4-8 people running. It's a little bit more difficult.

Now if anyone can show polling data in WA that shows Ron surging or the race being fluid in that state, then no, PPP's latest poll might be off. But that isn't the case.
 
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Barrex said:
Wyoming was and still is something that I can not understand. out of 500000 population campaign and grassroots couldnt get 2000 people to show up!!! I am not capable to understand this.

How things will go in Washington? I got no idea but i am skeptical when people say Ron will win.
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You have to be skeptical. The entire strategy of the campaign and many in RPF has a been a failed strategy. It's all been about the youth vote who don't vote and hoping to win with Independents and Democrats. I have tried to educate the people in these forums on how to win the "Republican" nomination but too many still have blinders on promoting the same failed strategies.

Then everyone scratches their heads and wonder why we lose. It's very frustrating. You can go back before Iowa where I said unless Ron did well with the older Republican base, he will lose. I continued to say such many times after many different states. Yet, the blinders are still on...

And that is why in closed primaries, Ron is getting killed unfortunately like in CO, AZ, FL and even in NV where Ron only got 11% of the 65 and older vote. Just imagine for one second everyone, if Ron was competitive with the 45-64 and 65/older demographic. We don't have to win those age groups, just do better. Those 2 age groups make up 65-75% of the voting bloc.

For 65 and older which is usually a third of the votes, Ron received...

3% in FL
7% in SC
11% in NV
12% in NH

Sorry but that is a losing strategy. In a 4 way race now, you best be pulling 20-25% range for the 65 age group to come in first and/or a strong second. If Ron does that, WE WIN.

Turn out is always LOW in primaries and caucuses. And old people vote and tend to be more religious. That is all you have to know in developing a strategy to win the "Republican" primaries and caucuses. It's just reality.

If Ron does well in WA with the older crowd, we could win. If he does weak, we lose. It's that straight forward.
 
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