If Ron Paul wins Maine...

[ItsTime]

The FSP helped get the Republicans a SUPER MAJORITY in the house and senate in New Hampshire and they worked hard repealing as many laws as they could. Now the GOP establishment is shooting themselves in the foot by going after gay marriage.

 

[Darthbrooklyn]

Anyone giving odds on a Maine win for RP?

*Popcorn*

Intrade.com has Paul at 25% for Maine..

 

[jllundqu]

Intrade.com has Paul at 25% for Maine..

Yousa!

That is less than favorable...

*Spits out popcorn*
*Picks up whiskey bottle*

 

[TravisforPaul]

Why is Intrade always brought up on these forums? Isn't this just placing bets and essentially gambling? Hey I bet one of you Ron Paul will win Maine, and if you bet he wont, guess what he now has a 50% chance to win!

 

[Keith and stuff]

Maybe they are contemplating the safest place to live after this election. I know I am. It's going to be NH or ME for me.

Why on earth would you consider ME? ME isn't at all a free place. Liberty loving people move from ME to NH, not the other way around. There is some element of libertarianism in the ME GOP. There is some element of liberalism in the ME Democratic Party. Because of those elements, ME does OK on some social issues.

Compare that to NH. There are more elements of libertarianism in the NH GOP, by far, than in any other state. How else do you explain that around 90 members of the NH House are libertarians? How else do you explain that more legislatures in NH endorsed Ron Paul than all other states combined? How else do you explain that NH cut it's state budget last year by more than any other state has cut a state budget since the WWII era? How else do you explain that far for pro-liberty laws passed in NH last year than any other state? How else do you explain that NH had been rated the freest state for years now?

BTW, Ron Paul has done far better in NH this election than in any other state, ever. Nothing from 2008 comes even close to how well Ron Paul did in NH this year.

Highest percentage of total population voting for RP, by state:
1. NH: 4.3%
2. SC: 1.7%
3. Iowa: 0.9%
4. FL: 0.6%
5. MO: 0.5%
6. MN: 0.3%
7. NV: 0.2%
8. CO: 0.2%

 

[jllundqu]

Why is Intrade always brought up on these forums? Isn't this just placing bets and essentially gambling? Hey I bet one of you Ron Paul will win Maine, and if you bet he wont, guess what he now has a 50% chance to win!

I'm not betting, in fact I'm doing all I can to ensure a win, but I do want to know what people think our chances of a 1st place finish are.

 

[69360]

Anyone giving odds on a Maine win for RP?

*Popcorn*

50/50 realistically. I have a bad feeling Romney is going to fly into Portland today and pick up a lot of votes in the largest caucus.

NH-

NO SALES TAX

NO INCOME TAX

WHAT THE F*CK ARE WE ARGUING?

+ no gun laws, no seat belt laws and no car insurance.

Why on earth would you consider ME? ME isn't at all a free place. Liberty loving people move from ME to NH, not the other way around. There is some element of libertarianism in the ME GOP. There is some selectmen of liberalism in the ME Democratic Party. Because of those elements, ME does OK on some social issues.

Compare that to NH. There are more elements of libertarianism in the NH GOP, by far, than in any other state. How else do you explain that around 90 members of the NH House are libertarians? How else do you explain that more legislatures in NH endorsed Ron Paul than all other states combined? How else do you explain that NH cut it's state budget last year by more than any other state has cut a state budget since the WWII era? How else do you explain that far for pro-liberty laws passed in NH last year than any other state? How else do you explain that NH had been rated the freest state for years now?

BTW, Ron Paul has done far better in NH this election than in any other state, ever. Nothing from 2008 comes even close to how well Ron Paul did in NH this year.

Highest percentage of total population voting for RP, by state:
1. NH: 4.3%
2. SC: 1.7%
3. Iowa: 0.9%
4. FL: 0.6%
5. MO: 0.5%
6. MN: 0.3%
7. NV: 0.2%
8. CO: 0.2%

I've spent a lot of time in both. I like Maine from midcoast up better than NH, just personal preference I feel comfortable there. NH has better laws of course.

 

[Darthbrooklyn]

Why is Intrade always brought up on these forums? Isn't this just placing bets and essentially gambling? Hey I bet one of you Ron Paul will win Maine, and if you bet he wont, guess what he now has a 50% chance to win!

Im just posting what Intrades prediction is.. Take it easy tiger..

 

[JamesButabi]

The Free State Project moving technically hasn't even launched yet. Everything that has been accomplished there has been done with early movers (which just eclipsed 1,000) who have decided not to wait for 20,000 signers.

If anything the FSP project has been verified as an idea that will work and deserves more attention. If noticeable changes are occurring with 1,000 people, 20,000 people would surely yield some extremely significant changes. I think once 2012 is finished, if Ron Paul does not end up on top, the FSP is something this forum and RP supporters in general should seriously consider spearheading. It would be a great transition of activism and show big results.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Ya, big difference between a caucus than a primary.

That is certainly true. Primaries tend to be much more fair and easy to understand. They tend to attract a lot of people. Caucuses tend to be more confusing and hard to understand. Sometimes, as is the case in ME, hardly anyone votes in caucuses.

In 2008, Ron Paul's best primary was in NH. http://freestateproject.org/community/essays/2008_nh_primary_impact

If ME had a primary in 2012 Mitt Romney would take 1st place by a wide margin and Ron Paul would likely take either 2nd, 3rd or 4th place. To say otherwise means that you don't understand ME politics. However, Ron Paul doing well in a Republican primary isn't the most important thing in the world for liberty in that state. If Ron Paul does well in a leftest leaning state like MN or ME, that's great for the GOP but the state still leans leftest. If Ron Paul does well in a freedom leaning state like NH or CO, that is much more meaningful as a way to measure the possible effectiveness of lots of liberty lovers moving their. Unfortunately, Ron Paul took 2nd out of 30 candidates in NH but only 4th out of 4 candidates in CO. That sucks for CO but there is still no possible way to deny that CO is a lot more free than either MN or ME.

 

[DanConway]

That is certainly true. Primaries tend to be much more fair and easy to understand. They tend to attract a lot of people. Caucuses tend to be more confusing and hard to understand. Sometimes, as is the case in ME, hardly anyone votes in caucuses.

In 2008, Ron Paul's best primary was in NH. http://freestateproject.org/community/essays/2008_nh_primary_impact

If ME had a primary in 2012 Mitt Romney would take 1st place by a wide margin and Ron Paul would likely take either 2nd, 3rd or 4th place. To say otherwise means that you don't understand ME politics. However, Ron Paul doing well in a Republican primary isn't the most important thing in the world for liberty in that state. If Ron Paul does well in a leftest leaning state like MN or ME, that's great for the GOP but the state still leans leftest. If Ron Paul does well in a freedom leaning state like NH or CO, that is much more meaningful as a way to measure the possible effectiveness of lots of liberty lovers moving their. Unfortunately, Ron Paul took 2nd out of 30 candidates in NH but only 4th out of 4 candidates in CO. That sucks for CO but there is still no possible way to deny that CO is a lot more free than either MN or ME.

2nd of 30 is disingenuous, considering only about 6 were serious.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

wasnt Maine ignored by the media back in 2008?

 

[Keith and stuff]

2nd of 30 is disingenuous, considering only about 6 were serious.

I don't think it is disingenuous at all. It is the reality. Many of the others were campaigning. They were in debates, on TV and radio. They were talked about.
There were also 14 official candidates and 3 notable write-ins in the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Of those 17 candidates, Ron Paul took 2nd.

Ron Paul got over 59,000 votes in NH. Obama only got 49,000 votes in NH. Ron Paul got 17% more votes in NH than Obama did in NH.

What about Ron Paul's very strong showing in the New Hampshire Primary giving Ron Paul a 70% ( http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?topic=24873.msg273745#msg273745 ) boost in the South Carolina Primary polls and a 25% ( http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry....ampshire-Boosted-his-Support-by-25-Nationally ) boost nationally?

 

[tbone717]

Too frikkin' cold. Go for a free county project somewhere in the south. I am in N Ga mtns and no one bothers me, guns are going off all the time and the weather is awesome. About 100 days a year the wind is over 5 mph..rarely above 15...never been a destructive tornado. The woods are full of deer and turkey, the river full of trout and bass, the lake has 10 pound walleyes.

Rev9

My car is packed and ready to go, just PM me with your address and we'll be there to settle in LOL

 

[tbone717]

wasnt Maine ignored by the media back in 2008?

Usually it is. The drawn out process, the low turnout and (to some degree) it's geographic isolation fdoesn't make it much of an exciting news story. Add to that the results are coming in on a weekend, which tends to be a slow news day.

 

[DanConway]

I don't think it is disingenuous at all. It is the reality. Many of the others were campaigning. They were in debates, on TV and radio. They were talked about.
There were also 14 official candidates and 3 notable write-ins in the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Of those 17 candidates, Ron Paul took 2nd.

Ron Paul got over 59,000 votes in NH. Obama only got 49,000 votes in NH. Ron Paul got 17% more votes in NH than Obama did in NH.

What about Ron Paul's very strong showing in the New Hampshire Primary giving Ron Paul a 70% ( http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?topic=24873.msg273745#msg273745 ) boost in the South Carolina Primary polls and a 25% ( http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry....ampshire-Boosted-his-Support-by-25-Nationally ) boost nationally?

If someone has dropped out, they're not a serious candidate anymore. If someone has only filed in New Hampshire, they're not serious. If they're named Vermin Supreme, they're not serious.

It's irrelevant and meaningless that Obama, running uncontested (so no other serious candidates), didn't have many people bother to vote for him.

This is like saying he was 3rd in the Presidential race in 1988, as if that means anything more than that he got .5% of the vote behind two serious candidates. I thought we were past that.

But yes, Paul did have a strong showing in New Hampshire. Now he needs a stronger showing in Maine.

 

[rp2012win]

Usually it is. The drawn out process, the low turnout and (to some degree) it's geographic isolation fdoesn't make it much of an exciting news story. Add to that the results are coming in on a weekend, which tends to be a slow news day.

that is true but maine is now more important because romney is desperate for a win and he has increased the stakes by campaigning there today and tomorrow

 

[Keith and stuff]

If they're named Vermin Supreme, they're not serious.

It's irrelevant and meaningless that Obama, running uncontested (so no other serious candidates), didn't have many people bother to vote for him.

This is like saying he was 3rd in the Presidential race in 1988, as if that means anything more than that he got .5% of the vote behind two serious candidates. I thought we were past that.

But yes, Paul did have a strong showing in New Hampshire. Now he needs a stronger showing in Maine.

Except of the 14 official candidates and 3 notable write-ins in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, Ron Paul got 2nd with 4% of the vote.

I agree that Paul did by far better in NH than he did anywhere else. I also agree that he needs to get a higher percentage of the few 1000 people that vote in ME. Unfortunately, I don't even know if winning ME will give Ron Paul a 25% nationally like Ron Paul got from his success in NH. I think Ron Paul really needs another national boost like he got from NH. Unfortunately, that has happened because of Ron Paul's success in any other state yet and I doub't ME will do it. Maybe if Ron Paul wins 50% of the vote in ME that could happen.

 

[tbone717]

that is true but maine is now more important because romney is desperate for a win and he has increased the stakes by campaigning there today and tomorrow

Oh I agree it is important to win. Just don'e expect fireworks to go off if he does. This won't get the coverage that the other contests have gotten. It just isn't made for TV like IA, NH and SC is.

 

[rp2012win]

Oh I agree it is important to win. Just don'e expect fireworks to go off if he does. This won't get the coverage that the other contests have gotten. It just isn't made for TV like IA, NH and SC is.

anyone who doesn't think it's a big deal, wait till paul gets 2nd and then you'll find out how big a deal it was.