If Ron Paul gets 20% in South Carolina, then....

[BUSHLIED]

The campaign must target the senior voters, which they have not. They need to target the evangelicals in SC, which the pro-life ads may help with. A "BIG DOG" style ad, showing RP gets the most money from military members would probably be helpful as well.
If the RP campaign seriously cannot beat Mitt Romney in South Carolina, the campaign is over.

I happen to agree.

IF RON cannot outperform Mitt Romney in SC, how can he win in other States?? Sure Ron can win the remaining 13 caucuses BUT that is not going to get him close to denying Romney the delegates needed to win. Many of us said it a long time ago, SENIORS, SENIORS, SENIORS....you need to get at least 20% of the SENIOR vote to remain competitive, which means 1st or 2nd place. Romney is going to go for the coastline to pick up moderates there. Ron has to cut into that while holding his own upstate against Santorum/Newt/Perry....

Most likely result

Newt
Santorum
Paul
Romney

Ideal Result
Newt
Paul
Santorum
Perry
Romney

The problem is that all 4 candidate are competing for the conservative evangelical vote...Ron has the capcitity to broaden his base which he absolutely must do to win/place/show here.

 

[BUSHLIED]

Exactly, this is only the 3rd state there are 47 more plus the territories. It would be bad if 3 states get to choose a party nominee without the other 47 even participating. Ron Paul last time kept going and ended up doing better later in the game than the beginning. We are doing much better this time around. Being included in the top 3 position should be the goal for SC.

The only reason he did better was because people dropped out BUT he still got crushed....Ron needs to win a primary..

 

[mosquitobite]

My opinion is that we would want to Newt to win. Yes, the media would start pumping him as the anti-romney, but he really has no way of actually winning the nomination. If Romney wins, the media will basically give him the nomination.

I'm not so sure that's a bad thing either.

Once the media declares Romney king (oops I mean the nominee), voter turnout will decrease. IMO, that only helps us.

 

[thoughtomator]

Mitt is at 23% and falling... it's possible that a) Gingrich will win SC; and b) Ron Paul bests Romney

 

[gerryb]

Best Case Scenario:

Romney
Grinch
Santorum
Paul

Hopefully we can move into #3 or 2.

We need the narrative to continue to be we are the anti-romney.. We'll pick that moniker back up in Nevada and after.

 

[Mini-Me]

Best Case Scenario:

Romney
Grinch
Santorum
Paul

Hopefully we can move into #3 or 2.

We need the narrative to continue to be we are the anti-romney.. We'll pick that moniker back up in Nevada and after.

That's like...the worst case scenario that haunts my dreams at night. That order has Romney solidifying his lead, while both Gingrich AND Santorum are seen above Ron Paul, which instantly kills our "anti-Romney" narrative. Aside from adding Huntsman to the mix, how could it POSSIBLY be any worse? LOL

I'm not so sure that's a bad thing either.

Once the media declares Romney king (oops I mean the nominee), voter turnout will decrease. IMO, that only helps us.

That's a double-edged sword though. We really need to get more exposure before the media pulls the plug on covering the whole race. The more people see us as Romney's only credible competitor before everything "goes dark," the better.

 

[rs-fl]

I believe Ron Paul can win South Carolina easily.

Do you remember Alvin Greene? No money. No campaign. Never left his house. He received 100K votes.

This is an open primary. If you direct the campaign towards the Democrats and let the other slice and dice the Republican vote RP is home free!

He just needs to enunciate his positions on the War on Drugs, and the justice system to the Democrat community.

 

[tremendoustie]

Sorry, this thread is useless. Daydreaming about who we want to do well is a complete waste of time. Strategizing about what to do to get the most possible votes is useful, and practical grassroots action is even more so.

 

[FreeTraveler]

I can see a huge advantage to finishing third in SC.

We'll dump a bunch of these negative nannies who keep insisting we must win every state or we'll be done, and the attitude here will actually improve.

 

[Paul or not at all]

If Ron Paul and Mitt romney are in the top 2, that is great for us. If Ron Paul is in the top 3, it is good (not great unless we win)no matter what.

 

[speciallyblend]

3rd or higher and ron paul is fine. I think it would be best to have newt win,romney 2nd but i would perfer Ron Paul in 1st

 

[Rincewind]

In a scenario where Paul doesn't win, I'd rather see Romney win with Paul second, because I would like to see the rest of the field shrink, and I like the idea of a one-on-one primary against Romney.

 

[trey4sports]

I believe Ron Paul can win South Carolina easily.

Do you remember Alvin Greene? No money. No campaign. Never left his house. He received 100K votes.

This is an open primary. If you direct the campaign towards the Democrats and let the other slice and dice the Republican vote RP is home free!

He just needs to enunciate his positions on the War on Drugs, and the justice system to the Democrat community.

with all due respect, that theory has never panned out. Dem's don't vote in the GOP.

 

[Delivered4000]

We do NOT want Gingrich to win people

 

[asurfaholic]

I'm sorry, but perhaps you could tell us what is, because if RP does not win in SC, he has not finished first anywhere, and the likely chances of him doing so moving forward diminishes greatly...as we know Florida isn't being concentrated on very much by the campaign.

This guy keeps posting negative stuff before every vote...

 

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

 

[doctorfunk]

I think it would be best for Ron Paul if the field shrinks. If the race goes dark for a while, it would probably also be a benefit. If people think it's already locked up, the weak Romney supports or those only voting for the front runner might stay home.

 

[JJ2]

If Romney wins, it is all over.

If Paul does not win, it's essentially all over.

The faster people realize this the better.

 

[Jack Bauer]

We do NOT want Gingrich to win people

I disagree.

We need Gingrich and Santorum to win in SC and FL.

Take away a little bit of that Romney electability aura.

Gingrich and Santorum will self implode anyway.

 

[opinionatedfool]

We do NOT want Gingrich to win people

I agree. The man is an evil, dirty politician who will do anything to win. I hope he uses up all his money and his PAC's money hammering Romney. I also hope that Romney spends most of his money hammering Newt. Hopefully this brings both of them down to 20 (or less ofcourse). Hopefully Perry and Santorum use up their money hammering them as well. If any of them get ahead to much, the campaign could slam them in the last few days (to prevent them from having enough time to respond). With this scenario (assuming Santorum doesn't surge to much) we could pull in a 1st place with 21 or so. This would require surging 7 or 8 points.

Optimistic, I know, but I think it could work.